March 22, 2007 at 12:02 #1829
Reading a book entitled, ‘Wining Horse Racing Formulae’ I found it extolling the virtues of Reverse Labouchere staking as a credible staking plan for short odds selections. This was fortuitous as I had just discovered a selection system which requires such a plan, ‘The Simple Short Odds System’. Being quick thinking I thought marry the two together and eureka the perfect thread to beguile the members of TRF (well some of them? Perhaps Artemis!).
"The Reverse Labouchere
A staking plan often credited with near-magical properties is the Reverse Labouchere system borrowed from the world of the casino……When used for horse racing it must be worked only on favourites offering the prospect of a high winning percentage, and the fact that a horse is like to start at odds-on is no reason for excluding it. The system is one that calls for increases in stakes after winners. Winners rather than proces are the most important consideration.
1 Write down a series of consecutive numbers from 1 upwards. For horse racing 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 is recommended. This line will be the initial arbiter of stakes and is adjusted after each bet.
2 Always stake the the sum of the first and last number in the line. Cross these off after a loser, but add the winning stake to the end of the line after a winner.
3 If all the numbers in the line are eventually crossed off, start a new line of 1 to 7.
The effect of these rules is that stakes rise very rapidly on a run of winners, but are cut back fairly gradually when losers are encountered. A high level of staking throughout is characteristic of the plan.
(Here is the clever bit lol) Reverse Labouchere staking must be operated with a predetermined ‘check-out’ point. On an opening stake of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£8 , a gain of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100 seem a reasonable goal. This should be put aside as an accumulated gain and the stake put back immediately to the original Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£8 as the start of a new coup, again with a target of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100."
Simple Short Odds System
The following letter was published in the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap book in October 1973 and is quoted almost verbatim.
ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œ Methodmaker made reference in a recent article to betting forecasts, and as I believe them to be a good guide to the relative chances held by horses in a race, exploitation is surely called for.
Using a well known daily newspaper I study the betting forecast and formulate a ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‹Å“short listÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ from which I hope a final selection or selections will emerge.
To obtain the short list the following rules are observed: –
1.Note horses in the forecast quoted favourite at less than 6-4, second favourites at less than 2-1 and third favourites at less than 4-1.<br>2.Delete any race in which more than one qualifier emerges. The remaining horses constituting the short list.<br>3. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Each short list selection is then examined more closely by applying ones own racing knowledge in order to eliminate those found wanting, those remaining being the final selections.ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚ÂMarch 22, 2007 at 12:21 #62791
I knew there were a few qualifiers but I never expected this many, are the bookies deperessing the odds of late? How depressing lol.
Lud 2.00 Marvellous Dream – stake 8pts lost<br>Lud 2.30 Muhtenbar –stake 8pts lost
Ayr 2.50 Amstecos – stake 8 pts won 1/2 = +4<br>Lud 3.00 L’Oudon – stake 11pts lost<br>Ayr 3.20 First Look – stake 9pts won 4/9 = +3.55<br>Ayr 3.50 Idarah – stake 13pts lost<br>Lud 4.30 Mouseski – stake 5pts won 11/4 = +13.75pts<br>Lud 5.00 Tara Queen – stake 10pts lost
Ayr 5.20 Massasoit – stake 8pts won 2/7 = +2.28
Result = +24.03 -50 = -25.97pts. Bank 135.97. Next stake 9pts.
Quick, somebody chuck me the filters! lol
(Edited by Formath at 4:58 pm on Mar. 23, 2007)March 23, 2007 at 08:20 #62793ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
Good luck with this. The words ‘casino’, ‘simple’ and ‘short odds’ should always be accompanied by a warning to proceed with caution.
All roulette systems have now been discreditted by running them as computer simulations. They all lost eventually.
There is nothing simple about the chaos that is a horse race, but there is a glimmer of hope for horses at very short odds, which have proved profitable for long periods provided you select your races very carefully.
I’m off on holiday for a few weeks. I’ll be interested to see how you get on.March 23, 2007 at 12:27 #62795
Mar 23, 2007
Lin 2.00 Zarzu – stake 9pts lost<br>Nwb 2.10 Mark The Book – stake 9pts lost<br>Lin 3.05 Musical Locket – stake 9pts lost<br>Wol 3.30 Fantastic Cee – Stake 9pts lost
Result = -36pts, bank 99.97pts
(Edited by Formath at 5:03 pm on Mar. 23, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:03 pm on Mar. 23, 2007)March 23, 2007 at 20:35 #62796dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
Hi Alan .. I think you might need a better strike rate than that system is giving you. Why don’t you just back the horse forecast at the second shortest price in the Racing Post. If joint fewest runners, if still joint best form LTO ?
I have never looked at this sort of staking before.March 24, 2007 at 12:04 #62798
Dave,<br>It’s more like a miracle required than a better strike-rate at this stage of the proceedings lol. Not so much the strike-rate as pattern of results needing a run of winners. Anyway I have to go with the flow and stick to the system even if all it does in the end is to confirm Morton Cole’s statement, ‘The only thing that really matters is the odds.’
Ban 2.15 Lady Maranzi – stake 8pts won 4/7 = +4.57pts<br>Ban 2.45 Barbers Shop – stake 9pts lost<br>Kem 4.45 Geordie Land – stake 9 pts lost
Result = +4.57 -18 = -13.43. Bank 86.54
(Edited by Formath at 12:42 pm on Mar. 25, 2007)March 25, 2007 at 11:46 #62801
Sou 2.30 Clearly In Motion – stake 9pts won 8/11 = +8.18<br>Sou 3.30 Golden Child – stake 12 lost<br>Kem 4.50 Chicken Soup – stake 10 lost<br>Sou 5.00 Turbo Linn – stake 5 pts won 1/4 = +1.25
Result = -12.57. Bank 73.97
(Edited by Formath at 6:56 pm on Mar. 25, 2007)March 25, 2007 at 19:40 #62802FactormanParticipant
- Total Posts 391
Have read that book and the staking plan is of interest,<br>it does rely on a cluster of winners coming together but has the potential to get back any losses over a period of time from moderate results.<br>So its a plan that can retrieve losses without resorting to progressive staking.<br>Shall watch with interest.
Good LuckMarch 26, 2007 at 11:12 #62804
Str 2.30 Spirit Of New York (15/8 won) – stake 10pts = =18.75<br>Plm 4.50 Clearly In Motion (8/13 won) – stake 15pts = +9.23
Result = +27.98. Bank 101.95
(Edited by Formath at 5:16 pm on Mar. 26, 2007)March 27, 2007 at 11:29 #62805
Lin 2.10 The Slider – stake 20pts lost<br>Wol 3.00 Gower (1/5 won) – stake 15pts = +3<br>Sed 3.20 Ballyvoge – stake 20pts lost<br>Lin 4.10 Castano – stake 10pts lost<br>Sed 5.20 Escayola – stake 8pts lost
Result = +3 – 58 = -57. Bank 44.95
(Edited by Formath at 6:14 pm on Mar. 27, 2007)March 28, 2007 at 11:49 #62808
Sou 2.10 Mount Hermon (1/2 won) – stake 8pts = +4<br>Kem 2.20 Enlightenment – (8/11 lost) – stake 10pts lost<br>Tow 4.10 Seafield Bogie (7/4 won) – stake 10pts = +17.5
Result = +21.5 – 10 = +11.5. Bank 56.45
(Edited by Formath at 6:26 pm on Mar. 28, 2007)March 29, 2007 at 11:06 #62810
Tow 2.30 Manx Royal – stake 13pts won 5/4 = +16.25<br>Lin 3.50 Palamoun – stake 16pts won 4/9 = +7.11<br>Tow 5.00 Ballyaahbutt – stake 19 pts lost
Result = +23.36 – 19 = +4.36. Bank 60.81
(Edited by Formath at 6:06 pm on Mar. 29, 2007)March 30, 2007 at 11:20 #62812
Asc 2.20 Mendo (8/13 won) – stake 17pts = +10.46<br> Wol 3.10 Blue Sky Thinking (5/6 won) – stake 21pts = +17.5<br>Wol 4.55 Elyaadi (lost) – stake 25pts
Result = +27.96 – 25 = +2.96. Bank 63.77
(Edited by Formath at 5:50 pm on Mar. 30, 2007)March 31, 2007 at 12:22 #62814
Closed this thread for the time being. I am sure anyone interested can see how it worksApril 2, 2007 at 06:48 #62816carlisleMember
- Total Posts 772
I have found this thread thought provoking. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â It also reinforces the fact that the method ofÃƒâ€šÃ‚Â bet selection is paramount. Value is obviously the final arbiter. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Therefore "All that matters is the price" has to be placed within the context of the race in question.
The more I study racing I increasing believe that the trainer is the KEY figure. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Is he aiming at todays race?<br>(I am a generous soul)
If the answer is –> "Probably not" then any amount of form studying/system crunching will be fruitless.
I advocate developing some Trainer based systems.
(Edited by carlisle at 7:16 am on April 6, 2007)
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