- This topic has 137 replies, 35 voices, and was last updated 16 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
By the end of this season i am expecting Silverburn to be rated in the high 150"s, So to see him running off a mark of 143 makes him my Paddy Power selection! 21/2m on soft ground around Cheltenham will suit him
perfectly! He strikes me as a slow learner, but one who has a progressive
profile and i doubt we have seen anywhere near the best of him yet! His form with Massinis Maguire and Tidal bay is good enough for me! I have backed him e/w at 9/2!You’re a braver man than me backing a 9/2 shot each-way in a race like the Paddy Power, especially one that finished as weakly as he did a few times last season.
The maximum field is 20 btw, unless it’s changed since last year.Think I’ll have a go on the franch import Piraya at 16-1, pipe seems as bullish as you like on teletext about him.
Think I’ll have a go on the franch import Piraya at 16-1, pipe seems as bullish as you like on teletext about him.
I second this. I’ll be backing purely on the back of the buzz that Pipe seems to be throwing out there for all to see regarding this one
I can’t see where they get a mark of 147 for him on some very ordinary looking form in France, or am I missing something?
I’ve watched a few of his races at Auteil- a nice all the way win last September then a purler of a fall in June where he may have been distracted by a horse falling in front of him. To me his form doesn’t look all that superior to Granit Jack’s who got 137 over here and possibly the UK assessor isn’t taking any chances with these imports now.
Can’t believe the amount of support that has come for Piraya today, surely there wouldnt be that many people backing him after a comment on teletext, and surely the stable wouldnt wait until after a comment on teletext to back him. Looks like the bookies are just taking no chances.
There is the chance that he is too high in the handicap, but at this stage of the season any confidence behind a horse in a race like this is encouraging IMO.
Also quite like Bible Lord at the weights, but have to think about 12-1.
I notice that Mark Grant has been declared on Bible Lord already. 12s just became a lot less appealing.
There is a stable tour video from pipe’s on the RP site where he is quite bullish and effectively confirms him as a runner. I’m so lucky looks more likely to be going to the novice chase.
Pipe says Piraya is working very nicely.
The max field is definitely 20 btw.
If the ground is soft Silverburn will be very very difficult to beat if Ruby can get him jumping. If the ground dries up and gets quicker however i’d be looking elsewhere. Silverburns form is fairly easy to assess I think. Some people say he is a monkey, Nicholls reckons he wasn’t finishing his races, both of which I think are wrong. I just think he is a better horse given plenty of cut. His Tolworth win was a slog. All of his wins have been on proper soft ground.
Silverburn has looked to run out once or dwice but then again so has Denman. Don’t think either deserve a squiggle yet though.
Do wonder whether Nicholls over estimates the horses ability because of his bro. Of course the operation might bring about marked improvement.
Mark
Value Is EverythingSilverburn doesn’t get 3m IMO – he has been (well) beaten all 3 times he has been tried at further than 2m 5f, incl at Kempton in last years Feltham. The trip and ground should suit him in the Paddy Power, although the bare face of his form (1 novice chase win from 4 runs – didn’t beat anything significant either) doesn’t entitle him to be 7/2 favourite for a handicap as competitive as the Paddy Power
It’s hard to see how a breathing operation is going to improve him given that his trainer has never stated (to my knowledge) that the horse has had breathing problems. Well that’s my completely 100% unqualified opinion anyway!
Interesting comments on bible lord, some not impressed with jockey booking but there seems to have been a lot of money for him over the last few days. Was well fancied at chelt in march but never got into the race and finished 3rd or 4th. The question I would ask is…will he get into the race? I think he is 25th on the list of 5 day acceptors with only 20 guaranteed a run.
Does anybody know what is likely to be the cut off or are any of those higher up the handicap unlikely to run?Highly likely Bible Lord will get into the race, but equally highly likely he will leave his supporters gutted that they backed him.
The horse is very difficult to win with, doesn’t jump well enough for a top handicap like this, and doesn’t really have a trip either. He is a much better proposition in small fields, giving weight to inferior animals imo, and though fancied by a few judges, I couldn’t have him under any circumstances.
He will assuredly win half the track now.
Think Jack the Giant has (had?) a blinding chance in this, must have the potential to improve a stone on 151.
Connections making noises to pull him out on accordance of soft ground, must admit i would ve been even more confident with better ground but 3rd in an Arkle on soft is not too shabby?
IMO Jack The Giant is the one horse in The Mackeson who could progress into a winning Grade 1/2 performer in open company.
But decent ground is an absolute imperative for him to be seen at his best.You can’t make any concessions when tyring to back the winner of such a hotly contested handicap as the Mackeson.
If he runs and the ground is good I think he has a very solid chance at a price that in my little world represents great value.Pulled up with a BBV come Sat afternoon!!
Silverburn doesn’t get 3m IMO – he has been (well) beaten all 3 times he has been tried at further than 2m 5f, incl at Kempton in last years Feltham. The trip and ground should suit him in the Paddy Power, although the bare face of his form (1 novice chase win from 4 runs – didn’t beat anything significant either) doesn’t entitle him to be 7/2 favourite for a handicap as competitive as the Paddy Power
It’s hard to see how a breathing operation is going to improve him given that his trainer has never stated (to my knowledge) that the horse has had breathing problems. Well that’s my completely 100% unqualified opinion anyway!I think that’s an oversimplification, albeit one I shared until he ran at Newbury last season. Over 2 1/2m he was cantering until the last then found very little against Hobbs Hill. After that I sacked him, thinking he was either ungenuine or had a physical problem.His hanging antics made the former slighlty more likely for me. Saturday will tell which it was, but my money won’t be on him staying on resolutely up the hill at 7/2.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.