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You cannot compare what happened to Punchestowns with what happened Denman. Barry Gerathy had plenty of time to let the horse "gather his thoughts", McCoy didn’t. I just think Denman wasn’t near 100% in the Aon.
Considering the winner of The Aon was still well behind Denman when he fell I think McCoy DID have time to just help him over the third last, no need to chuck the horse at the fence and ask for a big one when he was still getting himself together, he’s a horse who sorts himself out at a fence.
I’ve noticed one major difference in the way AP takes a look back between his legs and the way Sam Thomas or Nina Carberry do the same thing.
When AP look back he always seems to be starting to get anxious, when Nina or Sam does it, one just knows everything is well under control.BTW I’m not saying Sam Thomas is anymore than a very competant jockey but he seems to get on with Denman better than anyone else, even Ruby…..maybe I should re-phrase that…it seems to me that Denman gets on better with Sam than any other jockey I’ve seen on his back including Christian Williams.
FWIW I think McCoy could have a very good festival and overall probably has a better book of rides than Geraghty. Of course Ruby has far superior ammo to any of them , Big Bucks, Kauto, Masterminded and Quevega will probably all lower SPs than any of McCoy or Geraghtys rides.
The Arkle is the key race for AP. I think Captain Cee Bee is the best horse in the race but if he blunders his chance away AP’s confidence level will take a knock straight away.
- Total Posts 17716
Tricky Trickster may have been some way behind Denman when he made his first mistake, CS, but you seem to be ignoring the fact that Niche Market wasn’t. As they turned in Denman looked as though he was going to power away from the eventual runner-up, but he began to tire in the straight and had lost much of his (six-length) advantage when he clattered the fourth-last.
McCoy had very little time to do anything given the proximity of the Buckler horse and had he steadied Denman in to the third-last (at a time when the then leader was beginning to edge away) and lost, I dare say he’d have received even more criticism.
If there’s a jockey better suited to a bull like Denman than Tony McCoy – Ruby aside, perhaps – then I’d be amazed. Only Paul Nicholls can take the blame for his defeat at Newbury.
Play It Again Sam……………Can we leave it as it is for now……. one of us can stuff our faces with Humble Pie after the Gold Cup
Tricky Trickster may have been some way behind Denman when he made his first mistake, CS, but you seem to be ignoring the fact that Niche Market wasn’t. As they turned in Denman looked as though he was going to power away from the eventual runner-up, but he began to tire in the straight and had lost much of his (six-length) advantage when he clattered the fourth-last.
McCoy had very little time to do anything given the proximity of the Buckler horse and had he steadied Denman in to the third-last (at a time when the then leader was beginning to edge away) and lost, I dare say he’d have received even more criticism.
If there’s a jockey better suited to a bull like Denman than Tony McCoy – Ruby aside, perhaps – then I’d be amazed. Only Paul Nicholls can take the blame for his defeat at Newbury.
A belated welcome to the board PIS – you seem to have all your faculties, which is a welcome bonus in a newbie.
- Total Posts 17716
Tricky Trickster may have been some way behind Denman when he made his first mistake, CS, but you seem to be ignoring the fact that Niche Market wasn’t. As they turned in Denman looked as though he was going to power away from the eventual runner-up, but he began to tire in the straight and had lost much of his (six-length) advantage when he clattered the fourth-last.
McCoy had very little time to do anything given the proximity of the Buckler horse and had he steadied Denman in to the third-last (at a time when the then leader was beginning to edge away) and lost, I dare say he’d have received even more criticism.
If there’s a jockey better suited to a bull like Denman than Tony McCoy – Ruby aside, perhaps – then I’d be amazed. Only Paul Nicholls can take the blame for his defeat at Newbury.
Disagree completely.
Denman never has ‘powered away’ from anything worthwhile over 3m since his novice days, he is a strong galloping type that needs more of a test to be seen at his best.
No one can say what would have happened had AP not been so forceful after the error, but good judges such as John Francome and Ruby Walsh have since intimated that may have been the wiser course. What we can say, with some certainty, is that he could hardly have been worse off.
I’ll stand by what I said at the time, there are plenty of jockeys that would have been more patient at that particular juncture.- Total Posts 17716
…Denman never has ‘powered away’ from anything worthwhile over 3m since his novice days…
Perhaps not, but nor has he ever established a six-length lead heading towards the final four fences whilst apparently still cantering, only to lose that lead in less than a furlong before clattering an obstacle when coming under (seemingly) unlikely pressure.
Denman’s defeat had nothing to do with McCoy and everything to do with Nicholls not having him ready to race. The alternative is that he was fit, he was deemed to be running up to form until the mishap at the fourth-last and McCoy was indeed the cause of the fall. In that case turning up at Cheltenham is absolutely pointless.
Edited.
REALLY? Check your facts. She regularly has a 25% to 30% wins to rides seasonal record, not even Ruby can match that
Really, suggest you check your facts CS if you are going to say such things. Where did you get those stats from?
If she "regularly" has 25% to 30% wins to rides:
How come (according to the Racing Post) her strike rate over the last 5 years is only 18.5% in Ireland and only 13.5% in Britain?
No wonder you have an inflated opinion of Nina.
Value Is EverythingDo you not think that Tom was merely relating to the McCoy factor and stating that as he looks for ‘value’ with McCoy on board that ‘value’ has gone?
REALLY? Check your facts. She regularly has a 25% to 30% wins to rides seasonal record, not even Ruby can match that
Really, suggest you check your facts CS if you are going to say such things. Where did you get those stats from?
Oooops Stats came from a recent The Racing and Football Outlook, I should have known better than to trust the rag
If she "regularly" has 25% to 30% wins to rides:
How come (according to the Racing Post) her strike rate over the last 5 years is only 18.5% in Ireland and only 13.5% in Britain?
Remember she’s only 23 and still improving …check the last two years, UK 33%, UK 29%, Ireland 29% this season, the season before jumps only excl NHF (N. Meade’s bumpers were out of form that season) 20%
No wonder you have an inflated opinion of Nina.
So how good (or not) do you think she is?
…Denman never has ‘powered away’ from anything worthwhile over 3m since his novice days…
Perhaps not, but nor has he ever established a six-length lead heading towards the final four fences whilst apparently still cantering, only to lose that lead in less than a furlong before clattering an obstacle when coming under (seemingly) unlikely pressure.
Denman’s defeat had nothing to do with McCoy and everything to do with Nicholls not having him ready to race. The alternative is that he was fit, he was deemed to be running up to form until the mishap at the fourth-last and McCoy was indeed the cause of the fall. In that case turning up at Cheltenham is absolutely pointless.
Agree with your points about AP. And may be Nicholls did not have Denman 100% fit. But many trainers don’t have them 100% for preps / trials. They’re being trained for the big day. Even if Denman was 85% fit, he should’ve been able to beat that field easily, he should’ve been able to jump the fences being 85% fit too.
The one primarily at fault for Denman’s fall was (imo) Denman himself.
Value Is EverythingREALLY? Check your facts. She regularly has a 25% to 30% wins to rides seasonal record, not even Ruby can match that
Really, suggest you check your facts CS if you are going to say such things. Where did you get those stats from?
Oooops Stats came from a recent The Racing and Football Outlook, I should have known better than to trust the rag
If she "regularly" has 25% to 30% wins to rides:
How come (according to the Racing Post) her strike rate over the last 5 years is only 18.5% in Ireland and only 13.5% in Britain?
Remember she’s only 23 and still improving …check the last two years, UK 33%, UK 29%, Ireland 29% this season, the season before jumps only excl NHF (N. Meade’s bumpers were out of form that season) 20%
No wonder you have an inflated opinion of Nina.
So how good (or not) do you think she is?
Again don’t see where you got those stats from CS.
The two year percentages don’t come from a big enough sample to judge from anyway.
In the current 09/10 season Nina’s had only 6 runs in GB winning 2 (33%).
In 08/09 she had just 8 runs in GB, winning 2 (25%).
2 seasons together 4 wins from 14 rides (28.6%)In Ireland this 09/10 season 35 from 131 (26.7%). In 08/09 29 from 196 (14.8%)
Adding the two seasons together: 68 wins from 341 races (19.9%). Still too small a sample to come to a good opinion. Especially as a significant number of rides are in uncompetitive races. Cross-country chases (often riding for Enda Bolger who farms those races). A massive 77.4% of her rides over the last 5 seasons (645 of 833) have been in NHF races, another type known to be uncompetitive.
As I said previously, I believe Nina is the best female jockey we’ve ever seen over jumps. However, I’d probably put at least 15 male jockeys in front of her. I do rate "Head" Turner in my top 10 flat jockeys.
Value Is EverythingI can’t believe people honestly think Robert Thornton is a better jockey than McCoy.
The records speak for themselves.
I can’t believe people honestly think Robert Thornton is a better jockey than McCoy.
The records speak for themselves.
I presume you are referring to records round Plumpton?
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