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Well it might not be the Arc but after watching Cirrhus Des Aigles today I think one could argue that the two best horses in Europe will be contesting it. Add in Nathaniel and Pastorius and we could have a very decent race.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Hope and expect Frankel to walk it, but Cirrus may be an each way thieve’s bet.
Value Is EverythingIf Nathaniel runs the three highest rated horses in the world will be in the field. Having said that the Arc winner will probably parachute into 2nd or 3rd spot.
I think 10F is now becoming the favoured distance on the international racing scene. Over 10F you have the Cox Plate in OZ, their most prestigious race, the Hong Kong Cup, one of the most valuable races in the far east, The Dubai World Cup, the richest race in the world, Breeders Cup Classic & Kentucky Derby both 10F, the Prix du Jockey Club recentley changed down to 10F, and now the re-invigorated Champion Stakes will be on paper at least as good as the Arc.
I can envisage in the next decade or so with continued financial support that the Champion will be the premier autumn middle distance race in Europe, it is already a viable alternative to the BC Classic.The only downside is the ground which will more often than not be on the slow side.
^…spin…
But everyone knows the best races are at 1m4f Joni.
…well the Arc is, if the horses are eligible, that is, likely to show their very best form and are not geldings…
Those mentioned above, for various reasons already gone over, are not…
if they could be in it, they would be….…this year will be an exception but the Eclipse stakes will remain the best 10f turf in Europe for colts due to it’s unique position in the calendar, but as Soumillon said recently.. ”The Arc is the best race in the world”..
I have always been led to believe that The Derby was the premier race because of the many challenges,to temperament,legs,balance and endurance.For breeding purpases which of the races mentioned above challenges a horse like the Derby does?
Hope and expect Frankel to walk it, but Cirrus may be an each way thieve’s bet.
If they had the Smiley on here for the guy ROTFLMAO I’d have posted it.
The horse is 5/1 and wouldn’t beat Frankel with a furlong of a start unless the ground opens up and swallows him.
Back him ew all you can hope for is you get your money back if he’s placed or Frankel falls down a bomb hole no one has noticed since WWII
For a amathematical genius you come away with some crackers mate.
BTW he’s 1.2 on the place market I’d rather take my chances backing Frankel at 1.19 which is he is for plenty at the moment
I’m chuffed that Frankel will have some competition in the race but I’m in HGM’s camp. Even if the ground comes up soft I cant see him troubling Sir Henry’s colt.
Makes for an interesting race though.
It’s turned out Sir henry did the right thing not sending him to France. As Kris Diesis points out there’s nothing specialabout this years race apart from the fact it might be run in a bog. Perish the thought of Frankel running his final race in conditions like they will face tomorrow if the get heavy rain tonight.
If Nathaniel were to turn up in this and Frankel beats him hands down no one will give the Arc a second thought.
Plus if Sir Henry is well enough to be there and Frankel puts up another startling performance the sound of the cheers Sir Henry will get will travel all the way to Paris anyway.
Viva la AscotIt’s turned out Sir henry did the right thing not sending him to France. As Kris Diesis points out there’s nothing specialabout this years race apart from the fact it might be run in a bog. Perish the thought of Frankel running his final race in conditions like they will face tomorrow if the get heavy rain tonight.
If Nathaniel were to turn up in this and Frankel beats him hands down no one will give the Arc a second thought.
Plus if Sir Henry is well enough to be there and Frankel puts up another startling performance the sound of the cheers Sir Henry will get will travel all the way to Paris anyway.
Viva la AscotI don’t know how true it is but I spoke to one of Sir Henry’s old hands this evening in the town and he seems to think the trainer will call it a day after Frankel’s final race. He reckons Sir Henry has assembled his entire family to be at Ascot, according to him Noel and Katie and even his ex wife Julie are going to be there with him.
I say I don’t know how true because Sir Henry recently said in an interview that he had no intention of retiring.
The horse is 5/1 and wouldn’t beat Frankel with a furlong of a start unless the ground opens up and swallows him.
If the ground is soft I think Cirrus Des Aigles can beat Frankel. The gelding is one of the most underrated horses in training. Frankel apart he is the best in training at the moment. Let’s not forget last year he started at longer odds than Dubai Prince and was only a couple of points shorter than Green Destiny.
Hope and expect Frankel to walk it, but Cirrus may be an each way thieve’s bet.
If they had the Smiley on here for the guy ROTFLMAO I’d have posted it.
The horse is 5/1 and wouldn’t beat Frankel with a furlong of a start unless the ground opens up and swallows him.
Back him ew all you can hope for is you get your money back if he’s placed or Frankel falls down a bomb hole no one has noticed since WWII
For a amathematical genius you come away with some crackers mate.
BTW he’s 1.2 on the place market I’d rather take my chances backing Frankel at 1.19 which is he is for plenty at the moment
Exactly Fist, Cirrus is a 1/5 shot to be placed right now!
The last price I heard mentioned before posting that was 6/1 when the Stan James guy came on ATR (or was it RUK?) today. It seems SJ are no longer giving prices. Not that I could’ve taken it! I also said "
may be
an each way thieves price". I was hoping 6/1 might be available when we might know for definite Cirrus has come through the race well (ie in a few days time). There must also be a doubt about Nathaniel after having to pull out of the Arc. Even if the Gosden horse turns up, don’t expect Camelot or Excelebration to run… So what/who is going to stop Cirrus Des Aigles finishing in the first three?
In your next post Fist, you say "Perish the thought of Frankel running his final race in conditions like they will face tomorrow if they get heavy rain tonight"
. Well showers are forecast for Monday, Thursday and Friday, so it might be
unlikely
for Heavy ground at Ascot, but if soft it will be a bigger test of stamina than York. A test that just
might
(and only might) be too much for Frankel. Still don’t expect the Greatest One to be beaten on soft ground… But if bookies are still offering a
FREE
win bet nearer the day… why not take it? Bookmakers absolutely hate betting each way when there’s an odds-on favourite, especially when not many are fancied to be in the places… which is why this is an "each way thieves" type of race. You don’t get paid out on the win side of the bet very often, but it’s regularly enough to make a profit. It’s a question of maths.
Value Is Everythingfrankel will win easily. whats the shame about his career is they have played it too safe- they had many opportunities to run him in races that may not have been a cakewalk, but instead they chose to keep beating up on excelebration.
for example he could have run in the derby as a three year old, or taken on so you think at ascot this year, or run in the arc.
all of these challenges have been avoided in favour of an easy career, an easy passage. sad really.
I really do find it remarkable that people are critizing Frankel’s connections for "playing it safe". Why isn’t the same argument leveled at for example Danedream, why do people not expect her to be top class at a mile.
It doesn’t matter what distance your good at, its the level of performance that determines your ability, and Frankel passed the audition a long time ago.
For what its worth I’m of the opinion that Frankel will stay 12F and would win an Arc quite easily, the Champion is potentially a more difficult race anyway with Cirrus des Aigles in opposition.
People who keep criticising connections of Frankel quite frankly haven’t got a clue KD.
They come in two camps…
Those who’s minds are severely limited to believing those racing at 1m4f must be the best racehorses; and that every horse needs to run at 1m4f to "prove" its ability.
And/or
Those who couldn’t get a handle on how good Frankel was in the early years… and don’t want to admit they were wrong.
And those in both camps.
Value Is EverythingYou don’t get paid out on the win side of the bet very often, but it’s regularly enough to make a profit. It’s a question of maths.
Wrong! Very very wrong
Only idiot would put Frankel into a pool of horses and expect the odds of him getting beaten to work out the same as some maiden going off at 1/10
The chances of a horse like Frankel getting beat are not the same as some overrated 2 year old even if both horse go off at 1/10 fav.
That’s why you said after the fact you wouldn’t have taken the 6/1 you saw. So don’t blow shyte in my direction to try and cover your booo boo my old friend
You also have to consider the 2nd fav, this 5/1 or even a 10/1 shot, whatever, may not be the one you chose.
To me its a very difficult one to say you will always make a profit unless you play specifics but you say overall and that is wrong.
If Group1 contained Frankel Sea The Stars Zarkava and you oppose champions like them you’ll end up with the epitaph on your gravestone "He died waiting"……….if you can find a group that start at long odds on that are racing against unexposed horses your chances increase….If you add the two together you’ll probably still end up wasting your time
There are too many permutations to consider for you or anyone else to say you will make a profit backing against long odds on shots.
So be a man and do a hundred lines saying I made a boo boo before I fly to the UK pick up Gord and we come round and knock 10 bells out of you.
Do the maths your chances of survival are about the same as Frankel losing
Gingertipster
Sun Oct 07, 2012 1:25 am
People who keep criticising connections of Frankel quite frankly haven’t got a clue KD.They come in two camps…
Those who’s minds are severely limited to believing those racing at 1m4f must be the best racehorses; and that every horse needs to run at 1m4f to "prove" its ability.
And/or
Those who couldn’t get a handle on how good Frankel was in the early years… and don’t want to admit they were wrong.
And those in both camps.
well given I was one of the first people to point out frankels freakish ability on the betfair forum (after his win in a doncaster conditions race on his second start) I hardly think I fall into that category.
No i’m just dissapointed. apart from his 2000 guineas win, and his sussex stakes win over canford cliffs, i think i’m right in saying he’s been long odds on for pretty much every race he’s run in since his three year old career.
I think when it was obvious that he was totally dominant at a mile and was just beating up on every horse at that distance by a long way (no fault of the horse of course) then they could have stepped him up in distance and taken on new challenges.
what was the point in running him in the queen anne stakes, for instance, when he’d already thrashed excelebration a number of times already? why not step him up to 10 furlongs then, and take on so you think?
I don’t know if stepping him up to a mile and half would have been the right thing to do. if they were going to do that they should have run him in the derby, it looks as if they have done the right thing by swerving the arc. run on soft ground and you couldn’t see frankel getting home in a horse box.
but i’m just slighty dissapointed by his career path, but maybe its more to do with not having anything around at a mile that could test him.
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