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Well boys, it looks like The Majestic is still on fire, even after 7 years…… that’s just to good to be a mere coincidence, I mean, the first airing of this system in 7 years and I can see 2 winners from 3 selections…. and Billions second string from the mail popped in a 5/1 winner also….. very nice….. good for you too Billion, it was a cracking idea nipping back into the archives to unleash this little gem…..
MrE
Thought I’d better say thanks to Daz too…. failure to do so would put me in his bad books…. Daz would put me on report and I would have to answer to Matron, I don’t mind really because I’ve managed to get round the old sod with a bit of bribery….. with that knowledge, I can usually illicit a few favours from the leader of the opposition (as Matron likes to be called)….. I can’t impart too much information without letting the cat out of the bag, but Matron used to be referred to as "The Pope" in his early days…… I’m not totally clear about this, but it appears to have something to do with kissing the Pope’s ring…… not sure I understand that, but there you go….. keep it to yourself guys, it’s ammunition for the future…..
MrE
Blimey, MrE – don’t tell them too much!
Otherwise, I might just have to mention the incident in the back of the "Popemobile" with the bishop.
Regards- Matron
Four possibles today at day 2 of R. Ascot
2.30
SHAKESPEAREAN
9/2 early price
LOST
3.05 STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI
WON
3.50 BYWORD
WON
5.00 MEOW
2nd
Strawberry – Byword – Meow, non have won at today’s race level, which although not a requirement of Darrell’s original concept is something I am experimenting with before striking any bets anywhere and therefore must remain constant.
I am taking a leap of faith with Shakespearean as I am not sure of previous win status but at 9/2 the pound is down each way.
Correction – it has won Gp3 last August at Sandown but the Goffs Million Mile (Curragh) does not show race status,
does anyone know?
I must conclude my favoured filter is RUBBISH when applied to the great little systemBilly's Outback Shack
Yeah, very good Billion….. it’s a great feeling to see that something long forgotten, is still going well after all these years….. just goes to show that the reason for it going tits up 7 years ago was probably only a temporary blip….. just shows you that a method should not be kicked out because of one losing month because the following 11 months could all be profitable….. I think that you’ll get some fairly good mileage outa this…..
MrE
Still using the dreaded depression daily MAIL forecast and not as originally decided RACING POST.
One today at R. Ascot in 2.30 DINKUM DIAMOND
LOST
Although the favourites do not qualify on price 7.30 Beverley is a CONDITIONS STAKES and 3.20 Ripon is a CLAIMING STAKES . . . are these races NON HANDICAP’s?Billy's Outback Shack
Billion….. I can remember Daz saying that it doesn’t matter which paper you use as long as you stick to the same paper and don’t chop and change, so the Daily Mail should be fine…. the only reason that we use the Racing Post is cos it’s free online…..
Those two races that you mentioned (7.30 Beverley and 3.20 Ripon) are both NON h/caps…..
MrE
Thanks again for another definitive answer
MrE
.
Just in case any member is interested the unsupported nomination were: –
Ripon 3.20 (Class 5 Claiming Stakes)
ABBONDANZA 6/4 very early doors.WON
Beverley 7.30 (Class 3 Conditions Stakes)
HAMISH McGONAGALL was 13/8 very early on.LOST
Perhaps
Darrell
will explain why 2/1 minimum.
Although I have recently erred towards bigger prices which after all is claimed to be the only profitable way to bet there are races as per. Ripon 3.20 which only have 7 decl. runners and therefore wonder if any minimum set price could be missing a trick.
Billy's Outback Shack
Billion…. I don’t know why Daz used the 2/1 filter, but in my opinion he is correct to do so….. many moons ago, I was told by a professional bettor, to put all my stakes on any bet at under 2/1 in a tin rather than use the money to bet…. then I was to keep a record of my winnings/losses as if I was actually betting them….. after 6 months, the money in the tin was £1600, the money at the paper trade of the under 2/1 was + £580…. so I made MORE money by not betting them…. in it’s defense, there was a lot of odds on bets, but the lesson learned has always remained with me….. don’t bet unless you get "value"….
There are ways and methods of "forcing" value, one of which is the long standing MERD’s (also circa 2003)…. MERD’s = MrE’s Rolling Doubles….. you might see variations of this on the internet and touted by others as a staking plan, but it was first printed on TRF by yours truly, so you can stuff all the other crap that you hear, this is horses mouth stuff….. for short prices, MERD’s is the only way to go….. it tells you to "roll" any winnings forward into a double or a treble until you reach 3.00 (2/1)…… and the message remains the same as ever, you are wasting your time and money if you don’t recognise the value of "value"…..
I’ve not opened my gob a lot on hear since those early day of yesteryear, but the lessons always remain the same, that’s why I’m still betting (and winning after 50 years)…. OK, I don’t frequent this forum as often as I used to, but I’m trying, I have returned after many years away, but the message is still the same…. hard work, it’s NEVER easy, and the correct staking is of the essence….. if your not "alive" to the staking, forget the betting because you’ll lose long term…… the odds of 2/1 are a necessity…. if you think about it, you will need 2/1 to break even if you have a 33% strike rate, and I don’t know of anybody (tipster or private) that can claim a 33% strike rate with minimum odds of 2/1…. and that’s only a break even situation…. you really need to make money not break even….. so it stands to reason that you only have 2 ways to go…. increase your strike rate (almost impossible), or higher prices….. that’s why you have to obtain "value", and value usually (not always) starts at above 2/1…..
I hope that puts my thoughts into the picture and might also show why I consider that Daz has it right…..
MrE
Comprehensive as always
MrE
and as ever a sound read.
Well just cresting the 2/1 with early prices there are two to consider today: –
R Ascot 4.25 RAINBOW PEAK 9/4
Redcar 4.35 GUGA 5/2
WON 15/8
…..and now the journey back to the Essex badlands.
Billy's Outback Shack
……just before I do the off to the badlands I will pick your brains
again
if I may
MrE
with regard to staking which I realise you to hold the faith to successful betting.
I understand you bet along 20/80 margins which is fine with larger stakes but for the smaller minded as myself have to be content with each way, again this is fine if it suits the indivuduals style.
The when and when not too (as per 2/1+ win stakes).
I have resisted 4/1 paying 3 places at 1/5th but if the place payment was 1/4 and just brings back original stakes is still not worthwhile and so do they both become win only placements.
I try (I say again TRY ……the flesh is sometimes weak) to play above the fraction: –
If 1/5 the odds should be 6/1
If 1/4 the odds should be 5/1
…..and not play win only. Right or wrong your thoughts and instruction will be taken very much to heart.
Billy's Outback Shack
……just before I do the off to the badlands I will pick your brains
again
if I may
MrE
with regard to staking which I realise you to hold the faith to successful betting.
I understand you bet along 20/80 margins which is fine with larger stakes but for the smaller minded as myself have to be content with each way, again this is fine if it suits the indivuduals style.
The when and when not too (as per 2/1+ win stakes).
I have resisted 4/1 paying 3 places at 1/5th but if the place payment was 1/4 and just brings back original stakes is still not worthwhile and so do they both become win only placements.
I try (I say again TRY ……the flesh is sometimes weak) to play above the fraction: –
If 1/5 the odds should be 6/1
If 1/4 the odds should be 5/1
…..and not play win only. Right or wrong your thoughts and instruction will be taken very much to heart.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
As it’s between races at RA, I have a few minutes to spare (and I can’t pick a winner to save my life today.)
I gave up on EW betting as a waste of time long ago.
I have heard of EW betting described as a bet for the undecided or a bet for when you have no confidence in your selection.
From a practical point:-
1) For a start you have to decide whether to double the stake or half the stake to cover the extra bet.
2) If we assume 1/4 the odds at 20/1 and £1 EW and the horse is placed the return is £6. Though 1/4 the odds is 5/1, £2 of the £6 was your stake then the odds you have received for your outlay are 4/2 or 2/1, a bit different to the 20/1 for the win. Remember this to a fairly large price of 20/1.
If the horse wins the return will be £27. The 20/1 odds have tumbled to 25/2 (12.5/1). This is a lot less than the £42 if you had the stake on to win. You would still get back £21 for half the outlay if just doing the win part of the bet.
3) Another way of looking at it is that in an 8 runner race where all the runners were equally matched then the odds to win of each one would be 7/1. The odds to place (3 places) would be 5/3 (1.66/1) but the bookie would only give you 1/5th the odds 7/5 (1.4/1).
It might be instructive to take a leaf from Mr-E’s last post and put half the stake on to win and the other half in a tin.
Hi Bill…. I’m a bit late in replying because of the footy….
Dolus is spot on…. if you play a straight E/W bet, you throw all value out of the window….. you have to force yourself to "see" and understand that "value" is the King…. all that the equal place part of the bet become is a "saver" in case your selection finishes second or third and there is no value in a "saver"…..
Now, this does not mean that you ignore the chance of your selection getting placed, but you change the stakes to make that place bet profitable, both win and place should be able to reach "standalone" status, each must be profitable in it’s own right…. all this requires is to treat the win and places bets as separate wagers, place enough on the place part of the bet to cover your lost win stake AND a 1pt profit…. or you can do as I do and just stake my place bets as a separate entity and is nothing to do with my win bets…..
When discussing staking, it gets difficult because each persons finances are different, so is the amount of time to be able to spend at the P/C….. I got so wazzed off with all the hours spent on here studying the horses, that 2 years ago I made a serious decision to change my ways and I haven’t looked back….. but the point is that I don’t want to hog this thread just to talk about what I’m doing, so we’ll leave all that until a later date, but honestly Bill, you need to forget the idea of same stake E/W bets…. you need to bet Win only, Place Only, or at least dutch the two so that you get a matching return (or something similar)…… I prefer my bets as Place Only because I feel very comfortable with it….. my way of betting doesn’t suit many people because the majority of my bets are odds on, but it makes no difference if you just roll your stakes on…. and on top of that, I get no long losing runs and that’s important….. at this present moment I am on a winning run of 23 and it takes about 3 bets to make 2/1, so you don’t have to be a mathematician to work out that those results boil down to 20 x 2/1 bets winning on the bounce….. that’s more than I could have made just betting the damn things to win, I’d have got stuffed…. it’s all down to getting "value" and staking correctly and value must come top of the list…..
That’s a long winded reply as to why not to just do level staked E/W betting…. I hope it aint bored you….
MrE
I just knew I shoulda kept my big mouth shut….. my selection today was to finish in the first 3 in a 6 horse race….. it finished unplaced…… annoying aint it, stupid game this racing is….
Whoooppppeeee…… no it didn’t, it was a n/runner and was withdrawn and not under starters orders…. hahaha…. record still intact…..
MrE
Hi there
Dolus
, nice to hear from you again, it feels like quite a long time since we communicated.
This must be a posting of several parts, first of all it looks as if my previous post was in duplicate, as it was I was having WiFi problems and so am sorry in my haste (or whatever) I posted twice.
Secondly, on leaving the lovely Norfolk for the Essex Badlands I guess I was not in the most cordial of moods and with Mrs. B. hastening me along I backed and posted with much serendipity RAINBOW PEAK which was NOT racing in a NON HANDICAP event.
Sometimes the Gods are just looking after you and this was one of those days.
Apologies out of the way and now for the math lesson. I think I will have to sit quietly and re-read the posting and with paper and pencil work out the technicalities. Never one who shone in the school maths lessons but matters have since got a lot worse with age and so digesting it may take a little while.
I do understand your point
Dolus
in so much that the each way bet is for the undecided/unsure, also I understand the bookies love e/w bets and furthermore statistics show more money is made from win betting.
That has covered my backside should anyone from Ward 7 read this and here comes the BUT …….none of the above takes in or relates to the human emotion and I did say the flesh is weak (well mine anyway).
Please endulge me for a little while longer, yesterday I placed 3 bets e/w, OUTLAND 4/1 (2nd 2/1), HAZELRIGG 4/1 (3rd 8/11) and DANCEINTOTHELIGHT 5/1 (3rd 5/1) each returned the precise stake bet, nothing gained and nothing lost. If bet as win only I would have lost each bet and ended up out of pocket.
Looking at this short term and not taking the longer view which with my betting can result in anything but I had every chance of a nice return if just one of them had won, that of course did not work out but I went to sleep with an unchanged bank and slept well without the stress of facing another long losing run.
I will come back once I have read your posting again
Dolus
but would be interested to hear from other members if I am ploughing a lone furrow here or if others feel much the same about losing.
Billy's Outback Shack
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