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<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
Well after Gosdens pre-race comments ‘He’s a big 2nd half of the season horse who will probably find one or two too quick today’ one would have to say he’s No Derby horse Joni…..Gosden was embarrassing yet again!
I never heard Gosden’s pre race comments Gord but it wouldn’t seem to make sense to see a horse backed in from 7/2 the night before, into odds-on and then be saying you think he might find some too fast for him.
Exactly Steve but thats what we come to expect from Gosden,he is a total fabricator of truth,he couldn’t have played the horses chances down anymore than he did and the horse couldn’t have won any easier than he did.Everything that Gosden said was a contradiction of what actually happened.His communication skills are so bad had he been a member of Bomber command he’d have bombed London instead of Berlin!
Tiggy Wiggy’s sparring partner from last season, Anthem Alexander, makes her return to the track at Naas this evening.
Sprint king Lynam’s Starspangledbanner filly met Hannon’s speed queen Tiggy Wiggy three times last season, winning once and finishing runner up twice. In the process she became one of the highest rated of her generation and she is a warm favourite to regain the winning thread in the Listed Woodland Stakes over 5f.
For me, there are enough reasons to take her on this evening though and the first of these is that she is tackling male horses and older horses this time. There are some more experienced sprinters in the mix and I always worry for fillies, particularly sprint types, training on from two to three. She could prove me completely wrong and outclass these with her weight allowances there to offset the physical age and the perception of being the weaker sex.
We saw with Tiggy Wiggy recently that superior form does not always carry forward to the next season and the handicapper took the view that Tiggy Wiggy didn’t run to form, leaving her rated on 117 and still well ahead of Redstart on 106 and Jellicle Ball on 104, the two fillies who beat her in the Fred Darling.
Anthem Alexander comes here with a 114 rating and her weight concessions mean she gets more than a stone from the older horse Maarek, who has to shoulder 10st but a couple of other factors put me off backing her on these favourable looking terms. Firstly she ran her poorest race on her debut last year, when she was sixth and her three defeats came at 6f, suggesting stamina may be an issue. It is 5f tonight but the yielding ground may not suit her.
I am siding with Maarek because he will like the ground. His season started promisingly last year before tailing off but he won this race in 2013 and was runner up to a promising 3yo of Aiden O’Brien’s in last years renewal. He’s no spring chicken but he could just about be up to winning this again with conditions likely to suit. Jamie Spencer is booked to ride and at 5/1 I think he’s sporting value against the speedy 2yo trying to show she’s still fast, rather than potentially precocious, at 3yo.
7.10 Naas Maarek 5/1 (Coral, Bet Victor, Bet365)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anthem Alexander a non-runner and a decent run from Maarek without looking like he had the pace to catch the front two.
After a good first two weeks I can’t buy a winner and last Saturday was just awful. I have been sticking to in form trainers and was rewarded with two stone lasts and a couple of god awful runs for my troubles.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m in that same boat Steve. Had a great start to the season, my thread was showing some nice profit and I had Tatlisu, Four Seasons, right at start of the season before my thread started. I normally start slow , but this season I was flying early on.
Its gone downhill recently though, cant find a winner and confidence low. Just end up questioning everything and cant see the wood for the trees!Gotta stick with it and keep to my way of working and it will pull through at some point….hopefully today!
With the Chester meeting starting tomorrow it’s time to dig out a bet and I’ll go against the Aiden O Brien filly in the 2.40 Race.
Diamondsandrubies varies between 9/4 down to 13/8 and is automatically going to be popular as a Balldoyle horse. Top rated here, she also has a couple of runs under her belt this season, a Tipperary maiden win on the soft and then third in a listed contest on yielding ground at Navan. Ryan Moore is on board and I can see the logic in picking her here.
This trip is a little bit further though and she hasn’t got a lot in hand on the ratings over fillies who may improve tackling the longer trip.
Victoria Pollard won her only start, travelling well but perhaps not winning by as far as expected last time. The ground is softer this time and it was only a maiden she won.
Michael Bell’s Banzari hosed home on her third start last year but she was a hot favourite and it wasn’t much of a race really. The runner up got beat at 1/20f before getting off the mark next time and I just feel this is a bit tougher ask, although you can forgive her second start last year when pitched into group 2 company behind Agnes Stewart.
John Gosden saddles two with similar profiles and ratings, in Zamoura, who seems favoured in the betting with Frankie on board, and Entertainment, ridden by James Doyle. I’m not convinced either is quite likely to step up here.
Loaves And Fishes won her only start at two, over a mile at Haydock. Jesus proved that loaves and fishes can go a long way in the right hands and she is entered in the Oaks itself. A slight worry for me is this trip on yielding ground, with her sire being Oasis Dream. The Clive Cox stable has been a little bit quiet thus far as well, although they did have a winner today.
At the odds, a chance is taken on What Say You, who made her debut when 4th to Malabar in an Ascot maiden. The first three home all won races, including a group 3 in the mix, and What Say You herself went on to win a Newmarket maiden next time, where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all went on to win on their next start.
What Say You was a bit out of her depth in the Rockfel next time when she was 6th to Lucida, but that horse has just been narrowly pipped in the Guineas and runner up Fadhayyil was also in the Guineas mix.
If the daughter of Galileo can improve for the step up in trip and change of stables from Karl Burke to Rae Guest, then she might well be involved. The stable isn’t really in form but they haven’t had a lot of runners and, to be honest, don’t have a lot of good horses running so far this season. I think enough good names crop up in her form lines to think she’s got some ability and she is entered in the Oaks, so presumably they are hopeful. At 8/1 I think it’s worth a shot against the favourite in a winnable looking trial that will probably cause few Oaks ripples in the aftermath.
2.40 Chester Wednesday What Say You 8/1
What Say You? What Say Me? Hopefully not “Bollocks”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Franny Norton has said the ground is proper soft at Chester. He doesn’t think that will suit his horse. It should suit Gabrial’s Star, whose winning form is on that surface. Consistent enough and drawn well in box 2. I’ll take a chance on him each way at 18/1 with some not likely to appreciate the ground and others poorly drawn.
3.10 Chester Gabrial’s Star each-way 18/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the Chester meeting starting tomorrow it’s time to dig out a bet and I’ll go against the Aiden O Brien filly in the 2.40 Race.
Diamondsandrubies varies between 9/4 down to 13/8 and is automatically going to be popular as a Balldoyle horse. Top rated here, she also has a couple of runs under her belt this season, a Tipperary maiden win on the soft and then third in a listed contest on yielding ground at Navan. Ryan Moore is on board and I can see the logic in picking her here.
This trip is a little bit further though and she hasn’t got a lot in hand on the ratings over fillies who may improve tackling the longer trip.
Victoria Pollard won her only start, travelling well but perhaps not winning by as far as expected last time. The ground is softer this time and it was only a maiden she won.
Michael Bell’s Banzari hosed home on her third start last year but she was a hot favourite and it wasn’t much of a race really. The runner up got beat at 1/20f before getting off the mark next time and I just feel this is a bit tougher ask, although you can forgive her second start last year when pitched into group 2 company behind Agnes Stewart.
John Gosden saddles two with similar profiles and ratings, in Zamoura, who seems favoured in the betting with Frankie on board, and Entertainment, ridden by James Doyle. I’m not convinced either is quite likely to step up here.
Loaves And Fishes won her only start at two, over a mile at Haydock. Jesus proved that loaves and fishes can go a long way in the right hands and she is entered in the Oaks itself. A slight worry for me is this trip on yielding ground, with her sire being Oasis Dream. The Clive Cox stable has been a little bit quiet thus far as well, although they did have a winner today.
At the odds, a chance is taken on What Say You, who made her debut when 4th to Malabar in an Ascot maiden. The first three home all won races, including a group 3 in the mix, and What Say You herself went on to win a Newmarket maiden next time, where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all went on to win on their next start.
What Say You was a bit out of her depth in the Rockfel next time when she was 6th to Lucida, but that horse has just been narrowly pipped in the Guineas and runner up Fadhayyil was also in the Guineas mix.
If the daughter of Galileo can improve for the step up in trip and change of stables from Karl Burke to Rae Guest, then she might well be involved. The stable isn’t really in form but they haven’t had a lot of runners and, to be honest, don’t have a lot of good horses running so far this season. I think enough good names crop up in her form lines to think she’s got some ability and she is entered in the Oaks, so presumably they are hopeful. At 8/1 I think it’s worth a shot against the favourite in a winnable looking trial that will probably cause few Oaks ripples in the aftermath.
2.40 Chester Wednesday What Say You 8/1
What Say You? What Say Me? Hopefully not “Bollocks”
Bollocks indeed.
Easy peasy for the favourite there, the only horse anyone wanted to know about. O’Brien is the proverbial different gravy when it really matters and is a juggernaut it seems folly to oppose when they are not farting about training in public early doors.
What Say You was abysmal. Whether Hughes couldn’t settle her or just wanted to hold her up markedly I am not sure. She found very little and weakened dramatically. An Oaks entry looks a joke on that showing, unless it’s the Zambian Oaks or something. Didn’t seem to stay at all there and a grim effort.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gabrials Star never had a chance. Drawn well, he ended up buried away. He seemed to be travelling OK but had nowhere to go when the race began in earnest. The jockey had to go widest of the lot in the end to try to get and run and finished quite well in the end, all in vain. Not a great ride from the jockey but that’s racing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s been a grim time but I have a horse that looks worth a maximum bet on Friday.
Marco Botti’s Tac Du Boistron needs the soft to be at his best and with rain at Chester the ground is now what will suit him.
A bit further in trip might be better and it’s not a galloping track here but class and the ground make him an obvious preference for me over Windshear, who just isn’t quite there for me, despite his placed efforts.
Big Orange and Clever Cookie are alternatives but I honestly made Tac Du Boistron 6/4 in my eyes and he’s 5/2, so it’s time to mobilise the troops and get in there.
Ormonde Stakes Friday Chester Tac Du Boistron 5/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s been a grim time but I have a horse that looks worth a maximum bet on Friday.
Marco Botti’s Tac Du Boistron needs the soft to be at his best and with rain at Chester the ground is now what will suit him.
A bit further in trip might be better and it’s not a galloping track here but class and the ground make him an obvious preference for me over Windshear, who just isn’t quite there for me, despite his placed efforts.
Big Orange and Clever Cookie are alternatives but I honestly made Tac Du Boistron 6/4 in my eyes and he’s 5/2, so it’s time to mobilise the troops and get in there.
Ormonde Stakes Friday Chester Tac Du Boistron 5/2
I agree, TDB is very good value @ 5/2 Steve. Going, course, distance are all sure to suit. This is his reappearance, but goes really well fresh too. Not sure about “6/4”, with doubts about pace. Hope Fattsota runs, NR today because of the ground; has already cost me a winner (Maverick Wave getting a soft lead). If a NR then Big Orange could do the same and might leave the selection too far back. I’ll probably save on BO.
I backed Windshear at Newbury, unsuited by the pace and staying on again. This trip might be what he’s crying out for, but strike rate is beginning to be a worry. Clever Cookie has his chance, not sure he’ll be 100% fit for this. Others don’t really look up to it.
Value Is EverythingWindshear is a horse I follow off a cliff, ground and distance will be fine and they have fitted him with a visor but he wont like all these tight turns, he wants to gallop.
I’m keeping away so watch him bolt up.Blackbeard to conquer the World
I have backed Fattsota each wat at 9/1 Steve purely on official figure which make him joint top rated with Windshear with tha fav and Big Orange two pounds behind but I do think the ground will suit Tac but Fattsota is the value I think to lead all the way.
Good Luck
I have backed Fattsota each wat at 9/1 Steve purely on official figure which make him joint top rated with Windshear with tha fav and Big Orange two pounds behind but I do think the ground will suit Tac but Fattsota is the value I think to lead all the way.
Good Luck
Cheers Raymo, the problem I have with Fattsota is that I’m not sure I trust his handicap mark. He seemed fairly exposed at around about a little bit over 100 in the ratings but he went up 9 lbs for winning 8 lengths last time. At the age of 7 and with 30 runs under his belt I find it odd that he would suddenly improve by so much. The other factor is the very different ground he’ll face and Tac Du Boistron has such a great and consistent record on soft ground that he seems sure to run well and take the beating here.
Big Orange improved last year and further progress would make him a player getting 7lbs but I feel Tac Du Boistron may have a little to give yet, with just 21 runs at the age of 8. He’s won two group 1 races in France and the trip/ground combination was against him in his only defeat last year.
Windshear has a visor on for the first time tomorrow but he doesn’t win often enough for my liking. He beat Fattsota earlier this year and on softer ground I think he may confirm that, despite the latter horse’s hike in the ratings since.
Hopefully Tac Du Boistron to have too much juice for Big Orange, despite him making some ap-peel as an alternative.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What can you say. You call the price early and sit there with the SP beaten by miles. You look like everything is in order and all the rest are under pressure. Your horse sweeps into the lead and it seems a question of how far. Then one that was rowed along the whole way starts to stay on and you think, oh no, maybe he’ll hold on but the reality becomes clear that you’re going to get shunted up the back passage yet again.
I can take the hint that it’s time to pack this in.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Second day in a row front runner Fatsota ballsed the race up for me. Yesyterday a non-runner because of the soft ground resulting in the winner getting a soft lead and just holding on from my saver and main bets. Today, expecting him to be a non-runner on even softer ground meant he took on my saver bet in front. They went faster than I’d have hoped and Tac Du Boistron (who travels well/has speed as well as stamina) beaten by the grinder who would not have had the finishing kick had pace been slower.
You made good analysis and again identified excellent value Steve. Might not seem like it now, but stands to reason being able to do that means you’ll profit in the long term. No need to give up.
Value Is EverythingFatsota helped me big time only one winner yesterday on course £150 maverick wave @ 5/1 as soon as it was declared a n/r I thought maverick wave was a great price round action suggested better with some give.
Steve maybe enjoy the racing and just go to a few meetings less pressure then and the enjoyment might come back, it’s a very frustrating game.
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