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This is one of my favourite races as it is a very strong trends contest- you need a low weighted unexposed horse to win it. Unfortunately the bookies seem very slow to price it up this year with only Cashman’s poking their heads up so far. Amongst their prices 10-1 Robin Du Bois is excellent value: I believe he’ll be the chosen of Tony Martin’s and that a fast run 2m is perfect. He was targeted at the wrong race at Cheltenham last year when he was always likely to struggle to stay the 3 miles of the Pertemps Final. His reappearance win showed him to be in good heart and he’s the first one to tuck into the ante-post portfolio….
Hi Carvills, I’m making a quick reappearance from the Dark Side. When is the Pierse Hurdle? Is there also a valuable chase?
edit: just found it on Betfair , next Sunday. Just the 65 entries.
I’ve been quite taken with On The Way Out, he looks to be a horse that’s going the right way. The form of his maiden is working out very well with Quiscover Fontaine winning a decent race at Limerick over Christmas and Judge Roy Bean just edged out of it in another above average maiden at Leopardstown.
He’s not gone unnoticed by the handicapper but he’ll have a nice racing weight if Newmill runs. It’s not a race I’d be getting heavily involved in, there’s usually plenty of in-running carnage and hard luck stories but On The Way Out will do for me at 12s.
The Pierce is always such a good race, with last year’s third winning the County at Cheltenham. I see the decent mare Tramp Stamp has been entered who was not disgraced on two occasions by Hurricane Fly. Also, I think Willie Mullins horse Imperial Hills will be tough to beat having been quite impressive on Lexus day in a good handicap hurdle.
JohnJ
Imperial Hills was the first on my shortlist JJ, but after a 13lbs rise I can’t get excited about the current 6/1. I doubt very much if Newmill will run and the weights are surely in for a rise- 5 day decs tomorrow, Robin Du Bois now 6/1 with Cashmans
There is indeed a decent chase Gerald, the historic Leopardstown Chase, also a good trends race!As an aside ….my Dad used to have a system for this race in its previous incarnation…"back the lowest price Irish horse, you have never heard of".
It was remarkably successful (although the second element adds a high portion of subjectivity) as before the days of ATR and coverage of Irish racing in the press the Sweeps Hurdle and the Irish National were the only two races we saw and the rest was a mystery.
I think his folksy approach promoted the chances of a well supported, local horse that was also unexposed. Not a radical idea for handicap hurdlers but very well put I always thought.
For those that don’t know(or remember), Carv gave us the winner last year in this race, Barker
I found it quite an informative market last year, barker was the first significant mover in the antepost marker, and one of the other decent market movers silver jaro went on to score at a decent price at cheltenham a few months later.
A bit annoying that the bookies still havent priced it up, think the market ran for about a fortnight beforehand last year.
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Having no idea what the ground may be at Leopardstown makes it a tricky call at this stage, but in the faint hope that it will be no worse than soft Sky Hall would be my choice with that proviso..
Although with still a fair way to go, this horse was travelling unbelievably well when coming down at the 3rd last in The Ladbroke, and – because of the quirks in the 2 handicapping systems – could get in this arguably lesser race at around the same 10-13 he was set to carry then.
Hard to believe he wouldn’t have featured in the finish of Sentry Duty’s race and, given a chance by the ground, equally hard to see him not amongst the principals in this.here’s my thruppence.
the race is usually won by something low enough in the weights, and with age on its side.
If Newmill (rated 142) doesn’t run, the rates will rise by at least ten lbs.
Kirbybroguelantern is second rated at 132, so a horse rated 118 could equate to a racing weight of 10st 12lbs.
Narrowing it down to horses which carry no more than that, and aged 6 or 7 (seven of the last ten winners), the tentative and lengthy short-list is:
(NOTE: weights if Kirbybroguelantern is top weight)
Bolodenka (10st 1lb)
Kronos (10-7)
Mullicagh Lass (10-2)
Penny’s Bill (10-4)
Pistol Flash (9-13)
Robin Du Bois (10-12)
Sanglote (10-11)
Sophocles (10-9)
Superior Ben (10-6)
Turtle Time Lucky (10-4)On grounds of price (6s or so) and possibly weight, I can’t have Robin Du Bois. He could be a machine, but if there is one rule I follow in race-betting, I don’t back horses priced up short on lofty reputations.
On all known form, can’t have Kronos, Mullicagh Lass, Penny’s Bill, Superior Ben. Sanglote I’m finding it difficult to weigh up. Sophocles has ability but has shown nothing in his last few runs, tailed off over Christmas. Turtle Time Lucky I expect to run well without winning.
Which leaves me with two.
PISTOL FLASH (best price 25/1)
BOLODENKA (best price 33/1)dis.
Robin Du Bois and Imperial Hills are the only two that appeal to me in any way really. Sophocles might have been interesting if he had showed anything in his recent runs, but was truly awful the last day in Leopardstown.
W.P Mullins will hardly let Ruby get on the Martin horse for this will he?I think Siege Of Ennis could go well in this. He’s not one to trust at a short price but he seems to like Leopardstown and ran well in the Fred Winter last year. He travels and jumps well and I can see him coming from off the pace to get involved. It will be interesting to see who rides him.
Colinf,
SoE was a horse I followed last year, he does travel and jump well, however when push comes to shove he never really seemd to find anything.
JohnJ.
Agreed, but in these fast-run handicaps you often need to travel and just keep going and at 25’s I’d be prepared to take a chance.
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Can anyone on here get a proper fix on the current going at Leopardstown?
Taken from todays irish independent…
"Their connections will no doubt be greatly encouraged by yesterday’s going update from Leopardstown general manager Tom Burke and indeed the Met Office’s forecast for the cold, dry spell to persist for a couple of days yet.
"The ground on the inside hurdle track being used on Sunday is yielding and it’s yielding to soft on the chase course. The weather is not expected to change until the weekend when they say it should become milder," Burke explained.
PS:I believe there is some rain on the way tho saturday nite/sunday day
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Great stuff; thanks for that CHB.
If the ground remains much the same, then Newmill is a possible; according to the trainer in yesterday’s RP.
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