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I hope I am wrong. I’d love it if he ran, not without a chance if he did, and difficult to think of a more popular winner should he land it.
He’s venturing into "most popular horse in training" territory.
I hope I am wrong. I’d love it if he ran, not without a chance if he did, and difficult to think of a more popular winner should he land it.
He’s venturing into "most popular horse in training" territory.
Can’t disagree with any of that VTC, such a loveable old rogue. Definitely want him in this though, would sleep much sounder knowing
Imperial Commander
was going off 10st 8lbs than whatever his defection would raise him to.
I’m not necessarily saying I’m going to back him but how on earth has INVICUS been dropped 5lbs on official rating from his last run when he beat Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti getting only 3 lbs off both?
Surely that merits a 5 lb increase not a 5 lb reduction in OR?
OK He’s been off the course for a while and anyone backing him has to take that into consideration but surely he’s been let in very lightly on Saturday?
Invictus does stand out a mile. The current 7/1 might look short now but there is potential for it to shorten further. You do need luck in running though – King’s runners pretty much all go round the inner – but my biggest concern would be the form of the man on top. Get ready for the ‘riding as well as ever’ cliché if he does win.
Of the others Merry King should run a solid race without having the class to win.
I would have thought the race would be perfect for Boston Bob. In his absence I’ve had a horse whose form ties in closely with him in mind for some time –
Lord Windermere
. Looking back on the RSA (tough viewing as a backer of both Lyreen Legend and Boston Bob), Lord Windermere ran out a good winner even though he nearly came down three furlongs from home when slipping. Davy Russel had to get him balanced again and pulled him wide around horses and he still came to the last travelling best of all. That’s the furthest he’s raced over and it’s the best he’s looked, so it’s not unreasonable to think he may improve further over the Hennessy trip. I don’t think he’s as good as Bobs Worth, who did the RSA Hennessy double last season, but he probably won’t need to be to win on Saturday. I don’t think there’s a Tidal Bay or First Lieutenant in the field and I’d say connections will be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close. Invictus could be thrown in on literal form with Bobs Worth but people forget Alfie Spinner wasn’t too far away that day and he hasn’t exactly lit the world up since. I like Rocky Creek but a number of Nicholls’ are needing the run and I don’t know if he’s good enough to beat Lord Windermere anyway in receipt of just 3 lbs. Lord Windermere looks the class horse of the race and at 12/1 will do for me. It looks like he’ll run now too with Robbie McNamara booked for a rare ride against the professionals, and with Cape Tribulation also looking a likely runner then Lord Windermere’s weight should not rise any further than 11-08.
The RSA horses looked like a very poor crop last year. You need to be up to Trabolgan, Denman or Bobs Worth standard to jump from RSA success to Hennessy glory. Lord Windermere and co are about 15lbs short of that IMO.
I think Invictus is another who is being overrated. Alan King is not the best at bringing horses back from injury and this horse was obviously flattered to beat an undercooked Bobs Worth in the Reynoldstown anyway. Could be well-handicapped but the price is an insult.
I haven’t gone through them all yet, but Rocky Creek is my pick of the horses named on the thread so far. It sounds as though this is a long-term plan. Our Father looks like another ‘plot’ horse, for all he is not quite as reliable.
The RSA horses looked like a very poor crop last year. You need to be up to Trabolgan, Denman or Bobs Worth standard to jump from RSA success to Hennessy glory. Lord Windermere and co are about 15lbs short of that IMO.
I think Invictus is another who is being overrated. Alan King is not the best at bringing horses back from injury and this horse was obviously flattered to beat an undercooked Bobs Worth in the Reynoldstown anyway. Could be well-handicapped but the price is an insult.
I haven’t gone through them all yet, but Rocky Creek is my pick of the horses named on the thread so far. It sounds as though this is a long-term plan. Our Father looks like another ‘plot’ horse, for all he is not quite as reliable.
Struggling to see the logic that Invictus’s price at 7/1 is an insult but Rocky Creek giving 6lbs and the winner of a far weaker Reynoldstown is a more attractive proposition at one point bigger?
You do not need to be a genius to see Invictus is by far the best handicapped horse in the race and bookmakers are only relecting that fact in the market. Given luck in running if Invictus produces his old form he is very much the one to beat and as he is still a relatively young, lightly raced horse, there must be a strong possibility that he can actually improve on his previous form.
I think the ground will be riding a bit faster than usual on Sat so the likes of Our Father, Katenko and Hadrian’s Approach may not be suited although Katenko was one of my horses to follow this season. You need a certain type of horse to win this and I think it pays to be handy, Same Difference fits the bill as he is often up with the pace, stays and jumps well. Obviously needed the run at Ascot but should be more competitive and looks progressive. I’m not sure if IC has had his day now but is undoubtedly well handicapped. STD has two very good horses to choose from! It will be tough to win this after a layoff so will be swerving Invictus, Rocky Creek needed a run last year and the year before and I see him more of a spring horse. At bigger odds I like Prince De Beauchene as he stays well although all roads lead to Aintree. I think I’ll wait until the day to bet but Same Difference for me at the moment.
The RSA horses looked like a very poor crop last year. You need to be up to Trabolgan, Denman or Bobs Worth standard to jump from RSA success to Hennessy glory. Lord Windermere and co are about 15lbs short of that IMO.
I think Invictus is another who is being overrated. Alan King is not the best at bringing horses back from injury and this horse was obviously flattered to beat an undercooked Bobs Worth in the Reynoldstown anyway. Could be well-handicapped but the price is an insult.
I haven’t gone through them all yet, but Rocky Creek is my pick of the horses named on the thread so far. It sounds as though this is a long-term plan. Our Father looks like another ‘plot’ horse, for all he is not quite as reliable.
An interesting few quotes from SL:
"I think he’s got a great chance, I really fancy him. I always hoped he would turn into a RSA horse and he did us proud at Cheltenham. Robbie McNamara schooled him on Monday and said he is twice the horse he was last year." Jim Culloty on Lord Windermere
"Rocky Creek did well last season. I’ve given him a couple of racecourse gallops and he’s done plenty of schooling, I couldn’t get him any fitter. He’s an out and out stayer, but whether he’s a Gold Cup horse is a different matter." Paul Nicholls on Rocky Creek
"Our Father is very good first time out, but for some reason his form tails off after that. He’s in very good form, the track and distance will be absolutely fine, but he’s probably a shorter price than he should be," David Pipe on Our Father
In what looks like a not too classic Hennessy this year, I very much like the look of Hadrians Approach. He has some pretty decent form on last years runnings, most notably when a decent second to Dynaste in the Feltham at Kempton on boxing day. He was well beaten, which is no disgrace, but ran on well clear of the rest.
He was really unlucky next up at Newbury in Feb, just not getting his nose in front of Unioniste after getting bumped right at the finish. He made too many mistakes in the RSA to deserve any better than third to Lord Windermere.
His last race was in the Bet365 Gold Cup Chase, or the Whitbread to us old foggies, where he ran a decent race until tiring two out. That was over 3m 5f on good ground, so I’m not over worried if the going is good (g/s at present but no rain forecast)
He came back out earlier this month and ran a very promising race at Newbury, just failing to peg back Bury Parade, giving him 4lbs.
He runs off the same mark, 146, which means he meets Lord Windermere again, off 8lbs less which gives him a great chance of reversing the form against that one.
If Henderson has managed to iron out his occasional blunder, I think he has a very strong claim here. Best priced 11/1, 10/1 is generally available, as low as 8/1 in some places. I’ve had a decent bet on this as I don’t think Invictus is as good as he’s being painted and I doubt he is going to be spot on after a 2year lay off…he’s not for me, and I can’t find anything in the race that gives me anywhere near the same feel. I might sound I’m going a bit over the top, but I really fancy this ones chances.
Highland Lodge for me.
I think because of the poor runs whilst the stable was out of form last season, he’s well ahead of the handicapper.
Good form, bred to be better, usually improves from his seasonal debut, definitely at least one big race in him this season i reckon.
Fehilly would be great but there are other options for him. Elsworth would be fineLatter point also applies to Loch Ba but i hope Channon’s eyeing the Welsh National with him
The RSA horses looked like a very poor crop last year. You need to be up to Trabolgan, Denman or Bobs Worth standard to jump from RSA success to Hennessy glory. Lord Windermere and co are about 15lbs short of that IMO.
I think Invictus is another who is being overrated. Alan King is not the best at bringing horses back from injury and this horse was obviously flattered to beat an undercooked Bobs Worth in the Reynoldstown anyway. Could be well-handicapped but the price is an insult.
I haven’t gone through them all yet, but Rocky Creek is my pick of the horses named on the thread so far. It sounds as though this is a long-term plan. Our Father looks like another ‘plot’ horse, for all he is not quite as reliable.
I don’t think you’ll need to be up to the standard of Bobs Worth or Denman to win this particular Hennessy though TYF. Doesn’t look near as strong as last years’ renewal, on paper at any rate, and Lord Windermere won’t need to be a Gold Cup winner in waiting to take this prize in my opinion.
Do you think Rocky Creek is up to the standard of the three horses you mention?
He’s my number two for this but I don’t think he’ll be good enough to beat Lord Windermere in receipt of just 3 lbs.
I’m backing Highland Lodge and Theatre Guide.
HL would be single figures in the betting here, I think, were it not for Invictus being so highly touted. It’s not so much the layoff the King horse has had that deters me, it’s his lack of experience in a field this size in a top notch handicap.
The last 4 races he contested had a total of 25 runners, and he might well be saying to himself after the first three fences, "Hey, this isn’t how I remember things!"
Theatre Guide is 33s, but I think his chance is a fair bit better than that. He had some decent form this time last year (beat Hinterland then 3rd to Dynaste) before a hat-trick of non-completes. The yard’s hit form now and he’s capable of winning a decent race if he can avoid blunders.
Having said all that, the Hennessy is one of the races I frequently hit the crossbar in. My record of finding the winner is poor!
I’m backing Highland Lodge and Theatre Guide.
HL would be single figures in the betting here, I think, were it not for Invictus being so highly touted. It’s not so much the layoff the King horse has had that deters me, it’s his lack of experience in a field this size in a top notch handicap.
The last 4 races he contested had a total of 25 runners, and he might well be saying to himself after the first three fences, "Hey, this isn’t how I remember things!"
As far as I could see Theatre Guide’s experience of a big field was an abismal performance at the Cheltenham Festival. Presumably on that basis he will be thinking ‘I love this’ after three fences? Highland Lodge ran in a successions of small fields prior to his last two runs. I thought he had a very hard race against Standing Ovation and that is probably why he isn’t any shorter.
Most first season novices will not see a large field unless they take in one or more of the Festivals and unfortunately Invictus didn’t make the RSA. The market support prior to his defection would seem to indicate that plenty of people didn’t think that Reynoldstown win was a flash in the pan. Yes, he might fall at the first but then again so might an old handicapper with masses of big field form. That is the nature of the game.
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