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After Frankel’s first run I had a look for prices for the 2000 Guineas but he wasn’t in the betting. However, he was the only horse quoted, at 25/1, for the Epsom Derby at the time. I assumed, with a Royal Lodge entry and the Derby quote, that he was going to turn out to be a Mile and a Half horse in time and I left it at that. As time went on the prices became too short and I didn’t have a bean on him ante post for the Guineas. He had way more speed than the average winner of a Royal Lodge on soft ground and I expected that he would get a mile and a quarter when he settled better. Nathaniel isn’t in the same league, beaten twice by the Ladies and scrambled home from Farhh when he won the Eclipse. He’s overrated in my opinion and I think taking on Frankel with him will be like asking a St Bernard to race against a Greyhound.
"One Trap 1, there’s only one Trap 1, one Trap 1, there’s only one Trap 1"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He won on soft in his very soft race doesn’t bother him one bit.
The french horse, tough and consistent as he is, is not remotely in the same league as frankel.
True, Cirrus is not in the same league as Frankel EGS, but he’s still the equal second best horse in the northern hemisphere. Better than anything that ran in the Arc.
If you work for Timeform he is but that doesn’t make it so.
Based mainly on his Champion Stakes win but had Snow fairy got a clear run he wouldn’t have beaten her that day IMO and Danedream has achieved much more than he ever has. Nathaniel ran but he’s not the bay he was before and if he turns up at Ascot I reckon he’ll finish in front Cirrus Des Aigles.
In my very humble opinion if he met Orferve the Japanese horse would eat him for breakfast. Travels as well as him and would murder him for toe.
DELETED this paragrapgh GELDINGS CANT RUN IN THE ARC FORGOT
Europe is in bad shape if he’s the best we have bar Frankel he’s had more 2nd prizes that Mike Tyson
"Second prizes"! He’s won First prizes all over the place!
I backed Snow Fairy in last year’s Champion and even I don’t believe she would’ve beaten Cirrus that day.
Orfevre may still be improving, so if Cirrus and Orfevre met it would be a toss up between them. Nathaniel only just beat Farhh and look how far Frankel beat him.
If Cirrus runs Frankel will be up against a better horse than at York. Yes, Frankel acts on soft ground, but will he stay the trip in testing conditions? The answer is probably, but it is not a foregone conclusion.
Value Is EverythingI think you have to look closer at Timeform and how they reach some of these ratings. Quite frankly they leave too many important factors out for my liking
Cirrus Des Aigles best bit of form was supposedly recorded in the Eclipse when he beat So You Think………..lets just ignore the fact So You Think had just run in the Arc and was in the middle of losing 4 on the trot and was very likely over the top. Snow Fairy also had a hard race in the Arc plus she was a bit unlucky plus she was losing her 5th race on the trot when she lost in the Champion.
You want to trust form like that be my guest. Everytime this horse meets something decent he almost always loses. Byword Goldikova Sarafina and this year he’s been running in some of the weakest contest group traces in Europe and he’s number 2…..he is his a$$.
He beat St Nicholas Abbey under a length which in my book would put him behind Danedream.
The fact he’s a gelding excludes him from some of the best race so he shoots around Europe facing inferior competition and picks up some nice prizes.
He’s good horse no denying it but he’s never faced anything in the same league as Danedream or Orfevre and if he did he’d soon know the difference.
He will face Frankel and no matter what the ground like Frankel will destroy him and with nothing to lose probably further than he beat Fahhr. There is no way on this planet will soft ground stop Frankel the horse would get 14 furlongs let alone 12….the further he went at York the better he looked and he simply does not have any stamina problems whatsoever…..Such a pity Sir Henry never knew that before the King George. So
to you Cirrus Des Aigles lovers…….Hope Nathaniel runs cos he’ll be second and beat the French git 
Interesting article in the RP today about Arc v Champion – http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1008315
They also have a rather different opinion on CDA than you do HGM!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The RP article is an interesting one and you can’t deny the draw, course and ground at Longchamp do mean all the runners don’t get a fair crack of the whip.
However the fact is Danedream, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel were all entered in the Arc not the Champion. Until the race starts to attract the best in Europe and overseas ahead of the Arc then it won’t usurp it and with the prize money on offer being way behind the Arc I don’t see that happening any time soon.
Nathaniel
IS
entered in the Champion and I’d be a little surprised if Snow Fairy wasn’t before her injury. She ran in it last year… And the point of the article is the Champion
IS
now "starting to attract the best in Europe".
Value Is EverythingThe RP article is an interesting one and you can’t deny the draw, course and ground at Longchamp do mean all the runners don’t get a fair crack of the whip.
However the fact is Danedream, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel were all entered in the Arc not the Champion. Until the race starts to attract the best in Europe and overseas ahead of the Arc then it won’t usurp it and with the prize money on offer being way behind the Arc I don’t see that happening any time soon.
Danedream is a mile and a half horse, Nathaniel IS entered in the Champion as was Snow Fairy till she got injured. CDA is the second highest rated horse in Europe, Frankel is the highest rated horse in the world. Last year it attracted SYT, Snow Fairy and CDA as well as Eclipse winner Twice Over, King George winner Nathaniel and multiple G1 winner Midday. All high rated horses so not sure your point is valid.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Danedream is a mile and a half horse, Nathaniel IS entered in the Champion as was Snow Fairy till she got injured. CDA is the second highest rated horse in Europe, Frankel is the highest rated horse in the world. Last year it attracted SYT, Snow Fairy and CDA as well as Eclipse winner Twice Over, King George winner Nathaniel and multiple G1 winner Midday. All high rated horses so not sure your point is valid.
Danedream’s best trip is 12f but she has won 3 times over 11f. Perhaps I should have been clearer but entries are one thing what they run in is ano and my point is they were all going to run in the Arc until they were unable to. They may have then run in the Champion but with only a two week gap the Arc was their main target not the Champion. If geldings could run in it it is very likely CDA’s main target would have been the Arc not the Champion.
Prize money for the Arc is £3.2m and £1.8m to the winner while prize money for the Champion is £1.2m and £737k to the winner and the prestige of winning the Arc is much higher than the Champion. Basically if you have a very good horse that is top class at 10f and 12f the Arc is where you’d be far more likely go with it.
With a colt equally effective at 1m4f and 1m2f then the Champion would be worth more money in the long run; because of stallion potential.
Value Is EverythingWinning the Guines and the Derby(Galileo) will always trump the Champion Stakes for stud purposes in my opinion(which with a dollar added gets you a donut) but I wonder what Big John would say.Of course not many horses do that.Many win the Champion Stakes.
What makes you say that Ginger? I know breeders are 10 furlong crazy these days but if I had a horse that had already proven himself over both trips I know which race I’d rather have on his CV. Why would a Champion Stakes success prove more financially beneficial in the long run than an Arc win?
The Arc, currently, is undoubtedly the more prestigious race. It is not even debatable.
The Arc is the showpiece of European racing. It is annually the most consistent race in producing both quality/depth. It is revered by all Major European powers. It has a significant prize pool advantage over it’s rival alternatives. One only has to look at the roll of honour to know the significant of the Arc within European racing.
The Champion stakes cannot be judged on it’s past. It’s current format is vastly different to it’s old guise. However, we have one year worth of data. Using that data to offer a plausible argument for it being near equal to the Arc is preposterous. If you wish to make an argument of why the Champion stakes may in the future challenge the Arc for domination, that is a plausible argument to make. It is possible, if not entirely likely. However, to suggest the Champion is remotely close now ; preposterous.
Snow Fairy/Nathaniel were/are entered in the Champion, but their primary target was the Arc. This patently clear. The first, and second year of data for the newly formatted Champion stakes will exist under the reign of Frankel ; a horse hailed as the best seen in a very long time, if ever. He is running in the Champion stakes, not the Arc, but the choice made by the particular connections may not be a concensus choice. It is likely, under different connections, Frankel may have run in the Arc. Frankel cannot and should not be used asn argument for the Champion being equal given he is a statisical anamoly and furthermore, his trainer is anti-arc. He’s also largely been a miler throughout his career. He isn’t your prototypical horse. Milers do not run in Arc’s.
The other horse, Cirrus Des Aigles, can also be described as an anamoly. A 6 yr old gelding at the highest level. A rarity indeed. The option of the Arc does not exist.
The argument for the Champion being of near equality to the Arc therefore is based upon two anamolies ; one a once- in a life time freak, the other a rare case in an industry dominated by 3 and 4 yr old entires.
One must also understand, that for now, the Arc has greater international appeal. It is targetted by all European powers of racing. The French, the english, the irish, the Germans. Plus the Japanese are now regular visitors. The Champion stakes does not currently have that appeal. The French connection of Cirrus Des Aigles is unique.
There is no doubt the Champion stakes will see an icnreased influence on the industry going forward. Greater prize money, being run at Ascot, and the high ratings already achieved will do much for it’s stature. We will see how it compares to the Arc in the next 5-10 years ; a timeframe required before such assumptions made in this thread can even begin to be validated.
For now however, the Arc remains the more important race. Better depth, greater prize money and a wonderful history beats out one year of data ; data with notable anamolies or irregularities.
What makes you say that Ginger? I know breeders are 10 furlong crazy these days but if I had a horse that had already proven himself over both trips I know which race I’d rather have on his CV. Why would a Champion Stakes success prove more financially beneficial in the long run than an Arc win?
Exactly THM, breeders are speed "crazy". The Racing Post article Joni has put up is quite right; if the Ascot Champion Stakes can maintain its elevation from obscurity… It looks like rivalling the Arc as the best middle-distance race in Europe. Therefore if 10 and 12f races have the same "prestige" (and if having equally good breeding) breeders seem to (quite wrongly in my opinion) always prefer to go for the speedier animal.
May be it’s a bit different if a horse has already got a brilliant performance at 10f on record (and I mean brilliant, not just any Group 1 win) it wouldn’t matter which race connections wanted to go for; Champion or Arc.
I’ve commented before now, this breeders obsession with speed is illogical… When two of the top sires of recent years Montjeu and Galileo were both at their best at 1m4f.
Value Is EverythingI agree with pretty much everything J17 says – the Arc is easily the most prestigious race of course it is. Interesting to see what will happen over the next few years though as the appeal of the Champion is certainly increasing.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
J17,
Can you explain please why you say Frankel running in the Champion is an anomaly… Where as you believe Snow Fairy and Nathaniel having the Arc as their main targets is proof of the Arc’s bigger Prestige.Snow Fairy and Nathaniel’s main targets probably had a lot to do with Frankel’s target.
There are possible anomalies and it’s early days for the Ascot Champion, but it’s certainly encouraging. I do believe the Ascot race will prove itself as a much better race than the newmarket version.
Value Is EverythingJ17,
Can you explain please why you say Frankel running in the Champion is an anomaly… Where as you believe Snow Fairy and Nathaniel having the Arc as their main targets is proof of the Arc’s bigger Prestige.Snow Fairy and Nathaniel’s main targets probably had a lot to do with Frankel’s target.
Frankel is anamoly because he’s so good. A horse of his ability is exceptionally rare. Thus ratings of the Champion stakes this year will be false. You don’t judge a race and it’s stature relative to other races based upon one year, a year where it so happens to be that the best Miler – 10 F horse we have seen in many many years happens to be in training.
Given Frankel has never run over 12F in his career, the choice of Ascot over Longchamp does not indicate a shift in prestige.
We don’t use exceptional freak performances to judge the history and success of a race. It’s almost guranteed that this Champion stakes rating will be an anamoly.
I do not understand what you are implying with Snow Fairy and Nathaniel. I do not believe Snow Fairy and Nathaniel having the Arc as their main target is proof that the Arc is more prestigious ; one needs much more data than that. Of course, however, that data exists. I was merely pointing out the flaw in the use of Snow Fairy/Nathaniel running in thw Champion stakes as an indicator of near equality. I take it you are trying to twist my words.
There are possible anomalies and it’s early days for the Ascot Champion, but it’s certainly encouraging. I do believe the Ascot race will prove itself as a much better race than the newmarket version.
I do not dispute this. I agree completely. However, to challenge the Arc seriously year on year? We shall see, but i suspect the Arc will remain top dog.
The article is complete nonsense.
The Champions isn’t even the top meeting at Ascot and this guy is trying to say it’s some sort of threat to the most prestigious race in the world namely the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Ok the meeting moved but moving it isn’t going to change much and a quick glance at recent results we have Danedream Workforce Sea the Stars, Zarkava etc etc winning the Arc and nothing would have you jumping out of your seat like they did, that won the Champion Stakes recently.
This plonker thought Frankel and that gave him premise to write the article but it should have been given the heading
Franke V Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
because without him what has the Champion Stakes got to offer…..not a lot and it would be less than nothing had nathaniel not taken ill before the Arc.
The very fact the race is run over 10 furlongs will prevent it ever be regarded in the same league as the Arc plus the Arc is worth over a million pounds more to the winner than the Champion Stakes. So unless Ascot are going to put their hands very deep into their pockets (no Chance) nothing is going to change.
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