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Systems Advice Required

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  • #20997
    Oasisdreamer
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    • Total Posts 305

    I have been using HorseRaceBase recently to generate some trainer based systems using data from 2008 onwards. They look very profitable but I’d appreciate some feedback from the system "experts" on the forum.

    Remember from 2008 so just over 4 years worth of data I am analysing.

    1) What should be my minimum number of qualifiers (per trainer) in 4 years? For example a trainer may show a profit on my system but only had 4 runs in 4 years. I’m thinking my sample should be 10+ qualifiers per trainer in the period.

    2) What strike rate should I be looking for? I am thinking of ditching any trainer from my system if his SR is less than 10% over 4 years.

    3) What Profit (to a £1 stake) constitutes a solid system? Again 10 points and above may be what I stick to.

    Reducing my qualifiers (using the criteria above) reduces my overall profit significantly on the system but cuts out those trainers with either limited sample or poor strike rate or poor SP return (or a combination of all 3).

    The concern with removing these trainers is I potentially miss out on the big priced winners from trainers who produce the goods quietly but are missed by the majority.

    Should I just concern myself with the trainers who produce a good return from a good sample of qualifiers over the 4 years and ditch those trainers who’s winners could be considered as a "fluke" as opposed to a clear trend over the period in question?

    Hope all the above makes sense!!

    #391578
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    Hi OD…. I’m answering this cos our resident idiot (Billion) is away on holiday, if ever you want someone to spout bloody nonsense, then Bill’s the guy…. :lol: :lol: :lol: but I will answer some of your queries…. it aint anything from the trainer angle, this is just some basics that you must be aiming at…. if you reach these figures, you will make yourself a decent nest egg, if you surpass it, then the worlds your oyster….
    There’s a lot of plonkers about that tell you they can make 50 to 100pts a month, take my word for it, that’s utter trash, and I use the word trash because anything stronger gets bleeped out… your very basic aim should be to make a profit of 10pts a month with an ROI of about 15%…. if you can better these figures over a long period, don’t back them, SELL them, because your better than 99% of any of the other tipsters around…. I haven’t seen a bookmaker go out of business in the last 20 years, so they’re getting something right and the majority of us punters are on the ropes….. what I’m trying to say is that you need to give yourself a target of a MINIMUM of 10pts a month profit because anything less than that is not worth getting out of bed for…. if you bet at the £25 level, that gives you an income of £250 a month, if your making more than that, what are you doing on this forum???…..
    I consider myself a successful punter and I think that my income from betting (£400 a month) qualifies me as successful, but…. and it’s a huge BUT…. that’s from using 4 separate systems, that’s one on the horses, 2 on the dogs and one on the casinos…. so with that behind me, I think that I am pointing you in the right direction, by telling you that you should not reach for the moon, it’s too far…. just try to earn yourself 15pts a month without it costing you more than 100pts in bets, if you can do that, you WILL be successful…..
    :D :D :D :D

    MrE

    #391660
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    What MR E says in last post is something you should aim for as 10 – 15 % profit on outlay is something many would DIE FOR.

    As for TRAINERS and how well they may or maynot perform may depend on who they are as MANY OF THE VERY BEST TRAINERS may have a lot of differnet horses on a yearly BASIS and 1 year they may have a FANTASTIC SEASON followed by a poor 1, more so on the TURF.

    You may find some do very well at a certain distance compares to the other HIS OR HER HORSES RUN AT.

    Also you will find some trainers do a lot better on turf than A W or visa versa.

    If you wish to follow what you have FOUND OVER THE 4 YEAR PERIOD and find some that REALLY STAND OUT it would be wise to see how well they do each year and if this is similar all WELL AND GOOD but if its just 1 good year out of the 4 then you may well have probs.

    I’ve been doing an experiment somewhere else but int this case for the AW over a 15 month period but in this CASE TRAINER and spercific distanceS but only show those with a 20% s/r and in some cases their are those that have 25% – 30 % wih a lot of runners and winners but still show a 20 % loss so in those cases the vast majority must have POOR SP RETURNS or most are likel;y favs.

    You also say you find some with 4 winners over that period that have shown good profits but once again are thee winners in just 1 year.

    VARIAN [took over from J]arvis]
    AL ZAROONI

    Both thes had a fantastic season last year but if you look at their stats the TURF was a lot better and NOW AL ZAROONI who trains for GODOLFIN and this season horses from theirs stud and up to 300 horses may well have another great season but as with everything if he does the PRICES THEN START FALLING LIKE A BRICK IN WATER.

    Varian also 1 to keep an eye on this year but maybe better with age or distance related HORSES.

    Just becauase a trainer is the TOP at any course it maybe WISE to view the meetings THERE as you may find they have say 6 – 8 meeting a season [turf] but many of the winners could be EARLY season meetings mid or late and may have a bigger bearing than you may think.
    Overall STATS can be very misleading even though they may show profits but you may still be BACKING MANY HORSES that could be left out.

    Whatever you do I hope you find what you are looking for

    % MAN

    #391715
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    Hi Guys – thanks for the responses Mr E and % Man.

    Some good points you’ve made – Good consistent strike rate each month, 10%+ ROI, Ignore the shorties in the market.

    I see trainers as creatures of habit and they tend to follow the same patterns, some are good with sprinters, some do well at particular courses etc etc.

    I’ve taken a few trainer angles and ran them through HRB and identified the profitable trainers based on my criteria. They range from the likes of N Henderson down to the trainer with only a few qualifiers. In all respects the market underestimates the chances of their horse due to the angles I have chosen.

    Doing my review and based on your feedback I think my main concern is I’ve too many qualifiers and now I need to focus.

    I’m going to apply my 10% SR, 10Pts profit & 10+ qualifiers rules to my systems and chop out the "dodgy" qualifiers so I’m left with lower number of qualifiers BUT in theory they should be stronger bets as the sample is higher, the strike rate is good, and the profit is decent. I’m loathe to pass on the trainer with a 8% SR and 30 pts profit but if his strike rate is poor then he will be removed from the system.

    I’d rather have a steady tenner on 10 solid selections than a pound on 100 riskier selections. Imo it’s not how many winners you back, it’s the number of losers you don’t back that is key also.

    By the way I’m happy to share my angles by PM if anyone wants it. All I ask is they challenge my findings a little so it’s a win win deal for us both.

    #391771
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    Hi Guys – thanks for the responses Mr E and % Man.

    Some good points you’ve made – Good consistent strike rate each month, 10%+ ROI, Ignore the shorties in the market.

    I see trainers as creatures of habit and they tend to follow the same patterns, some are good with sprinters, some do well at particular courses etc etc.

    I’ve taken a few trainer angles and ran them through HRB and identified the profitable trainers based on my criteria. They range from the likes of N Henderson down to the trainer with only a few qualifiers. In all respects the market underestimates the chances of their horse due to the angles I have chosen.

    Doing my review and based on your feedback I think my main concern is I’ve too many qualifiers and now I need to focus.

    I’m going to apply my 10% SR, 10Pts profit & 10+ qualifiers rules to my systems and chop out the "dodgy" qualifiers so I’m left with lower number of qualifiers BUT in theory they should be stronger bets as the sample is higher, the strike rate is good, and the profit is decent. I’m loathe to pass on the trainer with a 8% SR and 30 pts profit but if his strike rate is poor then he will be removed from the system.

    I’d rather have a steady tenner on 10 solid selections than a pound on 100 riskier selections. Imo it’s not how many winners you back, it’s the number of losers you don’t back that is key also.

    By the way I’m happy to share my angles by PM if anyone wants it. All I ask is they challenge my findings a little so it’s a win win deal for us both.

    Im sorry but you say you are going to apply your 10 % s/rate to YOUR selection process and have a tenner on a solid selections which is an unbelievable statement as even a 30% s/r 1 could not say is a SOLID SELECTION.

    Its possable to have a 70 % s/rate and still make a loss and if you found 1 they would be 1-3 to 1/10 on shots.

    Just ask yourself if you are using what you have stated HOW MANY LOSERS YOU WILL HAVE with such a strike rate

    In noway am I having a go at you but it just does not make sence from what you are saying.

    If I’m reading it wrong I apologise in advance.

    % MAN

    #391942
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    Hi % Man – no need to apologise I’m happy to have my thinking challenged!

    When I used the word SOLID I was meaning some substance (based on historical strike rate and no of qualifiers) behind my selections. I take your point that 10% SR could be too low but then again if my analysis is identifying horses 10/1+ then surely price and strike rate need to be considered alongside each other?

    I’m looking to identify trainer patterns that fall under the radar and hence the price leads to a profit. I totally agree if my SR is 10% and the average price is 5/1 then I am stuffed!

    If I didn’t make it clear I’m looking at a portfolio of trainers, some will have strike rates of say 50% but we both know that is generally reflected in the price of their horses and the ROI.

    For instance if I can find a portfolio of trainers that have a strike rate of say 20% and an average price of 6/1 when they step their 2yos up to a 7f/mile I will be in profit won’t I?

    No doubt the dreaded losing run will come along but with a number of systems working alongside each other then I’d confident they can sustain each other.

    Thanks for the input – if I can tighten up my thinking then it’s time well spent.

    #392005
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    Hi % Man – no need to apologise I’m happy to have my thinking challenged!

    When I used the word SOLID I was meaning some substance (based on historical strike rate and no of qualifiers) behind my selections. I take your point that 10% SR could be too low but then again if my analysis is identifying horses 10/1+ then surely price and strike rate need to be considered alongside each other?

    I’m looking to identify trainer patterns that fall under the radar and hence the price leads to a profit. I totally agree if my SR is 10% and the average price is 5/1 then I am stuffed!

    If I didn’t make it clear I’m looking at a portfolio of trainers, some will have strike rates of say 50% but we both know that is generally reflected in the price of their horses and the ROI.

    For instance if I can find a portfolio of trainers that have a strike rate of say 20% and an average price of 6/1 when they step their 2yos up to a 7f/mile I will be in profit won’t I?

    No doubt the dreaded losing run will come along but with a number of systems working alongside each other then I’d confident they can sustain each other.

    Thanks for the input – if I can tighten up my thinking then it’s time well spent.

    I wish you all the best with this but I think you may have a lot of work on your hands and NO DOUBT SOME TRAINERS DO VERY WELL at spercific distances and if you can latch onto them you could do really well.

    2 YEARS AGO i DID SOMETHING VERY SIMILAR AND FOUND 14 TRAINERS FOR THE FLAT [TURF] and my only mistake was I started it to late in the season but some made FATASTIC PROFITS.

    Just go into the STATS on RACING POST WEB SITE and look at those 2 I MENTIONED and basically to NEW TRAINERS who did exceptionally well and 1 was over 100 pts up to 1 pt bets over the season but when you look at is AW RUNS not very good at all

    But if memory serves me correctly most of the GOOD STATS for trainers that do WELL IS AGE RELATED or spercific distances WERE profits are made as well as the time of the season.

    Thiers nothing stopping you paper trading to see how you get on before parting with any money.

    I just think its not as easy as you may thimk but thats me.

    % MAN

    #392011
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    Please PM me as I maybe able to show you something of mine that works of TRAINERS but in the case the A W AS IT MIGHT GIVE YOU AN INSIGHT OF WHAT TO EXPEXT if you wish to do so.

    % MAN

    #392533
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    % Man – PM sent to you.

    Cheers,
    OD.

    #392672
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    % Man – PM sent to you.

    Cheers,
    OD.

    Ive replied

    % MAN

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