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The new incarnation of the Ladbroke, this will be run on Sunday at Leopardstown if we’re still above water by then.
It’s one of my favourite races to play ante-post as there are a number of strong trends which work out well most years. Basically you need a young, lightly weighted unexposed horse and my shortlist this year is, in racecard order: Akarem, (unlikely traveller?) Princelet,(ditto) Shazand, Barker, Do the Trick, Bahrain Storm, Cosmo King and Silver Jaro.
Do the Trick looks plenty short enough to me on his bare form- too much is being made of how unlucky he was last time- I’d want to get him in the book at 6/1. Of the others I much prefer Barker, who is still available at 16/1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes but not for much longer.
The way he won at Fairyhouse has to be seen to be believed and a steep hike in the ratings still leaves him 10lbs well in on RPRs. The second horse that day Vaqueras won well at Naas yesterday.The race he won has been a stepping stone to this race in the past and he looks great value.Possible negatives would be his lack of course experience and his trainer’s feeling that he wouldn’t want very heavy ground. I’d be interested in the 14/1 about Shazand if he’s confirmed a runner.If Barker has anything in hand, weight-wise, on Shazand then I’d fancy him to fare the betterof the pair, but I’m looking closely at Notable D’estruval, Cosmo King and Roman Villa.
The latter picks itself following a series of good efforts this season, and even at 7/1 rates a fairly useful safety net. Cosmo King looks a little short at 16/1 with Ladbrokes, but he was given a hell of a task against Catch Me after 21 months off and should be all the sharper for the outing.
Notable D’estruval is the one I’m most interested in at around 20/1. He won a fair hurdle before going chasing, and improved upon that form when beating subsequent winner Notra Pere at Fairyhouse. He was travelling well when coming to grief in a Grade 2 event last time and the reversion to hurdles is interesting. If he gets in, he’s worth chancing.
I’m not a slavish follower of trends by any means but one of the more consistent ones in this race is that no horse has won after more than 9 previous hurdle starts since 1995. The trend makes sense, as the more starts a horse has, the more likely it is that the handicapper is getting a handle on it- RV has had 13 hurdle starts. As no. 57 in the list with a safety limit of 30, it looks a bit doubtful that Notable d’Estruval will make the cut (I was thinking Silver Jaro was about evens) but he’d also be the first horse to return from chasing to win a race you need a lot of speed for on Lep’s inside track.
Is Princelet an unlikely traveller?
In the past, this has been a race Henderson has been prepared to have a dash at when he thinks he’s got a shout, and I figure Princelet to have a decent chance, dropped back to 2m on soft ground.
Nicky Henderson will probably have poured a few Cointreau’s into Jessica Harrington over Christmas, to get her to run one of hers under top-weight too.
The diabolical old fox.
.Is Princelet an unlikely traveller?
In the past, this has been a race Henderson has been prepared to have a dash at when he thinks he’s got a shout, and I figure Princelet to have a decent chance, dropped back to 2m on soft ground.
Nicky Henderson will probably have poured a few Cointreau’s into Jessica Harrington over Christmas, to get her to run one of hers under top-weight too.
The diabolical old fox.
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Good man grassy!
LMAO @ GH!!!
There’s a visual picture that will live with me to the grave.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
The efforts you so colourfully describe would have been superfluous – Willie Mullins runs Alexander Taipan, so the weights won’t go up. I actually have no idea if NH’s horse is travelling- he was a bit weak on Betfair a few days ago, but there’s not much looking to lay him tonight.
I don’t think the ground will be any worse than soft and quite possibly better. The race is to be run on the inside track where the ground was genuinely good at Xmas. While there is ain forecast for much of the week Leopardstown often escapes the worst of it.
I don’t think the ground will be any worse than soft and quite possibly better. The race is to be run on the inside track where the ground was genuinely good at Xmas and though there is rain forecast for much of the week Leopardstown often escapes the worst of it.
Bahrain Storm and Roman Villa for me.
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Barker for me, too.
Though you’d normally look for one with form in better races than his, it’s difficult to ignore how he completely outclassed a decent field, and, more to the point, it appears to have all been part of the grand plan to win so easily to enable him to get into this off a decent racing weight.
Wouldn’t mind anything but heavy ground, stays 2.5m well, yet showed enough speed to pick up the leaders in a modestly run 2m lto and, crucially for this race, probably still has quite a few lbs hidden from the handicapper.
12/1 at the moment,which still looks quite a lot for your money, and almost certain to be shorter on the day.Just heard that Timmy Murphy rides Barker and that their only worry is if it gets really heavy- what’s the opposite of a rain dance?
Whatever it is it’s not working- we’ve had torrential rain here and there’s now a doubt about the fixture going ahead- the chase course is unraceable at present and they’re dividing one of the handicap hurdles in case they need to run a hurdle only card. Tomorrow should be dry but a lot more rain is forecast on Saturday evening- I think you can take it that the going will be fairly testing.
At least it’s on, but the ground will be desperate as it’s still tipping it down this morning. I’m hoping conditions don’t turn this into a lottery but form has worked out ok in previous soft ground renewals.
Of the short list, Shazand, Barker, Do the Trick and Silver Jaro have made the gig. My main bet is on Barker, despite fears that this ground may not be ideal. I’ve also backed Shazand and had a saver on Silver Jaro at 20/1. If I was to pick an outsider who fits the trends it would be Boulavogue, who looks fairly priced at 40/1 on Betfair.
Elsewhere on the card I like Sea Diva to slog it out to win the Leopardstown Chase and urge caution about the front 2 in the 1.20, where we could see a minor upset.
Good luck to all brave enough to play today!Haven’t looked at the race, but I’d be loathe to back anything that will be held up. 27 runners around Leopardstown is bad enough at the best of times but I don’t think they ever go as quick as you’d expect in this race and that’s even less likely in a race run in conditions like todays. Perhaps someone could tell me which horse is a stone ahead of it’s mark and will sit in the first 10!
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