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so at 19lbs better off he should just nick it from Hedgehunter
Jeez … he should be second favourite!
And I’ve got him at 129-1. That’s got to be the overlay of the century.
:biggrin:
Steve
I think there’s every chance that, despite his big weight, Hedgehunter will simply outclass this National field. I usually like to try and find some sort of angle to take on the market leaders in a race like this, but I’m struggling to find anything even remotely credible.
I shall have a few quid on him.
Direct Access at a bigger price might have a semblance of a chance at the foot of the weights, but I might risk a tenner on Ferdy Murphy’s Haut De Gamme.
He’s looked a funny horse at times, never giving you any confidence as to his optimum trip, but he’s run extremely well on his two visits to Aintree and looks as likely as any to take a hand.
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 4:08 pm on April 7, 2006)
You could back ten and not get in the frame this year, but I am surprised that I am alone as regards Cornish Rebel.
Going like the winner in the GC, (before clouting one), stays every yard of the trip, and is versatile as regards the ground. There are much worse 25/1 shots.
Ebony Light is a hunch bet, pure and simple. Ginger’s last stand.:biggrin:
If I carry on reading this thread, I am going to get drawn into backing Hedgehunter. The whole scenario is starting to remind me of Rough Quest’s National victory in 96.
Only 2 will be carrying my money tomorrow. They are :<br>Garvivonnian<br>Haut De Gamme
With the larger of the stakes being on the latter.<br>Good luck to all who have a bet and hope the horses get back safely.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 9:52 am on April 7, 2006[br]I have no interest in list after list of horse names. Much more interested in the reasoning for selections incase somebdoy considers something I have failed to. Not sure why you think that is waffle.<br>
I’ve asked for just a list because there’s already two or three threads about the National where you’ve all given your views on what you fancy, and I’d just like to keep this one simple so it’s easy to see what everyone’s finally decided they want to go for. <br>I didn’t mean to criticise by calling it ‘waffle’. I suppose I mean ‘analysis’.
Fair Enough.
For what it’s worth I’ll suggest
Lord of Illusion<br>Hedgehunter<br>Clan Royal
Can’t say anything else particularly appeals as a winner. Regarding Cornish Rebel, can you really Tizzard having the ability to present him at the right time without the horse pulling himself up. Thed long run in will make it difficult for him to win. Wouldn’t be surprised if he placed but equally think he’s as a decent candidate to fail to complete.
You couldn’t just make a list could you? You had to waffle! ;) :biggrin:
(Edited by Burroughhill at 8:40 pm on April 7, 2006)
I promised i would tell you if i had a dream about the national. Well i’ve had one. I dreamt Silver Birch would win. Will the dream come true ? Unlikely if his recent efforts are anything to go by.
Anyway here is my national shortlist in order of preference.
Juveigneur<br>Sir OJ<br>Direct Access<br>Silver Birch ( only included because of the dream !) <br>
I want to make an observation about the last 2 nationals which I think has a bearing on this years.<br>2 years ago I had a strong fancy for Hedgehunter and half way round he was lobbing along at the head of the field, jumping for fun and I was pretty much counting my money, what happened next will be forever etched in my soul. All of a sudden what was looking like a leisurely stroll the the winning line suddenly developed into a 3 horse war when Hedgehunter was joined by Lord Atterbury and Clan Royal and the 3 of them proceeded to commit National suicide, as far as I could see, by getting involved in a 3 horse battle for the lead the likes of which I have never seen before in the National, and probably never would again. I would estimate that for a full 2 miles the three of them raced each other for the lead, and in doing so basically surrendered any chance of winning the race. As the battle went on and on it became obvious that the race was being set up for some stamina laden plodder to come through and pick off the exhausted threesome. And so it proved, Hedgehunter fell and Lord Atterbury faded badly, and Amberleigh House came through to pick off Clan Royal at the Elbow.<br>If my analysis was correct then this would mean that this was a freakish result caused by a being freakishly run. As far as I was concerned, in a normally run race, any of the suicidal 3 would have either won or gone very close. Anybody that remembers the pathetic sight of an exhausted Hedgehunter trying to jump the fence he fell at and only managing to land on top will be able to testify to how damaging the battle had been. So bearing all this in mind I considered Clan Royals effort in finishing second one of the finest performances in a National I have ever seen. I considered him a winner without a penalty and a banker for last years races.
The rest is history, Clan Royal is carried out and Hedgehunter is able to stamp his class in a ‘normal’ National. HH’s performance says to me that my analyses was correct, and again enhances my view of how good Clan Royals run that day really was.
If I am right then Clan Royal should win tomorrow, simple as that.
But am I right? Does anybody have any differing views which will stop me doing my dough again.
- Total Posts 17716
 Met Office forecast for the region tomorrow, which may make it a very different race:
Summary: Heavy showers and outbreaks of rain this evening and tonight.
This Evening and Tonight <br>Heavy rain and showers will spread across the region this evening. Mainly dry later tonight, but risk of icy patches forming. Minimum temperature 1 deg C (34 deg F).
Saturday <br>Sunny intervals and scattered heavy showers. Feeling cold. Maximum temperature 9 deg C (48 deg F).
Less than 17 finishers might look a good bet by the morning?
Sticking with my bet of a year ago Hedgehunter only worry is has he recovered enough after the Gold Cup so layed some off. Clan Royal is another antepost voucher surley AP has a national in him but he fell off today after the horse blundered over those large obstacles. Was going really well last year when taken out and last run will set him up for this. At 22/1 Cornish Rebel  who was going really well in the Gold Cup until a bad blunder put his chance out the window. Full of stamina and classy sort, if he can jump these who knows. Last of the four Numbersixvalverde Tough stays well won Irish National at Fairyhouse should be respected. From the rest it would have to be Innox F Doumen will have his charge ready for this but AP rides Clan Royal.
Good luck whatever you back.
No real strong fancy in it to be honest i did like Sir Rembrant quite a bit but he’s not goin so i think i’ll leap for 1 of the real forgotten horses of the national this year Silver Birch . The horse has had his problems this season and the price reflects it but he’ll like the going has won over the course and shud stay the trip so alot more positives than negatives imo and if he doesnt win it he may fair best of the Nicholls super 6.
To add to my already enormous list, I’m throwing in Jack High too.
So, that’ll be 6 horses I’m going to back.
Steve
Quote: from stevedvg on 12:18 am on April 8, 2006[br]To add to my already enormous list, I’m throwing in Jack High too.
So, that’ll be 6 horses I’m going to back.
Steve
I wud love to see Jack High win as i used to have connections with the horse but he looks to be carrying enuff.
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