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Steve. I see what you’re saying about collateral form. Its a tool, nothing more. Its my preferred method, but you can suffer from selective vision using it and distance changes only muddy the waters as you point out.
However, using that method, everywhere you look, you see that Sir Percy has upheld whatever line you wish to scrutinise. That’s good form.
And I like to see winners come from races. It clears the class illusion. Lahan’s 1000gns is the best example of a class illusion I can think of. I’m not sure anything ever won again from that race, (I also wonder whether Speciosa’s Guineas will prove similar).
The stamina, as I say, is a guess. I was skeptical myself up till a week ago, but there are too many family influences and the stable are hopeful.
Straw clutching I know. In my heart of hearts, I still think the Eclipse and the Champion Stakes are the ones for Sir Percy, but I am starting to get more confident about Saturday.
As for the French challenge, the RP have Sir Percy 5lbs clear of Visindar, (134/129). Thats the only measure I can go on, being unfamiliar.
Surprisingly, Sinndar has a produce stamina index of 9.7f. I was gobsmacked when I read that. And there are plenty of siblings at 8-10f in the pedigree.
So, it is safe to argue that the same issues affecting Sir Percy’s stamina could be applied to the visually impressive French challenger. I would prefer to be on Lindas Lad and I might save. He’ll stay and has a hungry jockey on board. Much better price too. But is it fast enough?
Did you ever see Sir Percy’s maiden? An electrifying turn of foot. You need that in a Derby.
As for the Irish challenge, I would back Sir Percy against Horatio Nelson every time. (I do hope both horses remain sound; this is a fascinating subplot to the season). I keep watching the Dewhurst and Tregoning’s colt kept finding more. I know many here disagree with me. ;)
Septimius? I dunno. You can put a line through the York form imo. Ground and weather more suited to ducks than flat bred throughbreds. Not really sure on this one. But KF has chosed Horatio which seems to rule this one out anyway.
So, yes. I am confident there isn’t an English trained colt that can beat Sir Percy. And I think he can beat Visindar, Horatio Nelson and Septimius.
Steve, do you go along with the prevailing notion that this is a sub-standard Derby?
Johnj
Ok High Chapperel was a high class winner, but the twists and turns of Epsom and the usual frantic pace require contenders to travel well. If you dont believe me ask jamie Spencer! Made the point in the independent last week
I think Spetimus will not have the class to overcome that and thats partly backed up by what would appear to be Kf’s decision today
Max… i agree with you about the dewhurst. :) And you will be pleased to know, Timeform did too ( i think…)
Hi Max
So, it is safe to argue that the same issues affecting Sir Percy’s stamina could be applied to the visually impressive French challenger.
For me, Visindar is practically a guaranteed stayer. Physically, he just looks like a 12f horse and moves like one too.
I would back Sir Percy against Horatio Nelson every time.
Right now, I wouldn’t back HN in any race (because of the negative comments about him at HQ). I’m not convinced he’s trained on and I’m unconvinced that he’ll get 12f.
I know this is a bit of a lazy comparison, but when I think of HN, I think of Oratorio.
It wouldn’t surprise me if this Grand Criterium winner (like Oratorio) who wasn’t fit for the Guineas (like Oratorio) will (like Oratorio) not stay the Derby trip and, if he’s to win this year, I think it’ll be (like Oratorio) at 10f later in the year.
KF has chosed Horatio which seems to rule this one out anyway
He wouldn’t be the first jock to pick the wrong one (Kinane picking Hawk Wing in the Derby, for example). So, I don’t think it "rules out" Septimus. Though obviously, it’s negative feedback.
And, of course, I’d have been happier to see KF choose Septimus.
Steve, do you go along with the prevailing notion that this is a sub-standard Derby?
That’s a really hard question to answer.
To answer it, we’d have to have some benchmark for an "average Derby".
For me, the race has been disappointing over the last few years.
We’ve had years where there was one outstanding horse in the race and the rest were either below the top level or non-stayers. I’d include 2002 and 2005 in this.
And there have been years when the winner wasn’t a really good 12f horse (2003 and 2004).
Right now, I think there are a couple of horses that could be outstanding 12f horses (Visindar & Septimus).
But I wonder if they’re going to be suited to Epsom.
There is a horse that I think could turn out to be proper g1 horses at 10f (HN).
And there’s another (SP), who could turn out to be excellent at 10 or 12, but IMO it’s too early to say how good he’ll be and what his correct distance will be.
Let’s imagine that Visindar wins comfortably from Septimus who stayed on at one-pace to pass the non-staying SP and HN (3rd/4th).<br> <br>What will that say about the quality of the Derby?
Even if SP won the Eclipse and HN the Irish champion, would that add to the quality of the Derby?
Or would it be irrelevant because these 2 horses didn’t get home at Epsom and we’re nothing like the horses that later won over 10f?
I’d say it was irrelevant for this very reason.
And this, for me, is the problem with the Derby: most of the decent horses in the race don’t stay and, in hindsight, it’s always easy to see that there were only one or two challengers.
So, I’ve not got a one word answer to this question.
I think it’s more open than last year’s where I thought it was Movitator v Motivator (i.e. his temperament was his biggest danger).
So, from that perspective, I think we’ve probably got a more open race and, in Visindar in particular, there’s a horse in the race that could go on and pick up a big all-age race.
Steve
Quote: from EC on 1:43 pm on May 30, 2006[br];)
Surprisingly, Sinndar has a produce stamina index of 9.7f. I was gobsmacked when I read that. And there are plenty of siblings at 8-10f in the pedigree.
Ignoring 2yo’s, which is the best policy when calculating the average winning distance …Sinndar’s progeny AWD for 3yo’s is 11.7f..no shortage of stamina there.<br>
Need to bear in mind that Sinndar is still a young stallion.  His 2003 crop have not yet had many chances to run at more than 10f, so those figures include only one crop that has had the opportunity to compete over middle distances.  It is always best to wait until a stallion has had two full seasons with classic age runners before trusting that stamina index figure.
In addition,  the stamina index figure for sires of middle-distance and staying types can often appear low, due to fewer flat opportunities at more than 12 furlongs to push up the average.  Rainbow Quest, for example, has a stamina index figure of 11.1f, initially suggesting his progeny might struggle over extended distances.  His two St Leger, two Prix Royal Oak and one Prix du Cadran winners prove otherwise, and this is the case for most of these stallions.  A index figure of 11f+ in reality suggests a good source of stamina and very few will have a figure of more than 12f.
<br>With regard to Horatio Nelson, if you look at all his races<br>as a 2 year old (and I know most of us think he should have won the Dewhurst but he didn’t),none of the horses that have come behind him in those races have achieved much as 3 year olds in the top races so far.<br>Taking this into account and his 8th in the Guineas should he really be 2nd favourite for the Derby at a best price 5/1?
I see that Ladbrokes who I’m often told know whats what at Ballydoyle, have Horatio Nelson at 5/1 a higher price than most of the others on Oddscheckers, they must be quite happy to take money on him.
Rightly or wrongly, the recent plunge on Horatio has bolstered my impression that he is a monster.
I thought his finish against Sir Percy, after being baulked, had to be seen to be believed, particularly in view of the time returned. And it didn’t seem to me that Sir Percy was idling in front or "always holding" him. I thought he was catching him.
His times have always been quicker than any of the others, bar Sir Percy in that race, though Visindar has always won easily.
More egg on face, I suppose, but them’s my thoughts.
Also, I don’t think for one moment that Nelson was expected in the 2000 gns. Aidan virtually said as much beforehand, and that he was very pleased with his run after it.
Quote: from EC on 3:42 pm on May 30, 2006[br]<br>I was quoting another post Sal in the quote you have put up..I was disputing the 9.7 figure.<br>
Sorry EC, I knew that, but couldn’t get it to look right on the quote.  Trying to quote both you and whoever you quoted didn’t work!
Further to our discussion on the other thread, the ‘offset’ of the damsire isn’t always that straightforward.  One usually strong stamina influence can be lessened by a more prepotent influence – Sadler’s Wells-Habitat springs to mind.  Mr P is usually the dominant stallion in a sire-damsire cross, which is a worry for Visindar. ÂÂÂ
Senor Dali paid his Goodwood conqueror Championship Point a nice compliment by hacking up in a hot looking maiden at Sandown tonight…
Just as an addendum, the 9.7 stamina index figure is from the Racing Post. (not something I made up myself LOL). But Ill take note of whats been said here.
Steve, I’m at a big disadvantage here because I have yet to see Visindar run, (for one reason and another), so I’m betting against him blind.
I’m confident – and this game is all about opinion – that SP can hold off the Ballydoyle challenge. But I’m not sure about the French animal at all.
We’ll never know until afterwards how good a race is. The 1971 and 1984 Guineas spring to mind or, more obscurely, the 2003 Wood Ditton.
When the question comes up about the class of a race, the season review stage, after the Arc, is the only time a race can be truly assessed.
Imo, the last Derby which could truly be called strong was Sinndar’s, (ironically, the sire of this year’s buzzer). Last years – sadly, as I was well excited about Motivator – turned out to be poor with few subsequent winners.
With the winners of the key Irish trials, the Dewhurst, Vintage, Chester Vase, Dante, Predominate, Fielden and the Lingfield Derby trial, to name but a few in attendance, and a high percentage of winning horses contesting, my bet is that years Derby will be better than people think.
And I think there’ll be a couple of all-age winners in this line up in the coming season.;)
When the question comes up about the class of a race, the season review stage, after the Arc, is the only time a race can be truly assessed.
I’d agree 100%.
That’s when we’ll have seen the Derby horses against the best in Europe (3yo’s plus all-age).
And we’ll know if any of them are going to the Breeder’s Cup with meaningful chances.
For example, North Light was firmly put in his place at the Arc (though I’d suggest maybe the Niel).
Motivator came back and ran a decent race last year, but was shown to be behind Hurricane Run and Bago.
And I think there’ll be a couple of all-age winners in this line up in the coming season.
I hope so.
(I’m presuming you mean group 1 flat winners, not class 4 novice hurdles!)
We got a couple last year (Dubawi & Oratorio), but it wasn’t the winner and it wasn’t over 12f.
I’d like to see a Derby winner that goes on to with the King George or the Arc (I’d even settle for the Eclipse or Irish Champion).
Steve
Latest news is Fallon rides Horatio Nelson and Olympic Odyssey opts for the French Derby as connections reckon he won’t get the trip at Epsom
And Robert Winston’s on Papal Bull.
This would suggest Murtagh and Kinane (plus another if they run 4) are going to ride for O’Brien.
Steve
I’d really like to see Sir Percy win. His owners refused big money offers for him over the winter and it would be great if he could go and win the Derby for them. Unfortunately, after reading many comments on this thread about his stamina doubts, it’s sort of put me off his chances of winning the race. I’ll be cheering him on anyway on Saturday.
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