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I am musing this morning on the creeping homogenisation of UK racing.
Today’s Sprint Cup used to be run round a bend.
Ditto the following (off the top of my head): the Royal Lodge Stakes, the Fillies’ Mile, the May Hill Stakes, the Futurity, the Horris Hill Stakes, the Radley Stakes, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
There was variety.
Flat racing used to be conducted on anything from genuinely Hard to Heavy ground.
Nowadays Clerks (unless the big-race crowd-pulling favourite wants it on top – Haydock have done the right thing this week generally by not watering, but ironically in this instance for all the wrong reasons) have panic attacks if it veers to the Good to Firm side of an artificially-watered Good.
And draw biases were legion.
It was complicated in a way that favoured serious punters.
Cream rises to the top and when the puzzle is too tough for recreational punters – or even £500/£600 a week first show odds compilers – the serious punter can take advantage.
But nowadays it’s become complicated in a different way – a way that makes it all more random and kills the edge of the serious punter, turning him (or her) into Johnny (or Josephine) The Guesser.
It’s guess the real state of the ground, guess whether the draw bias has been watered out, it’s all about the lowest common denominator and reducing the serious punter to a guesser along with the rest.
Understandably sick of this, some serious punters are now calling for all tracks to become AW – maybe tapeta sprayed green to appease the aesthetic and mitigate the damage to the look of Britain’s racecourses – to eliminate this new blight of random guesswork.
I get why, but it would be a capitulation, the path of least resistance.
The same ground everywhere would kill a lot of edges for serious punters.
What we really need is a return to the glorious visible variety that used to be the hallmark of UK Flat racing.
From Hard (or at least “Firm” – it’s four letters, but it’s not a dirty word) at Bath to naturally Heavy at some venues after the weather – not watering – renders it thus.
As always I welcome feedback – positive, negative, or somewhere in the middle – on my latest rant!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Interesting post Ian.
I suppose AW was born in this country to keep racing going over the harsh winter months where the ground was frozen and unusable.
I don’t like ground being watered and think whatever will be will be, and in your title I see races as puzzles, which can get harder or easier to predict as going changes.
If it becomes too sterile gone are the days of the odd outsider popping up, and there goes the ‘beauty’ of the game where there is a certain amount of unpredictability.
I just hope that those that keep tampering with the sport, want to change festivals and the days that are run, always looking to change ‘something’ to justify their being just leave things as they be.
They will eventually be responsible for the demise of the sport.
Lots of good points. I do not really bet as much as I did, partly because I am finding it more difficult to identify value. Everything is about the price I think it should be, or shorter.
A rare example which was a bigger price than I would have had it was Flotus at Ripon on Monday. I thought the early 9/1 was far too big, was pleased to beat the SP by three points and even happier when she bolted up. But I am finding that sort of thing harder to spot.
I suppose I should think about laying a few favourites which I think are too short – but my brain does not really work that way.
Looking at today’s racing, I am struggling to find three horses for the tipping competition. No inspiration at all – and this used to be one of my favourite Saturdays of the year!
Though I used to work in the betting industry and even helped out one of my Dad’s friends with his racecourse pitch in my youth, I’m not wired that way either, CAS.
It’s very rare that my only view on a race is a certain horse can’t win it.
And if I lay one I will have horses running for me that I don’t give any chance to either.
I’d rather back the horse – or horses – I think CAN win.
And if I am wrong, I am wrong.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree, I just do not get any pleasure in getting a horse beaten. About the only horse I have laid this year was Chacun Pour Soi in the Champion Chase because I had put him up here as my lay of the festival and I genuinely thought he was too short. But I still prefer backing winners.
To broaden it out a bit, I wonder if racing will continue to have any appeal to small stakes punters? After spiralling admission costs and train fares and the extortionate cost of racecourse food and drink, it is an expensive day out now even before you have had a bet. It is not like “when I was a lad” and if you won £30 it paid for the day with money to spare!
I was thinking of going to Warwick in two weeks time with a free ticket from RTV – but the ridiculous train fare is making me think twice.
I’m the same on this too.
I considered going to Fontwell Park (50 miles from me, hour and a quarter drive) tomorrow, but £22 just to get in the Grandstand for a modest Sunday card?
It’s about a pound a runner!
Winning enough to pay for the day out isn’t the option for the small stakes punter the way it used to be, that’s for sure.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Do people still get a buzz from beating the enemy? THe lines are blurred with bookies no doubt using the exchanges extensively, but would people rather beat the bookies at 8’s, or beat a punter at 17/2? Is there a difference nowadays, or is value everything?
BUY THE SUN
Tbh, I never thought of bookies as “the enemy.”
Growing up some of my Dad’s friends were bookies, I worked for one myself from 18, when I won I was winning losing punters’ cash, not theirs.
The exchanges just brought this into even sharper focus.
It’s dog eat dog – and the other dogs are the other punters.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Anyone laying odds on favourites got off to a flyer today. Four in a row got beaten, in the opening races at Wexford, Haydock, Navan and Stratford. And you can throw in Hukum and Starman getting turned over as well.
Aye. If I had backed Hamish for the Ebor I would remain peeved at that bizarre decision to pull him out.
BUY THE SUN
I did back him! At least I got my money back, I suppose. Of course, I did not back him today.
“The more complicated the puzzle, the better it is for the serious punter”…
Depends what is meant by “complicated”. Sometimes a complicating factor makes it easier to identify value (a good bet). Sometimes what may look easy to the average punter is far from it…
Many punters believing the easy race to be “easy” to fathom the winner can dismiss outsiders and/or concentrate too hard on the favourites… Leading to an outsider/s being bigger price/s than their fair chance of winning.
Group races with an odds-on fav is often more complicated than first appears. eg No pace in the race other than the completely outclassed pacemaker and strong tail wind favouring those ridden prominently (both factors in me backing Arabian Queen @ 179/1 against the odds-on Golden Horn in the 2015 International at York).
But yes – regarding any individual race – when things get “complicated” (when there are more factors than the usual form questions) it does favour the experienced, serious punter. Just as long as it doesn’t become too complicated – Clerks either over-watering or (as already mentioned) clerks sometimes taking the natural going advantage out by uneven watering and yet other times apparently not doing so.
Then again… “Complicated” races are complicated for the serious punter too. Often possible to work out the value in four relatively easy races quicker than to work out just one complicated race. So although the value may not be so great in easier races, the lesser time taken to work them out often more than makes up for it. However, tbh I personally find the size of value (ie amount above my idea of its fair odds) is generally less in bigger fields.
Value Is Everything
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