The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

The device used to steer Baaeed’s OR to 128

Home Forums Horse Racing The device used to steer Baaeed’s OR to 128

Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1603542
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    Baaeed up to OR 128, Real World on 123.

    Inspiral on 121 now.

    Hands up who thinks Real World gives Inspiral weight for age, weight for gender, and beats her?

    Because I don’t.

    I agree with 121 for the filly, but 5yo Real World suddenly 5lb better?

    I should co-co.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603568
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29590

    Personally, I suspect Real World ran to his form with Baaeed below his very best is the most probable. But that does leave all the other runners a long way below their bests.

    However, as I said in the Queen Anne thread: With so far back (4 lengths from 2nd to 3rd): You don’t need to believe Order Of Australia ran to form to think Real World improved for a career best.

    That said, it may be the handicapper has just realised his Lockinge error. Used the Queeen Anne as an excuse. Realising Baaeed’s Lockinge was worth more than he gave at the time. 125 for Baaeed was shockingly low… But now he’s got just 5 lbs between Baaeed and Real World… Nah!

    Surely 123 Real World and 121 Inspiral means the handicapper himself does not believe Real World will beat Inspiral with weight for age and gender?

    Value Is Everything
    #1603571
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    Weight for age is already built into the figures, but good point, you’re right about the weight for gender – he’d expect Inspiral to have a 1lb edge getting 3lb.

    I need to have a word with myself there!

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603577
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29590

    Behind Inspiral it’s probably no more than an average Coronation Stakes.

    Inspiral is more than likely to continue her improvement next time out. If Inspiral and Real World met next time out then I expect even the official handicapper believes Inspiral will beat Real World by more than a pound.

    Value Is Everything
    #1603578
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29590

    btw Timeform leave Baaeed and Real World unchanged, 134 and 125 respectively.

    Inspiral has gone up to 125p (could say 128p after adding the 3 lb allowance)

    Value Is Everything
    #1603589
    LD73
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1722

    Would be interesting to hear the rationale behind the changes – Real World beaten further in the Lockinge than he was in the QA in which Order of Australia was having his first run since October, so I very much doubt that he has run even remotely close to his full rating bearing in mind he was beaten only 1.25L by Baaeed in last year’s Moulin.

    I would honestly take Inspiral to quite comforatably beat Real World every day of the week and twice on a Sunday as I believe there is a lot of improvement to come from her whereas outside of his runs against Baaeed Real World’s form isn’t that great. His Meydan G2 win was against horses that have since gone on to run a further 28 times and won just three races (a Newcastle handicap, a Swedish G3 and a Meydan G1, although Sir Busker was also in that race and was 4th beaten 2.75L with Lord Glitters 6th beaten 5L.

    Not sure that all the collateral form warrants Baaeed going up to 128 and Real World up to 123 – there is an argument that they should have remained on their marks following the Lockinge.

    #1603603
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29590

    Order Of Australia didn’t run to form, but the gap between him and Real World (4 lengths) means it is still possible to rate Real World as improving. Not that Order of Australia should be rated on the Moulin second to Baaeed. Latter has improved quite a bit since. Instead rate OOA’s best on the Moulin third, ie rated as being a short neck better than Victor Ludorum. Or the QEII 2 lengths worse than Palace Pier.

    Think you are running Real World down, LD. His beating of The Revernant in the French Group 2 can be rated as the equal of his runs against Baaeed… And in any race there is usuall only two or three to show their form. In the Meydan turf Group 2 Real World gave 4 lbs and a 2 1/2 lengths beating to Alfareeq, who next time out won a Meydan Group 1 by 1 1/2. The third has run once since, 4 3/4 lengths 6th off a massive weight in the Victoria Cup, making a lot of ground up late over an inadequate trip.

    Take Real World’s runs on unsuitable dirt / AW out and the only horse to have beaten him is Baaeed.

    Value Is Everything
    #1603607
    LD73
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1722

    On first reading the form of beating The Revenant on very soft ground looks good but it was a G2, the 3rd Novemba (beaten under 2L) has since been beaten further in a German G2 (5L) and by Saffron Beach (4L) in the G2 Duke of Cambridge last week at Royal Ascot – the 4th in that Revenant race was the admirable Century Dream who was also a solid G2 performer who was also always found wanting in G1s.

    Take Baaeed out of the Lockinge and QA and we would all be grumbling about them both being an average renewal at best. I just don’t see RW being good enough to win a top G1 race at either 8 or 10F (he does have Eclipse, Juddmonte & Irish Champion St entries) but that division could see him swimming in even deeper waters.

    For me he is a rock solid G2 horse that will always find one or two too good for him at G1 level and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that but he will most likely need to travel further afield into Europe to find a weaker G1 contest that he can boss or alternatively scoop up the various G2 races available.

    #1603622
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    I can see the case among the third, fourth and fifth for this ratings hike – I’m just not convinced.

    But it’s a game of opinions and I do have a lot of respect for Dominic Gardiner-Hill who always seems very measured in his reaction to performances to me.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603783
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 423

    I reckon its about protecting the status of the Queen Anne as one of the better mile G1’s in the calendar globally, lets face it the race has been battered down the years, particularly in recent years – Palace Pier didn’t need to be near his best to win, Lord Glitters/Accidental Agent/Circus Maximus were grand horses but they weren’t top notch milers. If they admit Baaeed didn’t need to be near his best that makes 5 years of pretty sub-standard renewals for a G1 at such a big meeting. If you believe the ratings the Racing Post hand out which I don’t personally Baaeed was the best winner in the last 10 years by 5lbs upwards. That looks very fanciful to me given what he beat. Its a meaningless number in many ways unless you fancy him to do a Trueshan and be supplemented into the Johns Smiths Cup carrying 11 stone

    #1603792
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29590

    Neither the official handicapper nor the Racing Post have any interest in “protecting the status of the Queen Anne”, TTM. If he / they were to do what you say then wouldn’t it make more sense to inflate the ratings of “Lord Glitters/Accidental Agent/Circus Maximus” etc? It is in the handicapper and Racing Post’s best interests to get the rating right.

    You’re on a dangerous path if calling races “substandard renewals” just because the winner didn’t need to be at his / her best. Baaeed and to a degree Palace Pier did not need to run to their bests because they were / are so good. Otherwise you could say Frankel himself didn’t have to win by 11 lengths – could’ve won by just 1 3/4 like Baaeed – to beat (considering Excelebration was below his best) a “substandard renewal”. Real World’s performance (whether we believe the handicapper or not) was good enough to win many of those Queen Annes you mention, so this year’s race was hardly substandard.

    Many Group 1s are won by horses not needing to be at their bests, because the very top class group 1 horses have so much in hand, that’s the nature of top class sport.

    Value Is Everything
Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.