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Rather than clutter up the board I’ll chuck all my musings into this thread.
It’s a tricky time of year with figuring out which stables are going to hit the ground running. John Gosden has had a pretty disappointing week, with Richard Pankhurst out of the Guineas due to injury and Faydhan being a major disappointment in the Free Handicap before also being ruled out for Newmarket. Golden Horn was the only real bright spot, with Lady Correspondent fluffing her lines in the Nell Gwyn. This time last year he was firing winners out like bullets from sniper rifle but this year it looks like he needs a blunderbuss to hit the mark.
Michael Stoute has had it quiet so far and I think more time might help his horses in general. However, he had a winner today and a narrow second and a couple of others have run quite well. I made a note of one of his horses last back end and he’s running tomorrow, looking interesting in a 7f Handicap at Newbury.
Capel Path is owned by The Queen and finished mid division on his debut in a Newmarket Handicap that has thrown up several winners. He was then third in a maiden won by John Gosden’s Derby entry Christophermarlowe, who went on to win at Epsom, catching the eye of a few ante-post players. Capel Path continued his progress by landing a Newcastle Maiden in October, where he took the race in impressive style by four lengths. He looked potentially decent that day and I think he should improve this year and leave his mark of 83 behind in the process. The way he ran at a mile and his win at 7f suggests that this 7f trip may be better than the longer trip.
Godolphin have Strong Chemistry off top weight here and he’s generally a narrow favourite in an open looking heat. He ran in a Group 3 and wasn’t that far behind the winner, although the strength of the race compared to its designation is slightly questionable.
Just for a change, the Timeform boys tip up a Roger Varian trained horse. They seem almost obsessed with Varian, Haggas and Godolphin, maybe in that order. Roger Varian has had it pretty quiet though and has just one winner this month, at Chelmsford. I’d like to see him hit better form. Willie Haggas is having it even quieter but I dare say they’ll both pull it round in time.
Anyway, I have to stick with my opinion that Capel Path is progressive and 6/1 looks a fair enough price with Ryan Moore on board.
3.25 Newbury Friday Capel Path 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Bet Victor)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was quite enjoying you cluttering up the lays and plays with all the catchy headlines.
It goes without saying good luck with the thread Steve, your views are always worth reading.
Any thoughts on Windshear’s race against Romsdal coming up at Newbury on Saturday?Blackbeard to conquer the World
I was quite enjoying you cluttering up the lays and plays with all the catchy headlines.
It goes without saying good luck with the thread Steve, your views are always worth reading.
Any thoughts on Windshear’s race against Romsdal coming up at Newbury on Saturday?I wasn’t a big fan of Windshear last season. He was progressive and ran some decent races but I felt he was just short of top class. Romsdal was placed in the Derby and St Leger, but for all that, he’s never actually won on turf yet.
Romsdal is a warm favourite but I am not sure if I’d go in heavy with Gosden having some disappointments this past week.
Stoutie’s Arab Spring made good progress last year and landed a gamble at Royal Ascot. It was a bit surprising to see him go off evens favourite in a Group 2 next time, after his handicap win, and he couldn’t maintain his winning run. Off the track since, I assume he had a problem but with Stoute not quite at full tilt yet and having to concede weight to the 4yo horses, I am not sure he’s a betting proposition at 3/1.
I’ll probably skip the race but Romsdal at 15/8 would be my choice if forced to pick now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
3.55 Newbury Lucky Beggar
Won the race last year, wasn’t going to play at morning odd but 3/1 looks worth a look.
Robot Boy is fav but Lucky Beggar won this last year and ran behind Naadirr, when future winner Astaire was second. The drop back to five should suit and he’s my pick, despite the Charlie Hills factor.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
3.55 Newbury Lucky Beggar
Won the race last year, wasn’t going to play at morning odd but 3/1 looks worth a look.
Robot Boy is fav but Lucky Beggar won this last year and ran behind Naadirr, when future winner Astaire was second. The drop back to five should suit and he’s my pick, despite the Charlie Hills factor.
Was suffering sun stroke when backing a Charlie Hills runner, too long in the heat cutting down 40 year old rose bushes does strange things to a man.
Ran pretty poorly and he was pretty weak in the market.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Back to sensibility after a dabble with Charlie Hills.
Wednesday sees a likeable sort make his seasonable debut at Epsom.
Mount Logan had a couple of wins last year and went into the November Handicap as second favourite but, like everything else in the field he couldn’t cope with runaway winner Open Eagle in the mud.
Back on a sound surface I think he has the ability and scope to win the City And Suburban Handicap against more exposed rivals. Adam Kirby is booked for Luca Cumani’s horse and the stable won the big handicap on Saturday with Ayaar, signalling a potential start of some better form after a quiet spell and I expect a good run from this sort who has run his poorest races with cut in the ground.
At 5/1 I think he’s a reasonable bet.
What About Carlo is favourite in some places and he was 4th in the Lincoln. That race hasn’t really panned out with winner Gabrial only 8th on Saturday and Mondialiste being third in a Group 3 is probably the best of eight efforts from that race. Typical of my luck that Gabrial should finish with a wet sail to lift the Lincoln and defy my 25/1 selection, only to run like a sack of rusty spanners next time.
Andrew Balding’s Collaboration is generally next in the betting but although he won last time at Windsor, it was a modest grade 5 handicap and he’s running in a grade 2 Handicap here.
Imshivilla was progressive and a prolific winner for Richard Fahey last year. With the stable in form she is another to consider. Topweight Fire Fighting is fit and has won here but generally runs over further and lacks the scope of the selection.
I’ll give Mount Logan the chance to progress and reward an interest on only his 9th start.
3.55 Epsom Wednesday Mount Logan 5/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think you have beat the market here Steve, be surprised if he does not go off shorter, closer to 3s I reckon.
Two outsiders catching my eye here. I had Elkaayed down as horse to follow ever since it won its maiden impressively beating Arab Spring. They both went into the notebook after that race, whilst I had to wait a long time for Arab Spring to reappear, it was worth it. However, same cannot be said for Elkaayed! It ran some good races back in 2013 at group level, but last year was a huge disappointment. I just think the ease in grade and rating might give him a chance tomorrow, I think 10f on good to firm is what it wants and I think it may outrun it’s price.
However, my selection is another out of form horse! Sennockian Star Ew for me here, it seems to really like Epsom and I think good to firm is again the key with this horse. I hope it sits prominent tomorrow and kicks early like it has in the past at Epsom. It’s runs in Meydan were average , I thought it’s performance at Chelmsford was better than it looked on face value. Happy to forgive the Pontefract run as horses were finishing very tired and strung out that day, the ground seemed energy sapping and it’s not what this horse wants. I’m never too sure where I am with this yard, but they have a habit of bring horses back to form out of the blue and I think it has most things in its favour tomorrow.
I think you have beat the market here Steve, be surprised if he does not go off shorter, closer to 3s I reckon.
Two outsiders catching my eye here. I had Elkaayed down as horse to follow ever since it won its maiden impressively beating Arab Spring. They both went into the notebook after that race, whilst I had to wait a long time for Arab Spring to reappear, it was worth it. However, same cannot be said for Elkaayed! It ran some good races back in 2013 at group level, but last year was a huge disappointment. I just think the ease in grade and rating might give him a chance tomorrow, I think 10f on good to firm is what it wants and I think it may outrun it’s price.
However, my selection is another out of form horse! Sennockian Star Ew for me here, it seems to really like Epsom and I think good to firm is again the key with this horse. I hope it sits prominent tomorrow and kicks early like it has in the past at Epsom. It’s runs in Meydan were average , I thought it’s performance at Chelmsford was better than it looked on face value. Happy to forgive the Pontefract run as horses were finishing very tired and strung out that day, the ground seemed energy sapping and it’s not what this horse wants. I’m never too sure where I am with this yard, but they have a habit of bring horses back to form out of the blue and I think it has most things in its favour tomorrow.
I can’t fathom Mark Johnston at all, I can’t tell you how many of his I have done in egg and spoon races only to see them well beaten and then have to watch them romp home at big odds in races two or three grades better shortly afterwards.
Sennockian Star won this last year and is only 1 lb higher now but has been out of sorts. I wouldn’t rule him out totally by any means but I rarely back Johnston’s horses. One of his horses last season at this very stage, Hartnell, was napped by me at about 15/8 for the Investec Derby trial at Epsom and he ran like a drain, finishing slightly distressed. He later popped up and won the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot and the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket. Very frustrating trainer for me anyway.
What About Carlo seems the one for money tomorrow but I’m staying loyal with Mount Logan.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lousy effort from Mount Logan. After breaking well he seemed to either fall back or be taken back by the jockey, something I always feel is stupid when you’ve trapped well. His effort petered out very quickly and that was an absolute stinker from Cumani’s horse.
Collaboration ran out a ready winner and defied a three grade rise from 5 to 2, not to mention being four pounds out of the handicap. Clearly a big improver from last season and a horse to keep the right side of.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The fillies maiden at Sandown today sees a wide spread of opinion in the betting.
I expected that Michael Stoute’s Moonlight Sonata was a filly who would lose her maiden tag sooner, rather than later and have to take an interest in her at 2/1. She’s as low as 11/8 in some places, which I think is nearer the likely price she should be with some form in the book and she is only a maiden by a nose margin.
Of course something else could be lurking in there and the Stoute stable isn’t in full swing yet, although horses like Arab Spring are giving signs of encouragement. A good show from Cannock Chase earlier may see some confidence behind Moonlight Sonata later.
2/1 looks a bit too big to let slide.
4.10 Sandown Moonlight Sonata to call the tune at 2/1 (Sporting Bet)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Beat the SP easily but the horse was never looking likely to win. Cannock Chase ran a bit below expectations earlier and that was Stoute’s last chance as far as I am concerned.
Pretty poor stuff from Stoute so far this year and he looks a shadow of the man who used to fire out Classic winners on a regular basis.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Training Career
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What did you make of Jack Hobbs Steve? Looked mighty impressive to me but what did he beat I wonder????
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
What did you make of Jack Hobbs Steve? Looked mighty impressive to me but what did he beat I wonder????
Well after Gosdens pre-race comments ‘He’s a big 2nd half of the season horse who will probably find one or two too quick today’ one would have to say he’s No Derby horse Joni…..Gosden was embarrassing yet again!
Hahahahaha! We’re off again are we Gord?!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
What did you make of Jack Hobbs Steve? Looked mighty impressive to me but what did he beat I wonder????
I didn’t see the race Joni but I feel it’s ridiculous to have the horse as 2nd favourite for the Derby in some lists for romping home off 85 in a handicap.
There are a few stables not is top gear yet. Stoute has let me down a couple of times, Haggas has been slow to get going, Varian has had nothing much apart form Intilaaq and Cumani has been poor apart from runaway Handicap winner Ayaar last Saturday in all honesty.
Gosden had a slow first week with Faydhan, Lady Correspondent etc disappointing but he’s bang there now whilst some of the others are still farting and spluttering towards starting the engine.
Jack Hobbs is a nice prospect by one of my all time favourites Halling and it’s unusual to see a horse who made his two year old debut two days after Christmas now sitting near the top of the Derby betting after a handicap win. I would need to see him again before believing he’s a Derby contender.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well after Gosdens pre-race comments ‘He’s a big 2nd half of the season horse who will probably find one or two too quick today’ one would have to say he’s No Derby horse Joni…..Gosden was embarrassing yet again!
I never heard Gosden’s pre race comments Gord but it wouldn’t seem to make sense to see a horse backed in from 7/2 the night before, into odds-on and then be saying you think he might find some too fast for him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s definitely worth a watch though Stevie. A great big powerful colt he could have won by 20 lengths if Frankie had let him go slightly earlier. As it was he won by 12 and though it was only a handicap there were a lot of well-represented stables with unexposed horses. I take your point about the top stables not hitting top gear yet but those classics come around pretty quickly…… I might just add that 2 of his opponents today held Derby entries including Pallister who was beaten under 5 lengths by Highland Reel in a Group 2. He was beaten 21 lengths today conceding 8lb’s.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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