July 24, 2011 at 20:42 #19253nighthorseParticipant
- Total Posts 385
Sounds crazy I know, but anyone who has actually ridden horses will know that, almost as soon as you sit on any horse, you know if you are gonna be friends. Whether this horse is "tuned in" to you and happy to try understanding what you want from him or her. (possibly this works even better with mares cos they are more affected by who is giving the orders than geldings, who can be a bit thick, lovely as they are).
I am talking NH here of course, cos I think that flat horses are not really generally around long enough, or mature enough, to establish a rapport with anyone.
And sometimes it is so obvious when you look at the form, that a certain jockey has (or HAS NOT) an affinity with a certain horse, and that the horse will try just a little bit harder for him/her. Or, equally obvious from results, that this understanding does not exist for this pairing.
I do not bet big bucks, but quite often get long-priced winners from this theory, along with distance/ground/course factors as well of course. I usually make more than I lose. Not much, but it keeps me happy!
I don’t get big money wins, cos I don’t bet big money, But I have enormous fun! I get as big a kick from a picking a 33-1 or even 50-1 second or third (and sometimes a winner!) as I imagine some punters get from backing very a short-priced winner, if not more!!August 2, 2011 at 10:00 #366881
Not quite as crazy as it sounds
, I think your theory applies not only to horse but all animals including people as well.
Let’s just take a look at what you are saying: –
Look at the previous race history where it has been ridden by different "jock’s" but only won with one specific rider.
Then check if the win was over the same distance as the current race, course and going.
It sounds all very logical to me.
Billy's Outback ShackAugust 2, 2011 at 10:24 #366884
Not quite as simple and straight forward as I first thought.
Although there is not any NH racing today I ran through the FLAT cards looking for previous CD winners and checking their history. A few "family pets" have much about the same rider all of the time but there are others which have won with more than one rider.
Do tell me
are you looking for established riders and NOT recent winners when a claimer has been put up and maybe part of trainers winning tactics?
Billy's Outback ShackAugust 20, 2011 at 11:56 #368705nighthorseParticipant
- Total Posts 385
I always go the ATR site to look at form cos you can check things back years and there is so much detail. For example, a horse may have been pulled up last time out and on there you can discover it was due to a slipping saddle or something similar, and nothing to fault the horse on.
The number of times I notice that one particular jockey seems to get a better run from a certain horse, even if he/she has not ridden it that often. Conversely it stands out a mile that a horse never runs well with a certain jockey up, and if they have put him up again (god only knows why they do that! )it probably doesn’t stand much of a chance.
The thing I often think about putting young claimers up is that it’s quite possible that this young unknown could be the horse’s lad, who rides him every day and has developed a rapport.
Rapport is the key. There are some horses, one very famous one I believe, who don’t run well for Tony McCoy. He may be the champ, and able to get that bit more out of many horses, but if it decides it’s not happy with him he’s stuffed!
My "system" will never make my fortune. I bet very small, always each-way, and never on anything less than 5/1, but I break even most of the time and have a lot of fun along the way. It’s great to see your 50/1 with 10p e/w on it romp home in front of the favourite!August 21, 2011 at 09:27 #368798
, thanks for your reply.
I always enjoy reading how others go about their betting and think it opens your own mind to other possibilities and it matters "not a jot" about the stakes be they 10p or £100 it all comes down to your own idea of fun.
Billy's Outback Shack
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