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GMOOH is clearly a useful horse but he was very well handicapped when winning the Tote Trophy, running off a mark of just 135. He’s clearly good and could be much better than that, but he’ll have to be and who’s to say Dunguib wouldn’t have done the same thing off even a higher mark??
Oscar Whisky could be the one for me.
Dunguib should win if any thing above 60% lol
Bellvano will fly the mcmanus flag and will fill the places with oscar whiskey.
Dunguib
Oscar Whiskey
BlackstairsMountainThe only way Dunguib will lose is if he falls imo. We have not even seen the best out of him. Can’t have Menorah and Bellvano. Was very impressed with Get me out of here’s performance in the RP trophy.
Dunguib is going to step out of Novice Company at Punchestown and take a bite at the seasoned campaigners. That may be some cracker if Hurricane Fly comes back for that
To this point GMOOH has proved himself a quality handicapper and nothing else. It was a quality performance in winning in Newbury but until he wins a grade one contest then that is all he can really be called. Dunguib has shown what he can do against handicappers stuffing Puyol who went on to win the most competitive hurdle(MCR)in Ireland and against better than decent horses i.e. Some Present, Sweeps Hill. Should he be 4/5 well definitely for the simple reason that im excited about seeing potentially the best hurdler that i have ever seen. If he wins by 10 lengths its for the benefit of jumps racing and if he loses then he can always go the handicapping route:)
GMOOH might have not won a a G1 but I would be pretty sure if Sweeps Hill, Some Present and Puyol would have ran in the Totesport they’d all get a severe wallaoping.
There seems to be some very good unexposed types in this race who could be anything, Dan Breen and Oscar Whisky could be anything. Might as well back against Dunguib with Paddy Power’s ridicuolus offer.
Will be backing GMOOH with Paddypowers. Might have a bit on Oscar Whiskey or Blackstairsmountain too. If Dunguib goes 6/4 I will lump on
- Total Posts 17716
SUPREME NOVICE
110 Getmeoutofhere
104 Dunguib
102 Manyriverstocross
96 Puyol
95 Rite Of Passage
93 Menorah
92 Salden Licht
90 Pepe Simo
89 Peddlers Cross
88 Flat Out
87 Oscar Wiskey
83 Bellvano
83 General Miller
78 Dan Breen
75 Ghizao
72 Loosen My Load
68 Blackstairmountain
65 Notus De La Tour
64 Morning SupremeBETTING
Dunguib (4/5) , Get Me Out Of Here (8) , Blackstairmountain (12) , Menorah (12) , Oscar Whisky (12) , Rite Of Passage (14) , Bellvano (20) , Flat Out (25) , Peddlers Cross (25) , Dan Breen (33) , General Miller (33) , Loosen My Load (33) , Morning Supreme (33) , Pepe Simo (33) , Ghizao (40) , Manyriverstocross (40) , Notus De La Tour (50) , Puyol (50) , Salden Licht (50)
VERDICT
The Irish superstar Dunguib is expected to get the show underway in scintillating fashion, not having to be extended in Ireland during the season yet putting up some impressive times but at 4/5 he is worth opposing especially with Jonjo O’Neill’s unbeaten Get Me Out Of Here who should not be taken lightly after his exploits at Newbury and has seriously worked his way into the equation although if the ground became too testing he would be up against it.
Tom Segal’s Blackstairmountain being supported into freakishly short odds with no serious evidence to suggest he can land this, Rite of Passage looks like going for the Neptune and Puyol who will go for the County Hurdle which leaves us with Manyriverstocross who is a staggering 40-1 with most firms, Alan King fancies this horse a lot who has strong experience on the flat and has transferred over to hurdles very well picking up a Group 2 Noivce. Running here will mean taking on Get Me Out Of Here again which Alan King may refuse that task and understudy theres nothing to suggest he should over turn the form although there looks like a few dropping out of the race and he ran well behind him at Newbury, Cheltenham does spring a surprise and he’s more than capable of running into the places or hopefully captialisng on errors to win which would be profitable at 40-1.
BETS
Manyriverstocross 40-1 EW
Getmeoutofhere 8-1 EWI have just watched Dunguib’s last run, again. I cannot believe how bad his jumping was.
I remember thinking at the time, when watching it on ATR, that it wasn’t good, but it was awful.
He will have to improve that next week, otherwise, he won’t get round.
Manyrivers needs further hence not running.
Dunguib would have won the Totesport even easier it wasn’t a very good race.
I think too much is being made of Dunguib’s jumping at this stage. He was clumsy and awkward at some of his flights in the Deloitte but if you watch closely, he never really loses ground at any obstacle and contray to popular belief they did go a proper gallop in dead ground. His jumping in the Royal Bond and at Punchestown and Galway beforehand was acceptable for a novice.
He was ridden a bit more handily in those contests and he jumped better. Brian wanted to get him relaxed at Leopardstown and the trouble was that he just fell asleep out the back behind other horses. When he gave him a squeeze going down to the last he pinged it. They’ll set him racing earlier at Cheltenham and I’d be very surprised if his jumping wasn’t markedly better. The better ground will also benefit him. RTÉ showed some great slow-mo shots of him at Leopardstown and he was daisy cutting while everything else around him had a pronounced round knee action. Yielding ground is going to be perfect for him.
Obviously every aspect of an odds-on favourite at Cheltenham is going to be scrutinized in detail but surely there’s a danger of reading too much into it? Both Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here made far worse mistakes at the last flight in their last races but I don’t see too many people questioning their jumping.
If Dunguib touches odds-against on course it will be the bet of the festival. They’ve only taken the handbrake off on this fellow twice (Cheltenham and Punchestown) last year and look at the response. He is most definitely not another Cousin Vinny or Sweet Wake. His class will prevail even if he is not the most natural over timber. He would have murdered Ronaldo Des Mottes getting 7lbs from him. Look at what he did to the subsequent Pierse winner at Punchestown.
Agreed, I would be surprised if he makes any mistakes in the better ground and with the length of the run in I’d still be confident if he hit the last and was 3 lengths down to any of these. All good horses, some brilliant, but Dunguib is in a different world.
Although I have backed Dunguib ante-post, there are no guarantees in racing, especially in National Hunt, so I would refrain using terms like "a shoe-in" myself!
Perhaps a silly question, but i’ll ask anyway –
Why has Dunguib got no official rating over hurdles as yet (according to the RP anyway)? Because of the amount of horses entered not having an OR, how is who makes the cut decided?
He doesn’t have a rating because he has yet to run in a handicap
AFAIK all horses are assessed by the official handicapper (but the ratings are not necessarily published) and this assessment is used to determine who makes the cut and who doesn’t.
I’m fairly sure that this happens in the Champion Bumper almost every year
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