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Kauto Star has an extra two and a half furlongs to get as well with an uphill finish everyone seems to be forgetting that concentrating their thoughts instead on his jumping. The distance AND his jumping errors combined give me no confidence in his chances at all I can’t see him overcoming BOTH obstacles.
Quote: from davidbrady on 11:18 am on Mar. 1, 2007[br]I will be taking on anything that starts at less than 3/1.
Since 1999, 64 horses have started at the Festival at odds of 11/4 or less. They show a level stakes loss of  9.17.
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Is that too bad taking into account the bookies percentage? If you’d backed them all on Betfair you’d probably have a decent profit, if you’d laid all 64 on Betfair you’d have a bigger loss than 9.17.
Quote: from yeats on 6:45 pm on Mar. 4, 2007[br]
Quote: from davidbrady on 11:18 am on Mar. 1, 2007[br]I will be taking on anything that starts at less than 3/1.
Since 1999, 64 horses have started at the Festival at odds of 11/4 or less. They show a level stakes loss of 9.17.
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Is that too bad taking into account the bookies percentage? If you’d backed them all on Betfair you’d probably have a decent profit, if you’d laid all 64 on Betfair you’d have a bigger loss than 9.17.
I don’t think the BF advantage on horses that short would be sufficient to turn that sort of a loss into a profit, let alone a decent one! Using Adrian Massey’s BF price estimator, the loss is now only 6.03 pts.
Looks like BJK is out…..
Inglis Drever is new favourite on BF with BJK available @ 3.5 to be placed.
(Edited by PAULCS at 10:04 pm on Mar. 4, 2007)
I’ll be backing fair along.
Solid form over hurdles, proven on the track and ground. Fast accurate jumper.
Has a lot going for him and seems just the type to lead all the way at a nice pace forcing jumping errors from his rivals.
One to take on for me is kauto star. Amazing horse on his day but cheltenham is less forgiving than kempton and his jumping has to raise concerns at such a short price.
Snap up all the 5/2 for fair along!
How about:
Aran Concerto<br>Denman<br>Black Jack Ketchum<br>Kauto Star
Couldn’t have any of them winning and have laid multiples on betfair accordingly!
:cool:
Amaretto rose?
On what basis?
If im laying a horse, i like to have some chink in the armour to go after. Not sure what this one has doen wrong…
No chink Clivex but I dont think she has beaten anything decent enough to justify the price. That said, while I expect her to get turned over, I dont lay horses since Im dreadful at that art form.
SHL
I don’t lay horses but I feel that WELL CHIEF is incredibly short. With the bounce factor, the fact that he beat average horses, and the quality of the opposition (Newmill is a worthy champion and VPU will be a danger if his jumping has not suffered). I take him to get beaten.
I’ve actually chanced my mind about Well Chief. I wanted to oppose him, but don’t think I can anymore. If you watch Newmills win last year look at the horses that filled the places. What has Fota Island done since? Where was the favourite……. it fell. Moscow Flyer was past it, Mister McGoldrick aint no world-beater. And when connections of Newmill were suggesting they may go for the Champion Chase that wouldn’t do your confidence in it much good.
Nickname has to prove it can do it at Cheltenham IF it turns up while Voy Por Ustedes has not yet put in a performance to suggest it can beat Well chief.
So Well Chief is beginning to look like a banker to me.
I personally doubt denman. He is a great galloper but to me he seems to have one pace. I am looking forward to seeing Dom Dorgeval and Cailin Alainn head to head with him. I think he would find it hard. As nicholls himself says he is hard to get ready and in his races i feel he does the minimum asked of him.
I fancy Nickname, but he’ll have to be pretty special, imo, as Well Chief seems likely to be even better than Moscow Flyer, who only beat him 2 length, and not without some effort? And Well Chief was only a six-year old, so looked likely to impove.
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