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I haven’t looked at the race in great detail and I’m not planning to i’ve backed
Imperial Commander
most will say he isn’t the horse he was and at 12 is over the hill.
But
wouldn’t it just be typical of our magnificent sport if the former Gold Cup winners last race resulted in him winning the Hennessy.
Yet more evidence this afternoon of Henderson’s horses not being as fit FTO as usual. I’d be wary of Hadrian’s Approach for that reason and a lack of race fitness won’t help his jumping.
Yet more evidence this afternoon of Henderson’s horses not being as fit FTO as usual. I’d be wary of Hadrian’s Approach for that reason and a lack of race fitness won’t help his jumping.
Hadrian’s Approach had a recent run at Kempton, would agree about Henderson’s first time out though. A worry for My Tent Or Yours supporters?
IMO
Rocky Creek
has a much better chance than anything else. I have him as a fair 11/2 shot in my book. Always looked a stayer, so potential to improve at this trip for excellent, in form stable. Idles and may be better than shown so far. Beat subsequent easy Ascot Handicap winner Houblon Des Obeaux by a comfortable 1 3/4 lengths in Reynoldstown; yet is now 3 lbs better off.
Others I like are:
Loch Ba
: Isn’t that consistent, but has a win at this (his local) track. Possibly best in Autumn/Winter. Good second in a valuable handicap at Bangor on reappearance, staying on. Trip and ground should not be a worry. The one thing that is, is his jumping, but price makes it easy to take a chance and never known Mick Channon in better form!
Hadrians Approach is another dodgy jumper. Given the impression could win a big race if putting it all together. As Mark says, stable’s runners have been needing a run, so Kempton second should bring him on. Barry has forsaken Hadrian for Trio!
Each to his own, but the two can not be judged on home work. HA a stayer where as TDL has enough speed for 2 1/2 miles. May be the horse has fallen in schooling, which could be a big negative. But at around 14/1 is worth chancing for at least a saver. Stable not in such poor form as some might believe, with plenty of runner-up spots by horses without the form to win.Highland Lodge is another who may be best this time of year, lost form after some very promising displays in early novices. Right back to best at Wincanton. Came well clear of the rest when chasing home a Pipe hot-pot (winner since). Stable still firing winners in, two winners at Donny Friday. HL Stays really well and is a front-runner. Hopefully will be ok being taken on, Whodoyouthink, Super Duty, Katenko and Houblon Des Obeaux are others likely to take a prominent position.
Last named Houblon Des Obeaux worth at least a saver. Stamina test should be in his favour, travelled well at just 3 miles last time. Stable not quite in the same form now, but 33/1 is easy to overlook that.
Merry King followed home HDO last time and is 7 lbs better off for 6 lengths. May come on for the run and (by Old Vic) this trip could see more improvement.
I’ve backed Rocky Creek (ante-post) @ 12/1 and Loch Ba @ 25/1 with the others as savers. Probably choose another main bet from those.
Value Is EverythingOh rats; I’m just getting ready for my trip oop north and had decided not to have a bet for tomorrow
but seeing the last post I said to myself ‘if Houblon isn’t mentioned I’ll not bother’ and, blow me there he is
But I don’t want to put a curse on Liam so I’ll just watch the race.Yet more evidence this afternoon of Henderson’s horses not being as fit FTO as usual. I’d be wary of Hadrian’s Approach for that reason and a lack of race fitness won’t help his jumping.
Hadrian’s Approach had a recent run at Kempton, would agree about Henderson’s first time out though. A worry for My Tent Or Yours supporters?
Forgot about the Kempton run !
I laid Ericht for that reason. That and Tinkler’s terrible form in the saddle.
Just seen an ad for an aftershave called Invictus, that’s as good a tip as any for me! Will go for that, Same Diff and my old fav the Commander. Looks a real puzzle though!
Yet more evidence this afternoon of Henderson’s horses not being as fit FTO as usual. I’d be wary of Hadrian’s Approach for that reason and a lack of race fitness won’t help his jumping.
Hadrian’s Approach had a recent run at Kempton, would agree about Henderson’s first time out though. A worry for My Tent Or Yours supporters?
Forgot about the Kempton run !
I laid Ericht for that reason. That and Tinkler’s terrible form in the saddle.
Mark, you’re not the first to mention Henderson’s horses not being fit or the stable being out of form, however I have absolutely no idea why you, or anyone else, has formed this opinion.
In the last week Henderson has run 27 horses, 7 have won, 10 were second and 3 were third. That’s a win strike rate that’s better than 25%.
I’m also not sure what you mean about forgetting the Kempton run. It was his first run back after the break and he just failed (beaten by a nse) to get up over a distance which is clearly shorter than he likes. I think it’s a pretty good prep race for this. The occasional sketchy jump apart, I’m struggling to find a negative for Hadrian’s Approach, in fact I had another tilt at 14/1 with Coral before that disappeared. I’m hopeful.
Mark, you’re not the first to mention Henderson’s horses not being fit or the stable being out of form, however I have absolutely no idea why you, or anyone else, has formed this opinion.
In the last week Henderson has run 27 horses, 7 have won, 10 were second and 3 were third. That’s a win strike rate that’s better than 25%.
In relation to how he normally fares at this time of year. It’s his worst November in some time. 2009 39% 2001 37% for example.
I know this stable better than any other and they normally have their horses fitter FTO and winning than they are at present.
You’re talking about a trainer that can consistently hit 30-40% at the most competitive time of the season.I’m also not sure what you mean about forgetting the Kempton run. It was his first run back after the break and he just failed (beaten by a nse) to get up over a distance which is clearly shorter than he likes. I think it’s a pretty good prep race for this. The occasional sketchy jump apart, I’m struggling to find a negative for Hadrian’s Approach, in fact I had another tilt at 14/1 with Coral before that disappeared. I’m hopeful.
I said i forgot about the Kempton run, not to forget about it.
Mark, you’re not the first to mention Henderson’s horses not being fit or the stable being out of form, however I have absolutely no idea why you, or anyone else, has formed this opinion.
In the last week Henderson has run 27 horses, 7 have won, 10 were second and 3 were third. That’s a win strike rate that’s better than 25%.
In relation to how he normally fares at this time of year. It’s his worst November in some time. 2009 39% 2001 37% for example.
I know this stable better than any other and they normally have their horses fitter FTO and winning than they are at present.
You’re talking about a trainer that can consistently hit 30-40% at the most competitive time of the season.I’m also not sure what you mean about forgetting the Kempton run. It was his first run back after the break and he just failed (beaten by a nse) to get up over a distance which is clearly shorter than he likes. I think it’s a pretty good prep race for this. The occasional sketchy jump apart, I’m struggling to find a negative for Hadrian’s Approach, in fact I had another tilt at 14/1 with Coral before that disappeared. I’m hopeful.
I said i forgot about the Kempton run, not to forget about it.
I’ve no reason to doubt you Mark if you say he normally fares better at this time of year, even if the two examples you mention are four and twelve years ago. I know his yearly jumps averages over the past ten years has ranged between 15% and 27%, so I still don’t think that 25% in the past week smacks of a stable out of form. I don’t have FTO figures or figures specifically for past Novembers for Henderson’s stable, but if you say historically he has done better during that period then fair enough.
Apologies re the "forgot/to forget" thing, I simply misread that.
I’ve no reason to doubt you Mark if you say he normally fares better at this time of year, even if the two examples you mention are four and twelve years ago. I know his yearly jumps averages over the past ten years has ranged between 15% and 27%, so I still don’t think that 25% in the past week smacks of a stable out of form. I don’t have FTO figures or figures specifically for past Novembers for Henderson’s stable, but if you say historically has done better during that period then fair enough.
Apologies re the "forgot/to forget" thing, I simply misread that.
Sorry, that’s supposed to be 2011 37%, not 2001.
I’ve just watched his mini stable tour on the RP and am flabbergasted at his complaints about not having a suitable race for Captain Conan. Seems genuinely upset that he cant run him !!!
The Haldon Gold Cup, where he would have run off a lovely weight similar to that of the winner Sommersby.
The Amlin
The ShloerCome on, Nicky. It’s just poor race management.
Oh rats; I’m just getting ready for my trip oop north and had decided not to have a bet for tomorrow
but seeing the last post I said to myself ‘if Houblon isn’t mentioned I’ll not bother’ and, blow me there he is
But I don’t want to put a curse on Liam so I’ll just watch the race.Damn it, knew I’d forgotten something; studied stamina, speed, temperament, going, jockey, trainer, pace, etc… Forgot I should’ve included whether Moehat has backed the horse or not. I’ve heard it makes a big difference to Houblon’s chance.
Value Is EverythingHi all, glad the jumps season is backup and in full swing!
Just had a quick look at the Weekender. The last 3 RSA chase winners to contest the Hennessy have won, so it’s Lord Windermere for me
As difficult a Hennessy to call, as I can remember, and win or lose, looks a race to really enjoy.
Extremely difficult to write off, all but a couple of them, and you could tie yourself in knots with it. Dangers everywhere you look, but got have some kind of an interest, so came down to these….
The head says Rocky Creek, or Lord Windermere, the market leaders, but I’ll take a chance with, Katenko, and Our Father. Merry King also keeps coming back to me.
Katenko was hugely impressive last year, and feel he would have been difficult to peg back, had he made it to The Gold Cup. Sadly, illness intervened, and by all accounts it was a particularly nasty case of colic. How well he’s recovered, is of course, up for debate, but I’m sure Venetia Williams wouldn’t introduce him into a race like this, without being happy with him. Thought of as, primarily, a horse who performs best on (very) soft going, he’s never really raced on anything else though. Done most of his racing at Auteil, where it’s always soft anyway, and he had no option to run on anything else over here last season. It’s a leap of faith how he performs on the ground today, coupled with how well he’s recovered, but I’ve got to keep the faith…….and just hope there’s no ill effects from his illness.
Our Father is, in all reality, maybe a little short on what he’s actually achieved, but his performance at Cheltenham last season, when fresh, is difficult to ignore, and a huge run looks in the offing based on that, he was hugely impressive. No concerns either with the jockey change.
Merry King looks the type to revel in this kind of trip, and was more than happy with his run last time out. Can see him running a huge race here, before attempting to repeat the feat in The Welsh National.
GL
Had to laugh watching ATR when Enzo said that it was 10/1 the field, seconds later they had the Ladbrokes rep on with their odds and the first four in the betting were 7/1 7/1 8/1 and 9/1
Considering that Bet Victor had their fav at 10/1, Enzo should have ripped into the Ladbrokes guy but we got the usual bland and predictable no comment instead.In a suicidal looking heat I’ll chance Merry King as a contender with time on his side, a workable weight and a chance of more to come at the trip. A bogey race for Jonjo but I think his lad has each-way appeal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have gone for Highland Lodge, although worried it might be a bit quick for him.
With 5 places I’ve had a couple of quid ew on Terminal; if he jumps well, he really shouldn’t be too far from Lord Windermere…
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