April 13, 2019 at 12:14 #1417325
Agree about Ming Warrior, would much rather be backing O’Callaghan at this pre-Ascot stage of the season in juvenile races. No Nay Never obviously a superb sire and really encouraging that Ming Warrior fetched 75,000 in the sales in October having gone for a meagre 8000 in February.
Aiden’s has to be took on and you know they wont be hard on it and it will need the run. The other 2 dangers according to the market are going to need further and dont look early 5f tyoes (though neither did yesterday paul Cole winner)
Surely has to be the winner today. A good break and he will take some pegging back.April 15, 2019 at 12:35 #1417696
P&L = – 21.5 Points
2 20 Pontefract
2 Point Win – BENDY SPIRIT@14/1
2 30 Windsor
2 Point Win -WHISPERING LEAVES @16/1April 16, 2019 at 10:47 #1417759
P&L = – 25.5 Points
4 10 Newmarket
1.5 Pnt WIN-KEMBLE@5/1
1.5 Pnt WIN-GOOD VIBES@9/1
The horrific start to the teams 2yo season ends today.April 16, 2019 at 19:08 #1417821
2 15 Beverley
3 Point WIN -BIRDIE BOWERS@10/1April 17, 2019 at 09:21 #1417886
2 50 Beverley
3 Point WIN-PUERTO SOL @14/1 (BETFAIR sportsbook)April 17, 2019 at 09:31 #1417888
Worst ever start to a 2yo season by a long way. It’s somewhat soul destroying knowing the amount of time I have put into the bets as I know that my nan could have done better by picking out the names she likes.
BIRDIE BOWERS is getting heavily backed now. Dods has a very strong record with his 2yos at Beverley, this is well drawn and should be fast. Dods has a 12% overall strike rate with his 2yo debutants, that goes upto 20% when he visits Beverley with a debutant.
Of the low drawn runners Betty’s Hope ran well for the team when 2nd on the aw but that was a fillies only race and this is tougher, she did look sharp though and 1 is the plum draw if you are sharp out the stalls.
Birkenhead has had 2 races already and gets a handicap mark after this, was beaten by a filly on the aw last time.
Tonquin Valley isnt yet 2 years old until may 12th and because of that I’m leaving him alone. If he is forward for his age however he could cause a surprise.
The main danger to BIRDIE BOWERS is drawn in the carpark but if he can overcome the draw then it could well be another winner for Fahey who won both divisions of this race in 2017 with horses drawn wide.
The team think we are on the correct horse though and now just require a decent break.April 17, 2019 at 09:45 #1417889
Ellison has a 7% strike rate with all of his 2yos over the last 5 years and is hardly clinical in these races.
However there are 2 tracks that Ellison does very well at with 2yos and they are Catterick and Beverley.
He has had more 2yo winners at Beverley than any other course in his career and is 5/27 over the last 5 years.
He had had a poor 5 winners from 111 first time up 2yos in the last 10 years. Around 4.6% strike rate.
However in the last 5 seasons he has sent 14 2yos to Beverly for a racecourse debut and 3 of them won 21.4%. (5 of the 14 placed).
Horse has the best draw in stall 1, trainer sends his best 2yos to this track and he is bred to be fast.
14/1 Looks generous and this race looks weak.
Also Ellison won this race in 2016.April 17, 2019 at 10:03 #1417892
The team will be keeping a close eye on the Dods trained TROUBADOR in the 2 50 race as he has a very very special family relation.
His grandad is none other than the father of the legend himself ELEGANT ESCAPE. The team dont think he will win today (though Dods 2yos must be feared here so he could) but the team have pencilled TROUBADOR in for the 2024 Cheltenham Gold cup.April 18, 2019 at 11:26 #1418008
P&L = – 30.5 Points
2 15 Ripon – 1.5 Pnt EW -INFINITE GRACE @20/1
2 25 Newmarket
1.5 Pnt WIN-CITY WALK@12/1
1.5 Pnt WIN-MILLIONAIRE WALTZ@25/1
The shocking run continues. Birdie Bowers just 1/4 of a stride from winning the race after suffering traffic problems and having to be pulled wide. It would have won 30 points and got the team back on track but it wasnt to be.
INFINITE GRACE is the 2nd string on paper but has the best draw and her mother won 4 times at Ripon for O Meara. She looks to have a great chance today.
The newmarket race looks very tricky but City Walk and Millionaire Waltz both look perfectly capable of winning here at big odds.April 18, 2019 at 16:12 #1418031
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Good shout with Infinite Grace today, Spud. The tide is turning for you I hope!April 18, 2019 at 16:33 #1418032
P&L = – 29.0 Points
Thank you Lost Soldier should be the winner here in the 1st at chelmsford.
5 25 Chelmsford
3 Point WIN-COPACABANA DANCER @ 4/1
TUite has an outstanding 6 wins from 12 runners at Chelmsford with his juveniles in the last 5 years. He has found a brilliant opportunity once again.
CD was lightning out the stalls on debut and will be much better for the debut experience.
Another fast break from stall 2 today and he will be hard to peg back on a track that heavily favours prominent racers.
All of the other runners apart from 2 big priced outsiders are fillies so he has almost been found a debutant fillies race but he is a gelding with experience and big improvement to come. When the trainer is placing horses into races like this at chelmsford it’s no wonder he does so well here.
The girls wont know what him them and he must have a huge chance.April 18, 2019 at 17:42 #1418039
P&L = – 14.0 Points
Absolutelely sensational scenes as the devastating 2yo machine COPACABANA DANCER does the cha cha cha round chelmsford. Returned bigger at 5/1 so 15 points profit on the race and the team have got there swagger back and are ready to hit a purple patch.April 18, 2019 at 21:39 #1418051
1 40 Newcastle
1 Pnt EW – MONEYBALL@50/1
1 50 Bath
3 Pnt WIN – DONT JOKE @3/1
The only question the team are asking is ‘How far?’April 18, 2019 at 23:06 #1418090
Zulu Zander is favourite at Bath after putting his experience to good use last time winning a class 5 where half the field stumbled out the stalls and he was able to make all. This is a much tougher proposition racing in class 2 against much classier opponents and giving weight away all round and he must be vulnerable and is priced up very short at around 11/10.
I fancied ALBUM on debut but he looked physically like he needed more time and ran accordingly even though there was a lot of money about for him. Looks more of a longer term prospect and ground could be to fast for him here so think he is vulnerable today from stall 1.
The hannon filly may turn out to be the main danger and could go well to a point but the team have predicted she will be no match for the Johnston colt.
Johnston was 4 from 9 with his 2yos at bath last season and one of those was a debutant winner. MJ had a debutant winner the other week and Alminor was an impressive winner for him this week.
MJ trained DONT JOKEs mother and won on her 2yo debut with her over 5f.
A February foal who is owned by the Rooneys, the son of Slade Power who won the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot this looks a decent early 2yo, he has an entry later in the year and should relish conditions here. Franny Norton has ridden 54 career winners at Bath and is riding with confidence at present with 5 wins from 21 rides in the last 2 weeks.
Should be a nice winner for the team and cant see any of the bigger priced horses causing any problems for him.April 18, 2019 at 23:34 #1418100
Venture to CognacModerator
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Good stuff today Potato
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