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The Cambridgeshire. An imponderable challenge, but an irresistable one all the same.
Having had a look at the race the one that jumped out at me was Richard Fahey’s Bolodenka.
Available at 25/1, Bolodenka has a 7lb pull for a 2 1/2 length beating at the hands of Smart Enough on Soft over a mile at York.
I wouldn’t be put off by his subsequent fourth place behind Rohaani, with whom he enjoys a 4 lb pull courtesy of Rohaani’s penalty and, for me, if there is value he may well be it.
With the exception of J Glover, Corm, who no longer trains, and J Given, who does so on occasion, the Cambridgeshire tends to be a Southern benefit so I wouldn’t be looking at Northern raiders in this.
It’s a strange, but exciting, race and virtually impossible to predict, but I’m taking three against the field this year.
R Charlton loves the Cambridgeshire, (holds the weight carrying record with Cap Juluca and won it last year with the much improved Blue Monday) and I would expect a massive run from Another Bottle who stays further, (an often important criterion).
David Elsworth likes the race too and Snoqualmie Boy might come back to form on better ground and off a fast pace.
The underrated and often dismissed John Hills has a nice type in Dark Islander who boasts a win and a second at Newmarket and could be well handicapped under a penalty. Stamina issues there though, (by Cape Cross). Has the class to win.
Smart Enough has to be taken on, though, at a measly 5/1 despite the presence of McEvoy; good horse though he undoubtedly is.
HI,Dont forget the always luckless in running Lincoln winner BLYTHE KNIGHT who is knocking on the door ratatatat!!!!
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Pinpoint for me.<br>Showed immense promise in the Victoria Cup, unlucky in running, and over too short a trip, (ground was actually good, not g/f), he then ran well in the Royal Hunt Cup on ground a little fast for him.<br> Put away until after the Cambridgeshire weights were published, he picked up a 4lb penalty for winning the valuable John Smith’s at Newbury. Stable has already won a few big handicap pots this season, and this looks tailor-made to add to their total.
34 runners are on course to run in the Cambridgeshire tomorrow, with Smart Enough still heading the morning betting lists. Its recent form is extremely solid with a win on soft ground over 8f last time the pick of them. It steps up to 9f today on testing ground and there is alittle doubt about it seeing out the trip. Its dam, Good Enough, was a smart horse up to 11f but its sire, Cadeaux Genereux was very much a sprinter. It certainly has a progressive profile, winning 3 of its 6 races with a career best last time our, but dominating 33 other horses who all have more experinece than him (bar Charlie Cool) is a formidable task. Given that this is bound to test his stamina racing from the front, I think he could be a sitting duck for something finishing well. The draw could also have been kinder to him and he is likely to expend lots of energy early tracking over to the rail. 7/1 represents a fair each-way price, but nothing more than that, and I think there is better value elsewhere.
The first three home in the John Smith’s heritage handicap (16/09) reoppose each other today and given that they are all lightly raced, they are all entitled to improve. Pinpoint (1st) and Formal Decree (3rd)have both got a unfavoured draw (drawn next to each other 16+17), but Charlie Cool (2nd)is drawn 4 which could work to his advantage with Rocamadour likely to go off at a good gallop. Charlie Cool also gets a 3lb pull and it shouldn’t be forgotten that he was badly drawn last time. Given that he is also the biggest price of the 3 he would be my idea of a bet from those three. However slow ground is an unknown, and more rain would put me off.
Many will remember my rants at the ride Fairmile got last time. He was held up in last place and the jockey seemed to riding for the cameras on the home striaght. He then proceeded to get the gelding trapped behind a wall of horses and neglected to switch the horse wide until it was too late. The horse then came home well for a fast finshing second, and while it is a quick way to the poor house to back unlucky losers, I think it was the best horse in the race last time and with more improvement likely, I think the 9/1 offers good value. The thing that is most likely to beat him is luck in running, though one can only hope the jockey has learnt from his error last time. With the horse having a favoured high draw hopefully he won’t leave Fairmile with too much to do on the soft ground.
The 3yos look to have a very good chance with the other 3yos Illustrious Blue and Dunelight both holding chances of their own. The later is going to find the going tough at the front end and on ground it hasn’t raced on while the former is progressing nicely but all its wins have come on good ground and it will have to progress again.
Of the older horses Hinterland ran a cracking race at Ascot 2 runs ago dispite finishing 9th. He ran on "the wrong side" that day, and won his race, beating the in-form Mine amongst others. He didn’t seem to stay 11f last time and he has had a little break to freshen him up for today. Given he has won on soft ground and will get the distance, he his defintely interesting to me at a generous looking 20/1.
Another Bottle will not enjoy the ground while Blue Spinnaker has lost his form again like My Paris, who both would have had each-way chances at their best. At a really big price Red Spell is interesting at the foot of the weights after a decent run last time but he will be complaining to the weatherman as he would want ground much quicker. If the ground does dry out rapidly then Rohaani could be another to benefit.
As usual its another open race with the exception of a few no hopers and my three agianst the field are Fairmile, Charlie Cool and Hinterland, preferred in that order. All of them have good chances with a good pace assured and drying ground woulsd not be a hinderance to any of them.
Now if anyone would like to tell me the winner I’d be most grateful :biggrin:
Some interesting thoughts, FSL.
My (relatively long) shortlist as i prepare to retire for the night consists of…
BLYTHE KNIGHT (drawn 30)<br>KAMANDA LAUGH (drawn 5)<br>OFARABY (drawn 3)<br>ROYAL ISLAND (drawn 20)<br>SEULEMENT (drawn 1)<br>SMART ENOUGH (drawn 8)
I haven’t considered the draw as a factor yet, but certainly the high numbers have tended to hold sway, which would lean me towards Blythe Knight or Royal Island. Even when high does dominate though, they are several cases where something has come up the other side and got involved, so narrowing this sextet down could be tricky! (and 30 exactas plus 120 tricasts seems a little excessive…)
Agree mostly with FSL. Gun to head (Selection) Smart Enough shortish considering distance. Illustrious Blue looks better value, so small D/F if they put the stalls at the mile start by mistake;)
Damn you Pricewise! I’m pretty keen on Stagelight at around 20/1 now. This horse looked seriously good in pattern races at Nad Al Sheba but has had problems. Both runs this year suggest he retains most of that ability, particularly his eye-catching last one behind Hinterland at Sandown. Been off a while since so may have had another setback but there’s a possibility he could well be the proverbial pattern horse in a handicap that is usually required to win this.
Take a Bow looks well overpriced to these eyes
Some half decent form in Listed company this term on ground that may have been a litle on the quick side, some nice prep races imo, 2nd in this in 04 off a only a 2lb lower mark
Cracking e/w bet imhaho
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:07 pm on Sep. 30, 2006)
Last week, on average, there were eighteen races a day; all codes possible – sand shufflers, twig hoppers and the servants of Kings.
The average field was fourteen, which – with a trained eye and a stolen highlighter – can often be narrowed down to four or five live horses. And with a little luck, a punter has a chance to earn a crust.
There are two informed racing papers with pages and pages of form, trainer angles, speed thingies and historical trends. There exist a hundred tipping lines for the busy, the greedy or the just plain lazy. Message boards abound, like this one, often bursting with information and wisdom.
Down every high street, if you are over eighteen you can bet at your leisure on all these races in one of thirty thousand betting shops – all of which offer you an opinion, a warm seat, a coffee, and odds on one of approximately twelve hundred horses which competed last week.  And let’s not forget the exchanges…
We’re not short of opportunities to punt. And to win.
Why then, did I spend two hours studying a 35 runner handicap run on a course where God himself couldn’t tell you where the best ground was. Where all the horses were trying their best and had been plotted up for this all season. Where every entrant looked in advance like a Rambos Hall, a Cap Juluca, a Hacklers Pride.
And why, did I back five horses, the best of which finished eleventh.:biggrin:
Because it’s the Cambridgeshire. Don’t believe what they say…the odds on the Cambridgeshire winner are twice as juicy as those of a plating winner at Brighton.  I’ll get the winner of this one day LOL.
At least one of us got a fourth. Well done EW!;)
Cheers
Max
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