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I developed a particularly amateur system two years ago which was not bombproof at all IE. too many variables and essentially it leaked very erratic results.
First thing’s first – is there a website I could read to help me put together a more professional system?
The factors I take into place, in no order:
– Going
– Distance
– Track
– Weight
– ClassThe aim is to credit/debit a runner with points based on the severity of those factors above. Then, with a final score, plug those numbers into another system to frame a market.
Now … I did know of a website which had a step-by-step guide of how to frame a market using a system, but I have forgotten it.
Can the structure of a system determine whether or not you can be able to hold your discipline about it?
What’s the best way to put a system together?
Thanks in advance.
Very interesting discussion.
For about 12 months I worked on putting together a programme/calculation taking into account the factors you mention. Although I really enjoyed the challenge it was exceptionally time consuming and very confusing.
Apart from the factors you mention you could also include:
draw
jockey
handicap mark (obviously different from weight)
trainer form
wins-to-runs ratio etc….I spent a long time looking at specific races and there were some ‘patterns’ that emerged. The one factor that really interested me was the horse’s wins to runs ratio. It was amazing seeing time and time again horses who rarely troubled the judge being punted into short-price and losing. It was certainly a factor I took into consideration.
Anyway, despite all that,the biggest problem (in my exceptionally humble opinion) was how do you ‘weight’ the variables?
How do you score ‘going’? Do you think it’s a more decisive factor than course form? If you do… well, where’s your evidence?
The ‘going’ is probably one of the most dicussed topics in racing and most punters/journalists/trainers/jockeys genuflect before the importance of it. However, how do you assess it? Do you just look at horses winning on that going, placed on that going, recording a certain RPR on that going? How do you separate other factors that may have contributed to a poor/excellent run?
Okay, once you’ve got all that done (which I never did, lol) if you’re talking about ascribing points to horses and you’ve sorted out your weighting for each calculation how do you create your own market? Do you take each horse score and divide by the total, create a percentage and form your book? Hmmmm, I tried it and it was a minefield. I ended up with favourites at 9/2 which were in reality odds-on! Unfortunately, the bookies’ tissue was a lot more accurate than mine.
It wasn’t a total waste of my time (honestly, it wasn’t!). There were some factors that I now give more consideration to, such as handicap mark, trainer form and wins to runs ratio. However, without wishing to start another cyber-war I now use these factors to price-up my own market and search for the ever elusive/controversial ‘value’.
Best of luck!
I was worried about adding too many factors, and that they would begin confusing the system and feeding out useless numbers.
Jim McGrath says going is most important, no?
I’m looking at scoring runners based on an initial system of the aforementioned factors, then taking those scores and adding likelihoods of which horses are actually a "chance" of winning, dividing, multiplying and whatnot to bring up prices.
I’ve forgotten the system I used to make prices unfortunately. And I wish I could find it! It is online, I am certain of this.
I’ve sniffed it – my tail went between my legs.
Brilliant Myles, made me laugh out loud
Don’t think I’d better comment much on this otherwise the gang of four might step in.
Just to say, the problem I have with systems is they never or rarely account for the V word. I have thought about trying it and come to the same conclusions as RF. Think it is impossible because with something like temperament, it would only contribute say 5% to one horses "rating", but 90% to another.
I did think of one system that might work (but have done no research).Take two of the big four bookmakers.
Make a note of the best early prices the two selected bookies are offering.
Take what you think is the bookies mark up off those prices.
And back anything which is at a greater price than that.This way you are using bookmakers odds compilers as your own advisors and it allows for the V word.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHave you tried Gingertipster’s ‘table’?
Colin
Not my table mate, it has been around since betting began.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI don’t usually venture onto this board as the ‘experts’ usually give me a good kicking, as I am just an OAP
. However, these are the salient points to be considered when formulating a system:What to know: –
1. If the general approach is logical.
2. The pattern of past results.
3. The longest losing run.
4. The results to level stakes (or even better a level return).
5. The ‘bank’ required.RacingSystemBuilder would be your best point of call if you are serious in your intentions (I have on file a free ebook of theirs entitled ‘How to Become a Professional Gambler’, which is quite detailed as it runs to more than 50 pages – you are welcome to a copy if you send a PM with your email address). Also you can have some info from the late Professor Frank George (was Head of Cybernetics at Brunel University), which will assist with your evaluation and scoring dilemma. Most of my ‘serious’ stuff such as the Punters Price Guide on the Daily Lays and Plays is derived from it.
That’s right … another factor I take into account is:
– If the horse is a non-winner, it’s highly likely he always will be.
The concern I have is that there are too many interesting and worthwhile factors yet seem too intricate to adapt into a system.
Although I remain open minded about any method of selection, problems with systems for me……
Every horse is an individual – Systems often put blanket rules (filters) on animals of which no two are the same, Ginge’s point on temprement is a good example.
Random elements in a race – Can any back tested system replicate these factors eg…luck in running, horse transport problems, horse not in the mood, horse not off, watering, horse rearing in stalls etc..etc..etc, all these factors play a part in the outcome of races, does a system take these factors into account?
An over reliance on jockey,trainer,sire,going statistics etc. Quite often the raw ability of the horse and the relation of that ability to other runners in the race seems to be overlooked by systems. It is HORSE racing after all.
Systems need to be followed religiously. The day you miss could be the one day in the month that the system makes its profits.
I do think short term systems based on recent events can have creedence. For example following trainers, jockeys who’ve been in trouble with Shaftsbury Ave. recently is profitable this year and currently betting in running front runners, who can bag the stands rail on the straight course at Folkestone is doing well. These type of systems may not last long but are of much more interest than the tired old track,going,sire,trainer systems imo.
I would like to hear of anyone who makes 50+ grand on year using conventional type systems mentioned by Myles at the top of this thread.
A valuable part of any system is to never bet at SP. You may well have a marginally good system or selection process but if you are ‘on average’ taking a shorter price then you can get on Betfair (which you will be).
As to selecting horses, think of two things that you reckon influence the outcome of a race and then try to prove that they don’t. That’s a pretty good starting point I reckon.
Check out Winning Without Thinking by Nick Mordin. The appendices are papers of those doing this, or have done this, and their methods (or their methods circa 15 years ago at least). They include Bill Benter, who I’m led to believe made a little bit more than 50k a year from these methods.
For the less ambitious there’s the short term systems that CR mentions. Those who have been keeping an eagle eye on what’s happening in the racing world recently also shouldn’t be hard pressed to clear 50k a year from correctly interpreting certain conspiring that’s influencing results
Chapter 12 – winds of change blow your profits away – gives a good grounding here.Chapter 12 – winds of change blow your profits away – gives a good grounding here.
Shouldn’t that be "hose of clerk"!
Glenn, you must be on one hell of a losing streak at the moment cos you’ve been relentless in the last couple of weeks!!!!
i believe 95%are non winners and likely to remain so.SO you only have to focus on 5% of the registered and running thoroughbreds.At least that is what they say.So don’t back anything until after it has won once. Now most jockeys(i dont know the %)are also non winners so that should also eliminate another%of the winning horses in each race.If you stick with horses who have won running with jockeys who have won it helps especially in group races.Group one races depend more on jockeys than other races do. the reason being that to win a group one everything must go right and the better the jockey the better chance of that happening.See the 2000 and the 1000. I do not want to use names but read the reviews.I believe both races would have different outcomes if you switch jockeys around.By the way unless you have 99% of your life available for your project and 1%available for your mental health adviser i would say forget systems and enjoy the horses.The variables and imponderables will drive you to drink, if you have any money or time left.(my horse was so slow the jockey kept a diary)
i dont know about all these systems what happend to studying the form choose your horse stick a few quid on it and when it wins there is no better feeling, that you have put a bit of effort into your selection it seems all these systems are for ways in trying to win a large sum of money and not for the actual love of racing while having a small bet to make it a little more exciting if you really want to make money there is far easier ways to do so, and less complicated, but each to their own……..
P.S if any one does have a great system i’m all ears
I did think of one system that might work (but have done no research).
Take two of the big four bookmakers.
Make a note of the best early prices the two selected bookies are offering.
Take what you think is the bookies mark up off those prices.
And back anything which is at a greater price than that.This way you are using bookmakers odds compilers as your own advisors and it allows for the V word.
Anyone done any research on this type of thing? What do you think, could it work? Suppose this is the wrong place to ask such a question.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
. However, these are the salient points to be considered when formulating a system:
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