The Incredible Early Season 2yo Winning Thread(c)

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This topic contains 54 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  LostSoldier3 5 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #1416132

    potato
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    Friday

    2 00 Leicester

    2 pnts WIN- SIR GORDON @ 18/1 (BF sportsbook bog)

    2 pnts WIN – MR FUDGE @ 11/2 (BET365 bog)

    What can I say. The rule was 3 points maximum on any one race.

    The rule has been broken here. I am a bad man. The team are going 4 points on the race. This channon runner is potentially too good to leave alone and we had to have 2 points on it at those crazy odds. :yes:

    #1416149

    potato
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    The 3 fillies Brown Eyes Blue, Es Que Pearl and queens road are instantly crossed out.

    BARRY MAGOS will need further and more time.

    NEVER SAID NEVER is an unlikely winner for Ellison.

    DANNY OCEAN is out of Dandy Man who was unplaced 1st time out and is 0 from 5 as a sire with his 2yos at Leicester. Karl Burke has sent 2 2yos to make there debut in the past and both were unplaced and Karl is 0 from 16 with all 2yos at Leicester in the last 10 years. Looks an unlikely winner today.

    FOAD is trained by Ed Dunlop who is 0 from 72 with his 2yos 1st time out over the last 2 seasons. He hasnt had a 2yo make a winning debut in the month of april in the last 10 years at least if ever. Hard to see this one getting involved here.

    The winner must come from the shortlist of ZULU ZANDER, SIR GORDON, SIX GUN or MR FUDGE.

    ZULU ZANDER is a short priced fav having been 3rd in the Brocklesby but the 3 or 4 to have ran since from that race didnt do much for the form of the race. He was 3rd to a Richard Fahey winner in that race. David Evan’s has just a 7% strike rate with his 2yos at Leicester all time.
    Also a high draw is better but this is the only horse on my shortlist of 4 with a low draw and he should struggle over that side. Looks a very beatable favourite.

    SIX GUN must be the biggest danger, he is drawn well in 9. Trainer Archie Watson has won with 2 of his 3 2yo runners so far though the winners were both fillies and on the aw, the only turf 2yo colt he sent out was 6th of 7.
    Prolific 2yo trainer but 1 from 8 at Leicester with 2yos. The 3 2yos he has sent to make there debut at Leicester were all beaten.
    The sire SEPOY is 0/6 with his offspring at Leicester as 2yos with all of them unplaced.
    Trainers a maestro with 2yos but looks with taking on.

    So the team are left with SIR GORDON and MR FUDGE and the team are confident of a win. Interestingly the team think SIR GORDON at the 18/1 is the likeliest winner . Either way the tema are confident. :yes:

    #1416230

    potato
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    Plenty of money about for Sir Gordon and now no bigger than 12/1. Mr Fudge is weak so far and out to 7/1.

    Sir Gordon is one of the youngest horses in the field being an April Foal. Both his mother and father were unplaced as 2yos and he didnt start racing til 3yo. His damsire was beaten on debut.
    All of the above is quite negative but hopefully he will be rqdy to win first time up.

    Channon can get them ready to win first time up and he has a strong record with 2yos at Leicester.
    Channon has sent 6 2yos to make there debut at Leicester over 5f since 2013 and incredibly 3 of them won 1 was 2nd and 2 were unplaced. That’s a remarkable 50% win strike rate with his debutants here and 66% making the top 2.

    Channon clearly knows what he is doing with his juveniles at this track and it wont be by chance that he is sending the son of Sixties Icon to track today.

    SIR GORDONS mother actually won at Leicester as did his grandad Captain Marvelous who won a listed race here.

    Sixties Icon never actually ran at Leicester but did win 3 group 3s including one at goodwood showing that he loved undulating tracks.

    The sires record with his 2yos over 5f is 13 wins from 79 runs.

    Sire record with all runners at Leicester over the last 10 years is 7 wins from 42 runs. But last season they stepped it up here and were 4 wins from 7 runs at this track.

    For some strange reason Sixties Icon offspring has a record of 7 wins from 20 runs (2yo over 5f) in the month of April since 2009 that’s over 57%. The strike rate is not even close to that percentage in all other months.

    The team felt this was potentially the most interesting 2yo runner of the year so far and at 18/1 the team were not prepared to ignore it.

    Will be interesting to see ho SIR GORDON gets on today. If he does need the run then dont worry for we have the fahey machine MR FUDGE to take care of things. Fahey runner beat the favourite in the brocklesby and he is a master at placing his early 2yos so expect.Mr Fudge to have the beating of the favourite and should Sir Gordon let us down he can take care of things for the team. :yes:

    #1416831

    potato
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    P&L = -10 Points

    2 00 Redcar

    1 pnt EW – GRACE PLUNKETT@33/1 (zbetfair sportsbook bog)

    GRACE PLUNKETT was sired by Brazen Beau. Bryan Smart trained a Brazen Beau colt to win 1st time up at Musselburgh last week and the horse looked fast and pulled clear of a strong field with Mark Johnstons Hamdam Al Maktoum owner Arimoor 2nd. That was without a doubt the strongest 2yo race of the season so far and Brazen Beau may do very well in these early season sprints and could be a sire to follow.

    Brazen Beau won 1st time up as a 2yo, the damsire Azamour won 1st time up as a 2yo and then won a group 2 on his 2nd 2yo start, the dam won over 6f on her 2nd start as a 2yo and GRACE PLUNKETTS half brother hacked up in the strongest 2yo race of the season so far first time up.

    So she looks bred to be very fast early and is a February foal so should be quite forward physically.

    This is Richard Spencer’s first turf runner of 2019 and he should have a good chance of making a winning start to the turf season.

    Spencer had 5 2yos make there debut over 5f last year producing 1 winner and a place which is encouraging and he has a 12% strike rate overall with his 1st time out 2yos so can get them ready first time.

    Spencer was 12 wins from 46 runs with his 2yos in novice races in 2018 which is a very impressive 26% strike rate.

    Paul Hannagan has ridden 71 winners at Redcar in his career and has ridden 113 2yo winners in the last 5 seasons alone so Spencer has certainly booked the right man to get this home today and it should go very well at incredible odds.

    Exclusively and Great Dame should both go well and are the dangers to the brilliant and lightning fast GRACE PLUNKETT.

    #1416842

    potato
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    2 50 Windsor

    1.5 pnt EW- CHAMPAGNE SUPANOVA@14/1 (Most firms except hills)

    A sensational second Richard Spencer trained 2yo but this team the team are going in hard and maximum style.

    The team have predicted that Richard Spencer is in for quite a day. :yes:

    #1416892

    potato
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    Agonizingly Grace Plunkett was punted into 16/1 from 33/1 but fell out the stalls and was always playing catch up.

    A rule 4 on the Windsor race means only 1.5 points profit on the race and a loss of half a point on the day.

    P&L= -10.5 points

    THE TEAM WILL SOON BE JUMPING
    WHEN THE 2YOS START A PUMPING B-)

    #1417072

    potato
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    2 00 Newbury

    3 Pnts WIN- ALBUM@7/4

    THE TEAM NEEDED SOME SPEED
    SO THE TEAM WENT WITH THE MEADE :yes:

    The team are fully expecting to be collecting here. Should be odds on, 7/4 looks a gift。

    #1417131

    potato
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    Martyn Meade has upped his training game since taking over the historic manton stables and plenty of money is being pumped into the operation.

    In his first year at Manton last year he unleashed a 2yo machine to make his debut at Newbury. That horse was of course ADVERTISE who won easily on his Newbury debut, he also won the July stakes at Newmarket and then audaciously went to Ireland and took the group 1 Phoenix stakes off Aidan o brien giving his 3 runners one hell of a beating in there own back yard. He finally ran in the Dewhurst and only TOO DARN HOT could beat him but he was real top class 2yo.

    ALBUM is owned by Phoenix Thoroughbred limited who also own Advertise.

    Both the sire and the dam sire were fast early 2yos who both remained unbeaten as juveniles.

    Album has entries in the wetherbys super sprint and the goffs premier yearling stakes and connections will be expecting to win this race today with the minimum of fuss before going onto better things.

    Without doubt the best 2yo we have witnessed in the uk so far this season.

    Could be in a different parish to this lot today.

    The awfully named KLOPP OF THE KOP sounds more destined for southwell sellers than royal ascot group 1s, his trainer was 0/15 with 2yos at Newbury last season. Has the same entries as Album and is also a feb foal but should have no answer to Album here.

    CHATANOOGA BOY is trained by George Scott who hasnt had a winner for 99 days. Horse is bred to be fast and early, he was going to run in the brocklesby but was a non runner. This race is much hotter than the brocklesby and he is likely to struggle though is at the time of writing the best backed horse in this race.

    Hannon trained the fav for this race last year who was unplaced and out with the washing. He runs a filly this year and it’s hard to see her troubling a colt of Albums class.

    None of the others are really worthy of a mention, plenty of these 2yos are capable and will pick up some races this season but ALBUM is quite simply from another planet.

    The team have been placed on :

    POTENTIAL SUPERSTAR ALERT :heart: :rose:

    This horse could be a multiple group 1 winner and a classic winner.

    The form book of the future will show us that these pitiful rivals never stood a chance against flats new superstar :yes:

    #1417142
    TheKryptonFactor
    TheKryptonFactor
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    Love this thread, Potato. Been watching every 2 year-old race so far this season quite carefully. I’m taking a more positive view on the Brocklesby form so far, Zulu Zander franked the form impressively enough to cancel out Birkenhead’s disappointment (who was well behind at Doncaster). Are you following the Irish 2 year-olds as well, or just the British ones?

    #1417150

    potato
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    I think the brocklesby has turned up 2 winners so far, Zulu zander and the other Evan’s horse who was 4th in brocklesby won next time out.

    I think those 2 wins were more down to the experience helped them against debutants next time than the brocklesby being an overly strong race though time will tell.

    I’m doing a bet on every uk juvenile race and some Irish races though not all. 2 races in Ireland tomorrow and Likely to play in both of them.
    Aiden O Briens are always priced up really short and are always worth taking on at this time of year.

    #1417152
    TheKryptonFactor
    TheKryptonFactor
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    Agree about taking on Aidan at this stage of the season. Time will tell with the Brocklesby, I’m quite keen on Strong Power from that race.

    #1417191

    potato
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    P&L= -13.5 Points

    What a horrific start to the 2019 season so far.
    Huge day on Saturday with 4 juvenile races and the team are playing in 3 of the 4.


    1 50 Naas
    2 Point WIN -MING WARRIOR@9/1

    2 00 Thirsk
    3 Point WIN – WAR OF CLANS@5/1

    2 30 Thirsk
    3 Point WIN- BAILEYS FREEDOM@5/1

    The team are ready. :yes:

    #1417247

    potato
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    A classic example of an.aiden o Brien early 2yo in the opener at Naas, cost an absolute shed load of money and is currently priced between 8/13 and 8/11.

    I’d fully expect it to start drifting sometime this morning and return a very uneasy odds against and get beaten. MING WARRIOR is massively overpriced due to the presence of O’Brien but he has a high chance today.

    Over at Thirsk I have put my faith in the race won by proper beau at musselburgh. War Clan was 3rd and Baileys Freedom was only 6th of 7.
    Karl Burkes 2yos have looked to be needing there first run this season and after showing promise on debut I’m really expecting a big run today.
    I strongly fancied Baileys Freedom on debut but I underestimated the wide draw and he wasnt given a hard time at all. I’m expecting him to know his job today and prove very hard to beat.

    David Evan’s is 5/9 at Thirsk with his 2yos and HEER WE GO AGAIN has a chance to frank the brocklesby form even more I see this horse as the danger to War Clan.

    Ventura Rebel would be my main danger to Baileys Freedom.

    Massive day for the team. :yes:

    #1417311
    TheKryptonFactor
    TheKryptonFactor
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    Agree about Ming Warrior, would much rather be backing O’Callaghan at this pre-Ascot stage of the season in juvenile races. No Nay Never obviously a superb sire and really encouraging that Ming Warrior fetched 75,000 in the sales in October having gone for a meagre 8000 in February.

    #1417320

    potato
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    This team will never follow the money and feed on the scraps of others.

    2 very big juvenile gambles have been happening AFTER the team placed the bets.

    MING WARRIOR has seen one of the biggest morning plunges in Ireland on a 2yo since Galileo was unleashed at Leopardstown and beat 15 other rivals pulling a mindblowing 14 lengths clear of the 2nd.
    THE MINGSTERMINATOR is now as short as 4/1 having been available at 10 this morning.

    BAILEYS FREEDOM has also seen the uk big boys come out to play and he is now as short as 5/2 with coral and ladbrokes having been readily available at 11/2 this morning.
    I predicted the horse was going to royal ascot before his first race, only a devastating victory today and nothing else will mean the dream is still alive.

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