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Mr E
I have followed Matron’s and your threads from 2001. In one of them you stated you were not interested in value but as far as you were concerned the key was profit, what made you change your view, as you now go on about value.Perhaps you can explain the difference between the two.Hi Thel, thanks for popping in….. yes, there’s a hell of a difference between value and just making a profit….. why and when did I change my mind????….. it was probably about 4 years ago after I met a couple of real pro’s (I still get a lot of advice from them even now), I always used to think that a certain amount of profit per day would make me a tidy income, so i targeted myself to make 0.5pt per day thinking that would give me 15pts per month, and so it proved…. I made a nice little profit for many years….. but these guys pointed out that I was probably wagering around 300pts per month to get this 15pts profit…. anyone that has done bonus hunting will know what I’m on about when I say that you can wager a thousand to earn £50…. it was all risk free or at least low risk, but I was pointed in a different direction at that point and I’ll talk about that on the other staking thread sometime…..
MrE
It looks to be just the one today according to the D. Mail forecast: –
2.45 Beverley CHOCOLATE CARAMEL . . .class 6 Claimer
2/1 should be available via the offices if not it just crests the minimum on the exhanges early doors. First price on the boards is 9/4 . . .
2nd LOST
A little cross over reference here with
MrE
‘s latest posting in HOW TO STAKE but a quick look at the early Betfair market shows Chocolate Caramel at 1.91 (10/11) to place 1st/2nd). Is this a MERDS proposition?
Billy's Outback Shack
Billion and Mr E been following these threads for a while some very nice bits of info.
Mr E i read your other thread about staking and the like makes a lot of sense
Keep up the good work lads
Billion…. yes, anything like that would be ideal for Merd’s, although I would have preferred 3 places….
Manchester…. thanks for that…. there’s an awful lot to talk about when it comes to staking and a lot of guys can find it boring, but I will post my thoughts and ideas for as long as you guys are interested, there’s a lot of ground to cover…..
MrE
This may have nothing to do with this thread tbh, but do we not find Backdata as important as staking ???
I would say it is more important tbh, i run systems myself and i have a years worth of back results before i even part with a brass penny
What are your thoughts on this guys ???
Sorry to hijack the thread
Hello
manchester
,
I always find it most fascinating how we all differ with our ideas and methods of constructing systems and betting plans.
I have full admiration for the folk like yourself who have an idea and prepared to wait a full year before embarking on it.
There will be many theories as how it should be done, none will be 100% right or wrong but may I profer an example which does not agree with you.
I site the example of Maria on the Massey forum (quite a well known young lady within forum circles) and I am sure she would agree a 12 month trial is the correct process. However a couple of season ago (or thereabouts) she started a system idea 4*5* 40+ around Adriam Massey’s ratings. It did well for a couple of years, in fact very well, so well she even expanded the idea with 2 further systems. The last time I looked in around a couple of months ago it was having a dreadful time of it.
WHY? I ask and to be honest I have not a clue, it may even have turned the corner of late but my point is run a trial for 12 months, run it for 24 months, all looks well and then what happens, it goes tits up and for no explainable reason.
You are not wrong I am sure and I do think with your trial you soon get a feeling of if it has legs or not.
I have given a start to far too many systems which for one reason or another becomes discarded but I do have a theory when a system that has been running well and then hits the buffers it more often than not is due to one or more of these reasons.
1…. RAIN which changes the going.
2….The cross over between Flat to NH or the other way round.
Then I instead of reducing stakes it gets put aside and forgot.
Well, that is my theory and is as good as anyones but again I must say I admire your patience and wish I had some measure of it.
Billy's Outback Shack
Now here is an interesting point raised by
MrE
Is it (4) 5 6 7 runners pays 2 places?
8 to 15 runners pays 3 places
16+ pays 4 places.
So the best chances for 3 place payout is an 8 runner race and 4 or 5 runner race for a 2 place payout.
BUT, but are the prices not smaller where there are fewer runners?
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednesday June 23
NO SELETION TODAY according to The Mail’s betting forecast.
Billy's Outback Shack
Thanks for the reply Billion some good points there and i know the system Maria started on the Massey forum, yes very strange.
This is how important backdata is imo, i have been constructing some of my own ratings using RP data and getting it into excel,a little system i made from the rates was backing the top two, i started this at mid May point in the first ten days they 110 points to level stakes i thought wow i am on to something as you do
But hold a minute here it aint that easy is it ???? is it bloody hellers like, i then did a backtest on a years worth of data in my data base and low and behold an overall loss of 150 points to BFSP
So backdata is very important, i made a nice system the other week nice and steady around three selections a day so i back tested this i thought 6 months lets see how it goes and low and behold 354 bets 51 points profit.
This system has continued in the same vain ticking along day by day.
Just a thought gents add my stuff to the coldran who know we may nail jelly to the wall
Manchester
BUT, but are the prices not smaller where there are fewer runners?
Hi Billion
The odds of picking 1 number from 8 is 7/1 while picking 1 from 4 is 3/1.
With horse racing the price is more to do with the public and bookmakers perception of individual chances.
You can get a 4/1 favourite in a 6 runner handicap and an 8/13 favourite in a 20 runner novice hurdle.
‘morning guys,
I know what you are saying
Dolus
but my point was raised when
MrE
says about the race that he preferred 3 places and I was tring to say do the bookies balance things uo if 3 from eight or 2 from five
’tis a little early but that is as good as I can explain.
Reading back in the archives of the system board (as I have been known to)
manchester
there has been much talk of RSB (Race System Builder – I think) and if still available must be a wonderful tool, do you know it?
Billy's Outback Shack
Yes Billion i have seen this around but never used it.
I am luck enough to have had some one program a data base in excel which has every stat and results i need.
Still does not find the holy grail but helps to find the odd winner and an odd lay
Hi
manchester
,
Perhaps if any current member has knowledge of RSB they can give their opinion please.
Billy's Outback Shack
Haven’t tried RSB as it doesn’t seem to run under Linux but horseracebasedotcom looks like a comprehensive alternative.
Hi
manchester
,
Perhaps if any current member has knowledge of RSB they can give their opinion please.
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Yes tried horacebase and the systems that are on there, they must be quite a few on there now
A lot of them are very much back fitted imo
But it is a very good tool to use and you can donate so no monthly subscriptions.
Think i will stick with my RP data in my excel data base, i am off to Spain for a few days from Friday when i return i will post up some of my systems selections for us all to have a laugh at
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