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i’ve gone for rocky creek and lord windemere , what do you think of invictus chances? he beat bobs worth on his last run which was back in 2012 as he been off
imperial commander this will be his last race could it be his swansong?
vf
I’m backing Highland Lodge and Theatre Guide.
HL would be single figures in the betting here, I think, were it not for Invictus being so highly touted. It’s not so much the layoff the King horse has had that deters me, it’s his lack of experience in a field this size in a top notch handicap.
The last 4 races he contested had a total of 25 runners, and he might well be saying to himself after the first three fences, "Hey, this isn’t how I remember things!"
As far as I could see Theatre Guide’s experience of a big field was an abismal performance at the Cheltenham Festival. Presumably on that basis he will be thinking ‘I love this’ after three fences? Highland Lodge ran in a successions of small fields prior to his last two runs. I thought he had a very hard race against Standing Ovation and that is probably why he isn’t any shorter.
Most first season novices will not see a large field unless they take in one or more of the Festivals and unfortunately Invictus didn’t make the RSA. The market support prior to his defection would seem to indicate that plenty of people didn’t think that Reynoldstown win was a flash in the pan. Yes, he might fall at the first but then again so might an old handicapper with masses of big field form. That is the nature of the game.
All very true, but Theatre Guide’s not 7s fav, he’s 33s, and he’s been off for 26 days not 651. But you might be right. Good luck
Theatre Guide ran badly at Cheltenham bacause he still hadn’t regained his confidence after his previous fall when, according to the trainer ‘he nearly broke his neck’. Seems to be getting his confidence back though. He’d also had to have a wind op earleir in the season. Still didn’t stop Moorcroft Boy from winning the Scottish National [and he did break his].
Theatre Guide ran badly at Cheltenham bacause he still hadn’t regained his confidence after his previous fall when, according to the trainer ‘he nearly broke his neck’. Seems to be getting his confidence back though. He’d also had to have a wind op earleir in the season. Still didn’t stop Moorcroft Boy from winning the Scottish National [and he did break his].
As we know trainers are full of excuses. If the horse was short of confidence probably not the best idea to throw him at the most competitive race of his life. Moorcroft Boy was a thorough stayer, Theatre Guide was last seen weakening out of contention on a sharp track over 2m4f. He doesn’t shape like a horse who is suddenly going to find a couple of stone improvement for the step up in trip.
A little perturbed that nobody has mentioned Super Duty. Is he still running? 11lb better off for a head beating by Same Difference at Cheltenham before finishing just behind Rocky Creek at Aintree (3lb better off). Best price currently 20/1 and won’t mind what ground turns up on Saturday.
I am a fan of Katenko so if it turned up soft would give a chance, as I would Loch Ba at the bottom of the handicap. The forecast however looks dry right up till Saturday.
Like Steeplechasing I will be having a little on Theatre Guide as a saver
Super Duty is also in the Rehearsal, isn’t he ? Haven’t really considered it for the Hennessy as Maguire hasn’t ridden a chase winner at the course in at least 5 years. Also think there are others better handicapped.
For similar statistical reasons i’m now slightly less enthused about the chances of Highland Lodge because Leighton Aspell is also winnerless over these fences in the last five years at 0-19.
Will be backing Loch Ba as i’m convinced there’s a good staying handicap within his reach this season. Trends are against him but 33-1 is too big and a place at least is possible. Channon’s horses seem to have upped a gear in the last week.
Super Duty is also in the Rehearsal, isn’t he ? Haven’t really considered it for the Hennessy as Maguire hasn’t ridden a chase winner at the course in at least 5 years. Also think there are others better handicapped.
For similar statistical reasons i’m now slightly less enthused about the chances of Highland Lodge because Leighton Aspell is also winnerless over these fences in the last five years at 0-19.
Will be backing Loch Ba as i’m convinced there’s a good staying handicap within his reach this season. Trends are against him but 33-1 is too big and a place at least is possible. Channon’s horses seem to have upped a gear in the last week.
Records are there to be broken!
Whilst Lord Windermere could hardly be said to be thrown in on the RSA form. His profile looks to have a big upside.
The usually heavy ground in Ireland in the winter/spring has meant most of the top prospects stick to 20f these days before the RSA and dont see 3 miles over fences till the Wednesday of Cheltenham.
Given LW has ran only once over 24f+ and that was to win his novice championship on g/s ground in the RSA then Newbury’s 26f on similar ground would seem very enticing.
Big upside for me and the natural pick.Big drift for Invictus. I thought he would go off at 4/1 but now available at 11/1. Seemingly King singing from the same sheet as Steeplechasing. Still they have now shunted him out to a big enough price to enable Pricewise to tip him up so still a chance he could return to his initial price. If the trainer really had so many misgivings why use the most competitive handicap as his starting point?
I’m confused. I posted earlier that I thought that Hadrian’s Approach had a cracking chance, and I’ve got no reason to change that. The one thing which is a little concerning, is that Geraghty is down to ride Triolo D’Alene. Admittedly he has ridden the last nine rides on both horses, but Hadrian’s was generally 10/1, and as low as 8/1 whilst Triolo is now a 20/1 shot. Not surprisingly Hadrian’s has drifted out to 12/1 whilst Triolo is into 20/1 from 25s.
I can’t say I’m not a bit disappointed that Geraghty is not on Hadrian’s, he is my favourite jockey, but Nico de Boinville is a hugely talented young jockey who’s 5lb claim brings Hadrian’s mark back down to his last win at Ascot last year, and his second to Dynaste in the Feltham at Kempton on boxing day. I already pointed out that he was third to Lord Windermere in the RSA at the festival this year, having made far too many mistakes to be closer than just over 7 lengths, but is reopposing 8lbs to the good for that. This means he is now 13lbs (with N de B’s claim) better off with LW, who is 7/1 clear favourite.
Perhaps it’s going to be a Nicky Henderson punt, you don’t trust someone to ride out Sprinter Sacre and Long Run every day unless you have faith in them, so perhaps his price will shorten again. I think it’s worthwhile having an extra couple of quid at 12/1, he looks well handicapped to me. The ground is still good to soft (good in places) with a possibility of some showers on Friday, I don’t think it will ride any firmer than good, maybe g/s in places, which will still be ok.
I think it’s also with one eye on the Spring. Triolo is Aintree bound with Geraghty certain to ride there and he’s staying with that horse. Also, as you say, it makes sense to take some weight off Hadrian’s Approach and NDB is more capable than some senior jockeys.
The latter horse is genuine and talented but i’d be surprised if he had the class to win this. Looks more suited to a National of some kind in a year or 18 months time. Just looks a thorough stayer and i think for a Hennessy you need a touch more quality.I actually think Henderson has more stayers in the yard than he realises and several horses switch between 2 1/2 and 3 miles without ever setting the world alight because they need further. He’s not known for staying handicaps. RSA and Hennessy wins have come from horses intended for the Gold Cup.
Come on, Leighton. Break that duck.
Once betting opens up, empty the bank balance on Our Father.
That is all.
No offence but I thought your post on the Arc thread was bullshine, it has been proven so subsequently, and you have not posted on the thread since.
Thanks buddy! 16/1 when betting first opened now 8/1 with us.
OF could only win if the heavens opened – much rather side with Same Difference at 20s.
I think it’s also with one eye on the Spring. Triolo is Aintree bound with Geraghty certain to ride there and he’s staying with that horse. Also, as you say, it makes sense to take some weight off Hadrian’s Approach and NDB is more capable than some senior jockeys.
The latter horse is genuine and talented but i’d be surprised if he had the class to win this. Looks more suited to a National of some kind in a year or 18 months time. Just looks a thorough stayer and i think for a Hennessy you need a touch more quality.I actually think Henderson has more stayers in the yard than he realises and several horses switch between 2 1/2 and 3 miles without ever setting the world alight because they need further. He’s not known for staying handicaps. RSA and Hennessy wins have come from horses intended for the Gold Cup.
Come on, Leighton. Break that duck.
Lots of horses being thrown out as having a chance. I think this has to do with the fact that this is not looking like a particularly classy field. In my opinion, it wasnt a particlarly good Sun Alliance CHase last year but with that said, Lord Windemere could easily win this off 11, 7. So I dont expect to see a gold cup horse here.
Im with Hadrians approach or highland lodge. Been out this year, shaped well, nice weight. Probably side with the latter as it jumps better.
SHL
Still quite sweet on Lord Windermere and am tempted by Hadrians Approach, however i can’t help but be apprehensive about his jumping. Seems to run consistently despite his errors, but i just wonder whether in such a hot race as this, every mistake is crucial?
And i’m still gravitating towards Imperial Commander. Sure he’s 12, but if he runs to the same standard he did in the Argento, then 20/1 with 11-7 is a steal?
Still quite sweet on Lord Windermere and am tempted by Hadrians Approach, however i can’t help but be apprehensive about his jumping. Seems to run consistently despite his errors, but i just wonder whether in such a hot race as this, every mistake is crucial?
And i’m still gravitating towards Imperial Commander. Sure he’s 12, but if he runs to the same standard he did in the Argento, then 20/1 with 11-7 is a steal?
Valid points Peter, I mentioned when I initially put forward Hadrian’s Approach that his jumping cost him dearly in the RSA where Lord Windermere won. As I said, I’m hoping that Nicky Henderson has ironed out the problems, or used the considerable talents of Yogi Breisner. If his jumping has improved, I think he has a very real chance of taking this.
His record reads 1/1F/1F2235-2. This looks a bit of a mixed bag, but it could have been five wins on the trot (falling when travelling well and in contention) followed by a good second to Dynaste, which is no disgrace. Then failed by a shd to peg back Unioniste at Newbury when bumped in the final strides over 3m over this course and will have no problem with the further 2f, in fact it’s to his benefit.
His next race, the RSA I’ve mentioned and his last run before the break, the Bet 365 Gold Cup (the Whitbread) he was right there till tiring 2 out over 3m 5 1/2f. On his return, over a distance too short for him, 2m 4f, he rallied from the last and was beaten a nse (just denied).His record, with a touch more luck (and tidier jumping admittedly) would read quite impressive. I know it’s a bit like saying if your auntie had cajones she’d be your uncle, but I think this could be a much better horse this year, and at the odds on offer I am happy to take a chance with him.
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