March 24, 2019 at 12:07 #1403689
There is no better time of year to make money from racing than at this time of year. The early season 2yos always end up showing a big profit.
97% of punters will probably say that you shouldn’t bet in these races and it is just guessing, however 97% of punters probably lose money long term so the team dont listen to them.
The team are ready. Let the early season 2yo winning thread commence.
Absolute guarantee that all bets will have been very heavily researched and each race meticulously looked at to ensure a nice profit.
I class early season as up to and first 2/3 weeks or so of when the 6f 2yo races start appearing.
2 points will be used as standard in a race whether that’s on one horse or split.
Some races will use 3 points aka MAX bet.
Almost every british 2yo race will have a bet in. Occasional bets in Irish 2yo races also.
Let the racing commence.
If an absolute minimum p&l of plus 50 points is not reached then I would personally consider it to be highly embarrassing.
P&L will of course be updated after each race.
TO ENSURE A MINIMUM OF PROFIT FIFTY
ENSURE ALL 2YOS ARE NIFTYMarch 24, 2019 at 12:13 #1403691
1pnt WIN-THE KING OF KELLS@12/1 (bet365)
1pnt WIN-VALUE CHAIN@8/1 (bet365)
The team are really looking forward to the first 2yo race of 2019 and as per usual are expecting to be collecting.March 24, 2019 at 13:07 #1403707Nathan HughesParticipant
- Total Posts 20978
Good luck Potato and team
I was in the newsagents the other day
and was taking a look at racing ahead
I didn’t get to read a lot as the rude cashier asked me if I was buying or browsing
so I left but did notice that Easterby starts the season wellDon't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nMarch 24, 2019 at 13:16 #1403710
Thank you Nathan. I have no idea who newsagents think they are these days, it was only earlier today when a newsagent asked if he could help me!
Can you imagine?March 24, 2019 at 17:50 #1403736
King of Kells lost the race out of the stalls (the team expect to get a few of these over the next month or so).
Value Chain was 2nd and ran very well.
P&L = -2pnts
The team will return for round 2 in the Brocklesby on Saturday.March 28, 2019 at 17:12 #1410726
17 runners line up for the big 2yo opener on Saturday at Doncaster.
The team have this brocklesby on absolute lockdown we must now sit back and wait to see what the odds on offer are tomorrow.
What a race to kick off the season.March 29, 2019 at 18:52 #1413417
2 pnt WIN- ZULU ZANDER @10/1 (Bet365 bog)
1 pnt WIN -PADDY ELLIOT @33/1 (Betfair sportsbook Paddy power both bog)
It’s an incredible ‘Max Bet’ in The Brocklesby Stakes. The team are brimming with confidence.March 29, 2019 at 18:54 #1413418
duplicateMarch 30, 2019 at 17:18 #1414930
P&L = -5 Points
2 races, got a 2nd at 12/1 and a 3rd at 18/1 the team are all about the win however.
The team can relax as it’s only a matter of time til they start hitting.
Theres nothing this team loves more than an early season 2yo.April 1, 2019 at 19:48 #1415487
2 Pnts WIN- HEER WE GO AGAIN @7/1 (bet365 bog)
7/1 is offensive considering Birkenhead is 15/8 fav. This runner should be no bigger than 5/4 in this race with Birkenhead who should be 7/1.
The team know what to do, they dont need telling twice.April 1, 2019 at 20:20 #1415497
3 Pnts WIN – BAILEYS FREEDOM@ 4/1 (BET365 bog)
The team could not even have dreamt they would be witnessing a 2yo of this level.of ability at this stage of the season.
This looks quite special indeed, the team are saying this could be a Royal Ascot runner later in the year. Huge shock if anything can beat this one.
ALL OTHERS GET A TAXI
COS THE TEAM JUST WENT MAXIApril 1, 2019 at 21:45 #1415520
ALMINOR is the favourite which isnt surprising as he is Mark Johnstons 1st 2yo of the year and is running in the colors of Hamdam Al Maktoum who’s 2yos are 2 from 4 at Musselburgh over the last 5 years.
He is by far the most expensive and was a 135k yearling, Hamdam Al Maktoum was 9 wins from 22 runs with his turf 2yos last year. Mark Johnston is 14 wins from 67 runs with his 2yos here over the last 5 years.
Kodiac is the sire and his offspring are 9 wins from 50 runs with 2yos at Musselburgh in the last 10 years.
It’s easy to see why ALMINOR is favourite.
However the team believe it will be beaten here.
Although Kodiac offspring has a great record at musselburgh with 2yos they are 0 from 10 with 2yo debutants at musselburgh with 8 of the 10 being unplaced first time up here.
Daddy aka Kodiac was beaten 1st time up as a 2yo, the mother Aronian was beaten in all 3 of her 2yo races.
Crowley was initially booked to make the long journey to Scotland to ride this but P Mccdonald is now taking the ride. Would have been a long way to come for Crowley to get beaten.
It’s unlikely they will want to be tough on the horse on debut as it will develop into a decent 2yo and although MJ is perfectly capable of having them ready to win first time up all signs point to this one being a progressive improver who will come on massively for his debut run. MJ trained the evens favourite for this race last year and that finished last of 3.
BAILEYS FREEDOM looks faster than lightning and twice as exciting.
Archie Watson is 5 wins from 9 runners at Musselburgh and is 1 from 1 with his 2yos here. Anything he sends to the track must be taken very seriously indeed.
The 2yo maestro jockey edward GREATrex is booked and he is 10/48 on Watsons juveniles.
Sired by Muharaar this is the first of his offspring to race. Muharaars said fee is 30k which is more than any of the other runners sires stud fees bar the favourite.
Muharaar won on his 2yo debut and went on to win 4 group 1 races.
The mother Baileys Jubilee also won 1st time up as a 2yo and was also a listed winner over 5f as a 2yo.
With both mummy and daddy being lightning fast early 2yos who won on debut then it’s fair to assume BAILEYS FREEDOM will be ready willing and able.
The damsire Bahamian Bounty record as a damsire is 9 2yo runners at musselburgh. Those 9 runs produced 3 wins and 3 places.
This classy 2yo really does look like he was born to run a huge race here on Tuesday. It will take a Frankel level horse to stop him.
Archie Watson has never lost a 2yo race at Musselburgh, in 2018 he had 5 horse make there debut on turf with 1 winning and 3 placing.
He also has the best record of these trainers in 2yo turf novice races over the last 5 years with a 27% strike rate.
COAST OF ALFJURAM is the youngest in the field and an april foal, trainer does well with 2yos here. He isn’t in the best of form at present with older horses and both K Stott and S Gray are more significant jockey bookings on Ryan’s 2yos than Eaves though he does ride some winners for Ryan.
Mystic Knight is trained by easterby who has a poor 6% strike rate with 2yos though is 4/21 with 2yos at muss last 5 years. Easterbys 2yos dont as a rule tend to get going in april and he has had just 1 winner from 18 2yo turf runners in the last 3 years in the month of april. Since 2014 he has had 54 2yo winners but only 6 of the 54 came in the spring. He has had just 4 debut winners with turf 2yos from 85 runners over 5f in last 5 years and all 4 of the 2yo 5f debutant winners came at yorkshire tracks- Thirsk, Pontefract, Beverly and Ripon. His record in 2yo turf novice races is just 6%.
PROPER BEAU is the oldest horse in the race, Smart had 7 2yo winners last season with Graham Lee riding 6 of the 7 winners. Trainer is 2 from 19 last 5 years with 2yos here. He has sent 6 2yos to musselburgh to make there racecourse debut since 2014 with 1 winning and 5 of the 6 beaten.
The mother was unraced as a 2yo, the father won 1st time up in australia and the damsire Pivotal is 0 winners from 5 at musselburgh over 5f with 2yo debutants here.
Smart has the 2nd worst record out of these trainers in 2yo novice races and his strike rate is 11%.
The main danger for me is Karl Burkes WAR OF CLANS. Karl is very capable of having them ready to win 1st time out, he is in very good form with his older horses at present, the sire Ivawood won 1st time up as a 2yo over 5f as well as winning 2 group 2s as a 2yo. The mother never won a race but was 2nd on her 2yo debut albeit over 6f.
The team believe this BAILEYS FREEDOM is the teams first 2yo winner of the season. They will not hear of defeat.
THEY OFFERED US 4/1
SO I TOLD THE TEAM HAVE MAXIMUM FUNApril 2, 2019 at 11:38 #1415561
Unsurprisingly lots of money on Mark Johnstons horse at Musselburgh , the team would have been very surprised had money not come for that one.
Over at Lingfield the team are expecting FORCED to be in need of the run today and she will do better as she steps up in trip. The Ed Walker filly ELECTRIC LADYLAND should also be better for the experience, shes an april foal and one of the younger runners here, her draw in stall 10 isnt good, she will be better over further and could struggle to get into the race today. Her father was unplaced on 2yo debut but then won 2nd time up over 6f and her mother was unplaced all 3 2yo runs, she is likely to need more time though her trainer is excellent with 2yos.
Hard to fancy any of the outsiders the main danger to HEER WE GO AGAIN is his stablemate HYPOCHINDRIAC who is currently 16/1 and could outrun that price and go close today.
BIRKENHEAD finished 1 3/4 lengths in front of HEER WE GO AGAIN in the brocklesby but there is good reason to expect that form to be reversed today.
Birkenhead knew his job and traveled through the race like an experienced horse as such he is unlikely to find much improvement for the experience of racing just 3 days ago. HEER WE GO however dwelt out the stalls and was one of the worst to break, he ran green and although he showed some promise he looked like he would benefit greatly for that experience and is likely to be much wiser this time. That alone should be enough to reverse the form however on Saturday HEER WE GO was ridden by Eoin Walsh, Adam Kirby takes over today who is one of the best riders of this track also david Evan’s has a 21% strike rate with 2yos at lingfield compared to Mick Channon who has just a 6% strike rate with 2yos here.
If all of that wasn’t enough then in the last 5 years david Evan’s has ran 5 2yos at Lingfield who were running between 1 and 7 days after there last run and it produced 2 winners, 2 places and one unplaced.
The team believe they have 2 sensational juvenile winners on their hands today. Soon they will find out if they were correct.April 3, 2019 at 13:47 #1415906
P+L = -10 Points
4 races and 4 defeats not exactly hit the ground running but that will change, of that the team have no doubts.
4 40 Kempton
1 Pnt EW- BETTYS HOPE@25/1
The favourite is the likeliest winner and the MJ horse is the 2nd most likeliest winner so the market looks about right and 10/11 or 3/1 dont really make appeal. No surprise whatsoever if either of these 2 market leaders win but the interesting runner at huge odds is BETTYS HOPE and she looks capable of going close and may even cause a shock here so the team are playing it ew but dont be surprised if she wins pulling a cart.April 3, 2019 at 16:51 #1415939
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