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Well only 5 ish days to go now to one of my favourite races of all time. This year’s renewal isn’t as good as last year’s but it still looks a decent G1 looking at the entries. The ground will probably be on the fast side which will suit a lot of the runners, although the weather coming into Cornwall at the moment looks full of rain…..! (So why are Ascot still watering? The forecast rain should keep the jar out and if it didn’t arrive they could water afterwards. Sometimes a deluge can come and Ascot can get pretty soft).
At the moment I think if the ground stays as it is Grandera would be in with a good chance of success. The French and German challenge is strong but both might want more cut. If Nayef is on song I think he could get a place over 1m4f which I think is his better trip. I can’t see High Pitched, Millenary or Golan winning although the latter goes well fresh. If the ground got even faster Zindabad will be very interesting and possibly a main danger from the front although if Godolphin run Narrative as a pacemaker that could ruin his chances. I don’t think they need a pacemaker as Sakhee can go well from the front anyway and they will be wanting Grandera to last the trip. Bach and Storming Home are yet to win a Group One and e-w bets are probably advised on them.
Interesting race and I hope all the main players stand their ground.
If Sakhee runs:
1)Sakhee<br>2)Grandera<br>3)Zindabad
If Sakhee doesn’t run
1)Grandera<br>2)Zindabad<br>3)Golan
(The King George, isn’t that 5 months away?)<br>Still, I’m sure it’ll be intriguing as ever. I wonder if Best Mate will go in it again?
Only two three year olds this season and neither should be good enough………..my thoughts.
GRANDERA (15-8 Paddy Power/Euro):- If the ground remains fast he has to have a leading chance following his recent easy 5 legnth victory,despite that race being over 10 furlongs he should be just has good over this stiff 12,if we had to pick holes in his recent form we could argue that the horses he beat last time where not group 1 class and that several in that field would have preferred easier ground (including the 2nd)……..still,probably the one they will have to beat!!
SAKHEE (2-1 Ladbrokes):-Ladbrokes seem ‘out’ to get him and i can understand their reason,on last seasons form he would run away from this field without realising he had been in a race,however,that’s the point,last year is not this year,he’s got to prove his wellbeing and on ground faster than he would like he has to be worth laying!!
GOLAN (8-1 General):- Hasn’t raced for 8 months and there lies the dilemma,his he ready?……..i would prefer a little proof before i supported the Stoute runner,has it stands i would rather watch his performance.
NAYEF (12-1 Power/365):- If the gallop reports are anything to go bye he’s back to his best,however,i would take that with a pinch of salt!,he’s got plenty to prove following his last two outings and he’s clearly not the horse he was.
ZINDABAD (14-1 bet 365):-amazing horse who keeps pulling out more improvement,however,he won’t be controlling this race from the front and i for one doubt he will be the winner in this differant type of event.
BOREAL (16-1 Lads):-Give him some give in the ground and a course like Longchamp and he will show you what he can do……this doesn’t look like his race and whilst he should acquit himself with honour a finish in the first three is unlikely.
AQUARELLISTE (16-1 Euro):- Has a lot to prove following a moody third to ANGE GABRIEL last time out,this fillies date with destiny is the ‘arc’…..don’t expect to much on saturday!!
STORMING HOME (18-1 with 365):- If you want a value bet don’t look any further,18-1 is massive and totally out of line,following a fourth in this event last season (beaten 3 legnths by Galileo) he has run some decent races in defeat,hardly the profile of a ‘King George’ winner i know,however,take into account stable form (Barry Hills horses where badly out of form at the time and now they are buzzing) and his liking for fast ground and you will see where i am coming from,this horse should have his optimum race conditions come the big day and he doesn’t have any long absence to overcome….all in all,18-1 is a lot bigger than 2-1 and that should be taken into consideration when striking a bet!!
MILLENARY (16-1 Lads):- Consistant and a credit to his trainer,he will probably finish in the first six but his lack of a finish kick will make it difficult for him to finish in the first three places.
HIGH PITCHED (20-1 Euro):- Should finish´thereabouts but lacks a turn of foot and on fast ground he will be tapped for speed.
BACH (33-1 General):- Trip has to be a worry and i can’t see it happening at this level !!
DELLA FRANCESCA (40-1 General):- 3-y-o,not capable at this level.
NARRATIVE (50-1 General):- Pacemaker for Godolphin!!
SIR GEORGE TURNER (100-1 Euro):- Big home reputation but only Mark Johnson believes he will be capable at this level.
SIR EFFENDI (300-1):- 89 rated….enough said.
Conclusion:-
Several have something to prove following lay offs and following advice from somebody at Godolphin i would suggest making a point of laying SAKHEE,the other Godolphin runner GRANDERA is the one to beat but at the 15-8 he his hardly value,with that in mind i am concentrating on getting plenty of the bigger prices about STORMING HOME (each way).
Advice: STORMING HOME (EW at 18-1 with bet 365)
I backed Boreal @ 33’s on the understanding that Fallon was on board!!(Thanks Keiron):angry:
Fallon stated a couple of months back that this was one of the best horses he had ever sat on, but now the plank is riding Golan, a tip in it’s self or just trying to get in Mr Stoute’s good books?
Peslier may be riding Boreal now, so I’m still quietly confident of a good run, but may have an interest in Golan…just in case!
Cheers,<br>Ray
Nice reviews Mesh & Tony25, my streamlined thoughts at the moment are;
I think there has got to be a question mark about Sakhee even taking part. There’s been no rain as yet & the weather looks set fair for the rest of the week. Even if they water, the best I think it will be good to firm, will they risk him on that type of ground, or save him for the Autumn?
Grandera will probably have his ground, but has never won over 12f in his life…I suppose there’s a first time for everything though! I’d be happy to try & take him on at below 2/1.
I really do hope that Aquarelliste runs, I’d look forward seeing her. If she was a guaranteed starter, I’d be having a bit on her at 16/1, that looks overpriced considering Golan, who she beat in the Arc, is only an 8/1 shot & hasn’t run for 8 months. I’d be happy to forgive her the last run.
I’ve always though highly of Nayef, & I’ve got a hunch that he is an Autumn horse. If you break down his form (I’ve ignored his Dubai win beacuse I don’t know where to put it!), his record between Apr-July is 38334, & between Aug-Oct it is 111111. You can argue that some of those 1’s were soft races, but I’m convinced he’ll be winning over the next few months.
On the likely fast ground Zindabad looks sure to run his race. I think I’d be a bit dissappointed if he was good enough to win a race like this, but I suppose anything is possible. I can’t see why Storming Home should finish in front of Zindabad? I’d hope, for the status of the race, something of true G1 class will finish in front of both of those.
<br>
<br>with narrative-pacemaker
sir george turner sir effendi no where near good enough
bach della francesca not good enough and wont stay
millianary zindebad storming home at 12f no better than grp 2 (millenary and storming home already failing to reach a place in last years race) millinary also will not be suited by ground/track either
high pitched wont like the ground and has only won at listed level
golan a horse that goes well fresh but has a mind of its own and i cant recall the last time this race was won by a horse making its debut
10 out of 15 can be deleted straight away
then we have nayef has to overcome his last 2 poor runs has only won a weak grp 1 on turf having much to prove
aquestelle another having to be forgiven not only a previous poor run but her manner in the pre race prelimineries was a concern as well she will like the ground but ascot being far stiffer than at longchamp i am not sure she will like the trip a horse i like but think may be better over 10f
boreal a genuine horse but has shown a preference for some cut in the ground which he wont be getting saturday
there all their for the taking more a formality than a race
Raymondo, Fallon is obliged to ride Golan. Stoute would have decided this i think and it’s a shame but Fallon’s got to do what his boss says, he’s staying loyal to someone he’s had a long term partnership with.
I like Nayef but it’ll be a shame if he’s good enough to win a King George. Godolphin’s record in this is brilliant to whichever of there’s runs ought to go close.
I’m a Boreal fan but fast ground is going to make his task really hard. Zindabad doesn’t have to control a race to win…he’s consistent and loves fast ground. He’ll probably run well and is a likely guide to how good the race is.
Good luck to you if you’re betting!
I advised Grandera at 5/2 on the ante post betting tips page a couple of weeks back and still feel the same, in great form, has the ground he wants and will have a good jockey on board regardless of what Frankie chooses. Sakhee certainly on his best form would easily win this but now has something to prove, and with the knees the ground won’t be ideal. As for the others, the majority probably won’t be good enough but Zindabad looks good value, on favoured fast ground and Mark Johnston has reported him in great shape at home, which will please Ihal.
On some lines of form through Indian Creek, Nayef has as good a chance as Grandera, yet is available at nearly six times the price, and Grandera is far from certain to appreciate the extra quarter mile. Back on song, as he reportedly is, he has the beating of Boreal on their Dubai running (on good).
Sakhee hasn’t been seen since March, and will not win on firm going anyhow. I’d be surprised if he even runs.
Zindabad and Storming Home are simply not good enough.
The ones that interest me for the places are Millenary (better on a more galloping track, but on my figures the fastest middle distance horse seen so far this year) and Golan (but again I have my doubts about whether 12 furlongs is really his trip).
My opinion is that if Godolphin run Sakhee they expect him to win. They would not be running him if they thought he couldn’t handle the ground, wasn’t fit enough etc. Therefor if Sakhee runs, he wins. I will be laying Grandera regardless of Sakhee running or not however. I’m sure his win last time out flattered him and not convinced (yet) he’s up to group 1 standard. He was beaten 7l or so by Sakhee last year over 1m 2f.
Of the others that would interest me are: Golan, Nayef and High Pitched.
Golan looks to have better form than most of the field barring Sakhee and has every chance. His second in the Derby would see him very close and he should make a good 4yr old.
Nayef has been knocked a lot recently but I think he’s a top class horse and can run well here before winning in the Autumn.
High Pitched is interesting. I believe he needs further than 1m 4f and when he is stepped back up to 1m 6f or more he will take the beating. However, if this race is run at a very fast pace with quite a few front runners in the field then he could come with a late run to snatch a place.
With Sakhee:
1) Sakhee<br>2) Golan<br>3) High Pitched
Without Sakhee:
1) Golan<br>2) Grandera<br>3) High Pitched
- Total Posts 9
<br>Sakhee, if they run him if the ground is right, should nail the lot of them on last year’s superb performances and Godolphin have the T Shirts with this race.
Although Zindabad is not Group One yet I wouldn’t underestimate what a tough horse he is and he has had a fantastic year so far seems to be getting better, likes the course and is apparently bouncing out of his skin.
I’d be worried about Golan making his 4-year old debut in this race, no other horse has done it and although potentially top rank, Stoute is not really delivering to his usual standards this season. Also, with his owner having died this week – will they run him?
SAKHEE as been pushed out to 4.7 at BETFAIR………from my experience that probably means he won’t be running!!
Ladbrokes have also been mad keen to ‘get him’ all week!!
Hold fire until you know more before touching the ante post market.
<br>if mark winstanley is to be believed (in last weeks rp weekender) corals have a very close relationship with godolphin and they have sakhee as favorite still.
sakhee has in the past won on g/f
Mark Winstanley may be a bit fickle. In todays Weekender he says "Get on Golan & Aquarelliste to give Godophin pair the elbow."
To give credit where it’s due, I think the Weekender have excelled themselves with their KG coverage today. All the regulars have reviewed the race, & there’s a full page pedigree review by a lady called Rachel Pagones as well.
<br>
colin
i have not yet read todays issue but i quite like the new format a big improvement over the old and leaves raceform update with a lot of catching up to do
the pedigree lady i find is quite good and informative i prefer reading her to some of tony morris columns.
I agree that the Weekender is much improved lately. I take some credit for that (only kidding) as I sent a letter to the editor a while back complaining that there were too many adverts…
I think Sakhee will take his place in the race and I think that we may see some rain between now and Saturday. I’m looking out of my office now in Wiltshire and it looks like it’s going to rain anyway.
My three are:<br>1)Sakhee<br>2)Bach<br>3)Granderra
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