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Summer National 2009

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  • #11895
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I’d also like this to be treated as the Official Glastonbury 2009 thread.

    This post is brought to you courtesy of Blossom Hill White Grenache, available from ASociated DAiries at 3 bottles for £10. Guess how many bottles I’ve drunk.

    Anyway, as I ran out I went to the local shop for a couple of bottles of Blossom Hill White Zinfandel as top up.

    Several years ago I met a mate that I hadn’t seen for a few months, and I asked him how he had lost weight. He said it was through drinking wine instead of beer, so this is my attempt.

    Starting weight 111.8 kg
    Target weight 70 kg.

    I was meaning to bring you a runner-by-runner synopsis this evening, but by a force of circumstance, I am unable to.

    Tomorrow is the first day I’ve had off work since Derby Day, and I only had that day off not because I had drunk too much, but that I had worked a 12 hour shift the previous day and consequently had started drinking later, and consequently had finished drinking later as well. Not enough sleep.

    Anyway, onto the Glastonbury Festival. I know he’s ugly, but did the lead singer of the Virgins have to come on stage, indoors, wearing a Parka with the hood up?

    I’m showing a bit of cultural ignorance here. I haven’t seen the film, but I know the scene about the speaker with a knob that can go up to 11 instead of 10. Couldn’t help noticing that the bass player had an instument with 5 strings. Is the top one just for a laugh? Also on the same theme, it was a pity that the female dancer with Spinal Tap had such a disappointingly small arse, given the size of the rest of her.

    I had a couple of other things to ask about Glastonbury, but in an effort to keep it short I’ll cut them out so that I can have a moan about work. A couple of weeks ago they introduced a system so that my group went out 1st on Monday, 5th on Tuesday, 4th on Wednesday etc. Before that, at 1.45 we all left to go out, but as my group was furthest from the door, we were always at the back. Anyway, for some reson, in the second week we were 5th on Monday, 4th on Tuesday etc, so that we were 1st on on Friday. Anyway, when the 5 minute warning bell went at 1.40 most of my group left to queue up to clock out at 1.45. The blueshirsts in the other groups seemed to get their heckles raised about this, as if we were acting better than the other groups. Anyway, I still had a bit of tidying up to do, so I didn’t try to leave until about 1.44, by which time the corridor was already full up with people from the other groups. I went to my Team Leader and said it was fcuknig ridiculous. I then went out by the normal route, and complained to one of the other blue shirst from another group that it was fcuking ridiculous. He seemed to object to this kind of language being used, so I tried to ignore it, and find the tail-end of my group, which is slightly dodgy as I don’t know who yhey all are. He proceded to follow me, and continue our discussion. He said he didn’t like being spoken to this way and said that he didn’t speak to me like this. I replied that he did, when at Christmas he tried to teach me how to tell the time (despite the fact I probably have an IQ in the high 140s, and am probably at least a decade older than him, though I don’t look it). He said that now he remembered that, and I was wroung that time as well, and if I was wrong a third time I wouldn’t be coming back. Anyway, I was already in the middle of a mental breakdown, and went to reception, to see if I could switch to night shifts, as it was the third time I had been in trouble with blueshirts in four weeks. I tried to say I couldn’t hack it anymore, and couldn’t cope with the pressure, but I was told there were no vacancies on the night shift. The really bad thing was that I cut out a pathetic figure in front of the hot Sarf Afrikaan HR babe that I had been trying to build up the courage to ask out..

    Anyway, you all know I’m going to end up selecting Bothar Na anyway.

    My whole life has been a waste.

    #236705
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Will try to add a serious note to Summer National thread when I’ve rewatched Kasabian for the umpteenth time; ypur life hasen’t been a waste, Gerald, but I do fear that you’re beginning to turn into Vicky Pollard. On the subject of Glastonbury I can’t decide if Neil Young was brilliant or embarrassing last night.Still fancy Acers Four ew tomorrow

    .

    #236744
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Seymour Weld

    Has run 8 times at the track. Second season chaser who front runs. There’s another big chase at Market Rasen in a few weeks, isn’t there? I particularly like this comment from 27Jun08, "jumped beautifully". Has won 4 times at Market Rasen.

    Bothar Na

    Was out from Nov to May, then came close 3rd to stablemate at Punchestown (Heavy). The horse has never run in December or January, but has only run twice on Gd to Fm as well. I’m hoping he’ll be aimed at next year’s National, but he needs to go up a couple of pounds in the meantime. As a fresh horse he is obviously a serious contender. Hasn’t won since Sept 06, but I’ll not let that bother me.

    King Barry

    Same ownership as Merigo. Running off same mark as when 2nd to Church Island in Veterans’ Race, close 3rd to Mister Apple’s, and 7th in the Scotttish National.
    This is the first time he has run on an undulating track since his debut in Nov05. Wiyh him needing to improve a bit, and unproven on the track, I’d have him at a bigger price than the top two in the weights.

    Rakalackey

    Third in this race last year (4m1f). Now 4 lbs higher after winning on seasonal return. Owner trained. I’ll put a £2 saver on at a big price.

    Scalloway

    First run in excess of 3 miles. Can’t be having him. How come he is trained by Carl Lewellyn? I thought he was now assistant trainer to NATD.

    Take The Stand

    13yo who won last time out. 8th in this last year. Might come 3rd or 4th.

    Tentative first prices
    8 Seymour Weld
    10 Bothar Na
    19 King Barry
    18 Rakalacky
    50 Scalloway
    33 Take The Stand

    Stopping for a bath.

    #236746
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    Whatever happened to Surface To Air?

    #236750
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    I ignore Timmy Murphy at my peril when he’s riding for the in-laws; they seem very careful about where they place their horses as well.

    #236754
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6217

    My three against the field are:

    Scalloway(48 on Betfair)
    Prestbury Knight(55)
    Victor Daly (65)

    The common theme with the three is that they all have to prove themselves over the distance, but given their form patterns and prices then I think it’s worth taking a chance.

    Sea Wall looks desperately underpriced on what he has done. Conditions suit, but he has something to find in this class.

    I’m slightly disappointed to see Take The Stand wheeled out again after his Hexham win. It would have been nice if that had been one last hurrah. While I’d have no problem with being proved wrong I can’t see it in this company.

    King Barry has struggled on long trips away from home. He’s got a much better record at his local courses. It’s slightly disappointing that he’s the only representative from the North’s Notes territory.

    Of those at the head of the market, Fourty Acers is as good as any, but application of the visor is never something to encourage me over fences.

    #236763
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Fire And Rain

    Young Un, ex-Ballydoyle. OR has gone up 2 stones since St Paddy’s Day.

    27Mar09 Ascot (22Gd ,RPR123)
    He used to break blood vessels but he has had one of those food supplements and now goes out in a field very day and has not looked back in the past couple of months.

    I think this horse might have done a bit too much recently, having run in the Ascot Stakes as well.

    Keenan’s Future

    An 8yo veteran of staying chases, having run 10 times in excess of 3 miles. I think there is a bit more to come from him, and I’ll give him a better than average chance.

    Prestbury Knight

    Will stay the trip, but ran disappointingly last time. Has had 3 runs since having 2008 off. I can’t decide whether a fast run race will expose him, or bring out the best in him. We need KenWestDerby to slip us the wink about this one.

    Victor Daly

    This is quite a competitive race, isn’t it? This is another horse that is being targetted at the summer staying chases. With half-a-dozen or so of them, it is difficult to decide which one will step up to the mark. I suppose the thing to do is to back whichever of them are at the bigger prices. First attempt at this trip.

    The King Of Angels

    Jonjo kept trying to run this horse over the winter, despite it wanting a sound surface. He is running into form, and is 3 lbs lower than when 2nd to Parsons Legacy at Cheltenham in October. Must have a big chance. I know the going is Good, but I need to find out whether it is the fast side of Good, or the easy side of Good.

    Fourty Acers

    A Pipe horse running in a visor for the first time, having run in cheekpieces last time out.
    Fourth in this race last year, off a 3lb higher mark. I’d have preferred a prep race, but as this is a Pipe horse, and it has won first time out before, we can ignore this.

    This race is becoming a bit hopeless – there are too many horses in the 10/1 – 16/1 range.

    Tentative odds
    20 Fire And Rain
    12 Keenan’s Future
    20 Prestbury Knight
    14 Victor Daly
    14 The King Of Angels
    13 Fourty Acers

    I think I’ll have to do a lot of tweaking to the prices after the final batch, because I think my book will end up closer to 110% than 100%.

    #236773
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Brotenstown

    Irish mare having her first run in a Chase beyond 22f. Likely to stay on the ground, though weakened in her only attempt at a 3m Hurdle race.

    Freeze The Flame

    Is now a non-runner? Was the only contender from the 3m4f H’cap Chase on 22 May at Stratford, which I’d have thought would be the natural stepping-stone to this race.

    Lukie Victor

    Ex-Irish, that I will assume won’t stay, or at least hasn’t been conditioned to run over this sort of trip. His other entry, at Perth on Thursday, is over 2m4f.

    Nudge And Nurdle

    Has come down in the weights in the past year. Might be coming into form, which makes him very dangerous. Likely to be where the KenWestDerby pennies are going.

    L’Aventure

    Off this lower rating has every chance of placing or even winning.

    Sea Wall

    The in-form horse, that has only just scraped into the race. Jumped to the right last time, which ought not to suit this course either.

    30? Brotenstown
    NR? Freeze The Flame
    50 Lukie Victor
    12 Nudge And Nurdle
    17 L’Aventure
    8.5? Sea Wall

    Now to find out the ground, and then make the book add up to 100%. I might be gone a while. . .

    #236786
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I think I’ll have to do a lot of tweaking to the prices after the final batch, because I think my book will end up closer to 110% than 100%.

    Gee, that was rather prescient of me. My book comes to 110% exactly. So, instead of doing lots of individual tweaking, I’ll just multiply all the decimal prices by 1.1

    Probability My decimal price Horse
    0.114 8.8 Seymour Weld
    0.091 11.0 Bothar Na
    0.048 20.9 King Barry
    0.051 19.8 Rakalackey
    0.018 55.0 Scalloway
    0.028 36.3 Take The Stand
    0.045 22.0 Fire And Rain
    0.076 13.2 Keenan’s Future
    0.045 22.0 Prestbury Knight
    0.065 15.4 Victor Daly
    0.065 15.4 The King Of Angels
    0.070 14.3 Fourty Acers
    0.030 33.0 Brotenstown
    0.018 55.0 Lukie Victor
    0.076 13.2 Nudge And Nurdle
    0.053 18.7 L’Aventure
    0.107 9.35 Sea Wall
    1.000

    Going is Good, Gd to Fm in places.

    #236792
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Its not fair – I can’t have a bet on either Bothar Na or Keenan’s Future, even though I fancy them. Maybe I should have made them shorter prices.

    Anyway, I’ve got the dirty deed out of the way:-

    £10 @ 23 Nudge And Nurdle
    £12.12 @ 27.87 Seymour Weld
    £10 @ 27 The King Of Angels
    £5 @ 50 Victor Daly
    [/color:2awgalcp]

    #236811
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I’ve had a philosophical discussion with myself, and we have decided that although it is broadly fiscally neutral, it makes sense from a cash-flow and morale point of view to have savers on Bothar Na and Keenan’s Future. I’m not sure who would have had the casting vote if we had disagreed

    £5 @ 9.4 Bothar Na
    £4 @ 13.5 Keenan’s Future[/color:6hn7nuss]

    #236828
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Gosh, Fire And Rain into 10, keenan’s Future into 7 point, Bothar Na out to 16 so I put a few more quid on.

    #236832
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Oh well, 2nd & 3rd. Rest of the day is Glastonbury with White Zinfandel (bursting with strawberry and watermelon aromas).

    #236838
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6217

    I dipped out totally and given the distance I’d say only Prestbury Knight had that as an excuse. Victor Daly was struggling with a mile to go, and has two ways of running, whereas Scalloway dropped out so quickly the odds are something was wrong physically or mentally. In retrospect the phrases ‘soon beaten’ and ‘weakened’ appear a little too often in his form. Ah hindsight, ’tis a marvellous thing!

    Sadly King Barry went seriously wrong. I hope he’s OK and his absence would further add to the problem of a dearth of decent chasers on my local circuit. Sea Wall went out like a light with three quarters of a mile left.

    Take The Stand ran an honourable race but as expected found this company beyond him in his advancing years.

    The winner Fire And Rain is a progressive type and may just go on to better things given decent ground. That’s four wins from six goes over fences and he seems to get better with distance. Emma Lavelle must be looking eagerly towards staying chases either side of the winter.

    The King Of Angels is a seven-year-old, more exposed than many, though should remain competitive at this level. Keenan’s Future looks an out and out stayer who needs at least this distance and a little cut in the ground.

    Rob

    #236842
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Im missd the race thankfully or would have lost a bundle on the 3rd.

    So I stuck25% of my Irish Derby winnings on the last fav. Whoo I have Pure Faith in :lol: I have been drinking a wee dram or two best Isish Derby I ever saw :P

    #236991
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6217

    Problems for three of those I mentioned it seems, comments courtesy of the BHA’s website:

    The Veterinary Officer reported that SEA WALL bled from the nose.

    Timmy Murphy, the rider of KING BARRY (FR) reported that the gelding pulled up lame.

    Sam Thomas, the rider of VICTOR DALY (IRE) reported that the gelding had a breathing problem.

    The reports certainly explain why Sea Wall and Victor Daly backpedalled so quickly.

    Rob

    #237018
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Thanks Rob; grateful for any more news of King Barry that you hear.

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