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I’m Surprised nobodys mentioned Private Be (33/1) from the Hobbs yard, or am I a fool…
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I’ve mentioned him elsewhere, onthesteal (so, yes, you probably are a fool!
) and backed him earlier in the week. I think there could be money for him between now and the offReets opinion on Ashley Brook not staying.
The connections felt he was a future Gold Cup horse before
injury struck.Check RP quotes if you want confirmation.
You may of course be right but if not what will you do with the rest of your life?!?
[/u]- Total Posts 17716
Reets opinion on Ashley Brook not staying.
The connections felt he was a future Gold Cup horse before
injury struck.Then they’ve made his preparation hellishly complicated?
Wouldn’t have thought they would be to worried about Ash B getting the trip. They have run him a few times over it when he wasn’t right so they must think he needs it. Wouldn’t be suprised me to see him win but he has just come back from what was an awful period in his career and he may go straight back there after getting over the novelty of being back on a racecourse.
I think it’s a big misatke to think all horses have only one distance in them for their entire careers…may horses need that little bit further when they get older…….
I’d agree its less an exact science than some feel. I remember all the yearly comments about the likes of Ravens Pass and Attraction ‘not staying in a horsebox’ etc.
Some feel the opposite is sometimes true as well Fists – Henry Cecil believes that many flat horses strengthen from 3-5 to such an extent their optimum trip reduces.
I’d like to qualify i personally know VERY little about matters like this apart from what i’ve read.
My prices to beat (for soft ground) are:
Mister McGoldrick 33/1 74/1 betfair
Ashley Brook 40/1
Turko 50/1
Ouzbeck 10/1 15/1 betfair
Don’t Push It 25/1
Il Duce 133/1
Sky’s The Limit 200/1
Piraya 22/1
Three Mirrors 100/1
Yes Sir 33/1 49/1 betfair
Stan 16/1 29/1 betfair
Silverburn 5/1
Vodka Bleu 100/1
Barber Shop 13/2 8/1 corals
Maljimar 15/1
Imperial Commander 15/2
Fleet Street 50/1
Private Bee 33/1
Bible Lord 9/1 12/1 betfair
Patman Du Charmil 133/1Prices in bold are available at bigger (value bets).
Mark
Value Is EverythingAgree regarding Stan being a bit overpriced Mark. Good consistent handicapper with course and distance form. Glenfinn Captain has franked the form in his two runs this season and Coleman is well worth his 3lbs claim. Yard in good form as well.
Il Duce far too big – runner-up in this in the past and runs well fresh. Those who support Stan have to give ID a big shout.
Hi All,
I fancy Sky’s the Limit EW at 33/1 with Hills.
He ran a solid "warm up" race behind Noland and he will love the furious pace of the Paddy Power, will like the soft groud and enjoys the course – remember his storming victory in the Coral Cup? (1st 5 yr old winner of the race and he had top weight).
Zip
Il Duce far too big – runner-up in this in the past and runs well fresh. Those who support Stan have to give ID a big shout.
If it is genuinely soft ground I think that will be too soft for Il Duce who I backed last year at something like 79/1. He is also very inconsistent and not imo handicapped to win.
After todays racing have pushed out Imperial Commander a bit as Twister seems to be out of form these last few days. And increased Barber Shop.
Mark
Value Is EverythingYou fancy laying any of those prices at all Mark?
Those are 100% prices mate, without a bookies percentage added on. So definitly not. They are the prices I believe are "fair", as in I would neither back or lay them at those prices.
For Il Duce that 133/1 plus a 0.75% mark up would come to 66/1 bookies price. Interesting on betfair you can get 84/1 right now.
Mark
Value Is EverythingPardon my cynacism but have we got a Jim Bolger/New Approach scenario here regarding BARBERS SHOP.
Was not expected to run and consequently was available at 169/1 on Betfair. Now trading at around 8’s. Looks progressive and potentially well handicapped with the Henderson team flying.
Also a hold up horse. With Ashley Brook, Yes Sir, Imperial Commander and Patman Du Charmil in the race, it could very well be set up for something running off the pace.
Stan is a big price at 20’s too. Ran a nice reappearance race over an inadequate trip at Ascot. Coleman takes a valuable 3 pounds off, has course and distance form and ended last season seemingly improving.
They are my two against the field.
I agree entirely with the Bolger comparison.
Thing is the conceited press boys like Henderson because he makes
them feel special.Bolger is not interested in them.There are no headlines now about the betting public being put away are there?HypocritesPardon my cynacism but have we got a Jim Bolger/New Approach scenario here regarding BARBERS SHOP.
Was not expected to run and consequently was available at 169/1 on Betfair. Now trading at around 8’s. Looks progressive and potentially well handicapped with the Henderson team flying.
Also a hold up horse. With Ashley Brook, Yes Sir, Imperial Commander and Patman Du Charmil in the race, it could very well be set up for something running off the pace.
Stan is a big price at 20’s too. Ran a nice reappearance race over an inadequate trip at Ascot. Coleman takes a valuable 3 pounds off, has course and distance form and ended last season seemingly improving.
They are my two against the field.
I agree entirely with the Bolger comparison.
Thing is the conceited press boys like Henderson because he makes
them feel special.Bolger is not interested in them.There are no headlines now about the betting public being put away are there?HypocritesCome on lads, dammed if he says what the probable running plans are, dammed if he doesn’t. If you criticise trainers for saying this type of thing then pretty soon they won’t say anything.
At the time Henderson said Jack The Giant was going for the PP he thought the ground likely to be no worse than good-soft. So Barber Shop was likely to go for the Graduation Chase.
Then it became evident it would be soft going, so plans were changed, simple as that. So what if punters got their fingers burnt! Buyer beware.
Henderson did not intentionally put punters away and neither did Bolger.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHello,
Following his last good run, the somewhat exposed YES SIR may well be on the premises coming over the last and 50/1 on Betfair is very attractive.
regards,
doyley
Pardon my cynacism but have we got a Jim Bolger/New Approach scenario here regarding BARBERS SHOP.
Was not expected to run and consequently was available at 169/1 on Betfair. Now trading at around 8’s. Looks progressive and potentially well handicapped with the Henderson team flying.
Also a hold up horse. With Ashley Brook, Yes Sir, Imperial Commander and Patman Du Charmil in the race, it could very well be set up for something running off the pace.
Stan is a big price at 20’s too. Ran a nice reappearance race over an inadequate trip at Ascot. Coleman takes a valuable 3 pounds off, has course and distance form and ended last season seemingly improving.
They are my two against the field.
I agree entirely with the Bolger comparison.
Thing is the conceited press boys like Henderson because he makes
them feel special.Bolger is not interested in them.There are no headlines now about the betting public being put away are there?HypocritesCome on lads, dammed if he says what the probable running plans are, dammed if he doesn’t. If you criticise trainers for saying this type of thing then pretty soon they won’t say anything.
At the time Henderson said Jack The Giant was going for the PP he thought the ground likely to be no worse than good-soft. So Barber Shop was likely to go for the Graduation Chase.
Then it became evident it would be soft going, so plans were changed, simple as that. So what if punters got their fingers burnt! Buyer beware.
Henderson did not intentionally put punters away and neither did Bolger.
Mark
Absolutely Mark.Neither trainer intentionally put anyone away.The point I was making is that the majority of the press are too full of their own self importance.They publicly castigated Bolger yet they say nothing about Henderson for doing the same thing.It would appear that with the majority of the press it is one rule for their mates etc.
Got to agree what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Can’t say I have seen much of Bolger but as far as Nicky Henderson is concerned he’s a straight as they come. You have to consider the owner also has a say in what the trainer tells the public.
Thought it was shocking the way Nicky Henderson was treated by Frank Berry and co last season with Binocular, who would have won the Triumph doing handstand. He was desperate to run him but I presume the money was already on Franchoek and as long as he was going there in one piece they wouldn’t allow Nicky to run Binocular. The will he, wont he drama that caused made Nicky loook like a fool.
He was second fav for the Triumph and like everyone else with an interest in the horse I wanted to know where he was going to run if anywhere. In the 48 hours leading up to the race not one word came out of the press boxes and no one other than JP and Frank Berry knew where the horse was running. Apparantly Nicky wasn’t told until the last minute he runs in the Supreme. When you get crap like that going on how can anyone point the finger at a trainer.
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