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Celtic Bookmakers over here are already paying out all ante-post bets on Dunguib
Good man Ivan Yeates!
I availed of that too! Im presuming that they didnt have too much of a payout as they were always fairly skinny on Dunguib and i’d say it was only a few idiots like me that backed it with them
Paddy Power refunding all losing win bets if Dunguib wins
Does this apply to ante-post bets too, or just on the day? I took 14/1 about Get Me Out of Here with PP right after the Totesport, and would ove to think it’s a bet to nothing.
I was thinking of going in on the same horse with pP at 10s because of this concession – more than generous I think.
Maybe they’ve got wind of a change of thinking from connecions? If Dunguib goes for the Champion they’ll have taken a pile of win money on the Supreme and no refunds to issue?
They opened a book on The Foxhunters around the time An Siorrac was injured offering a riiculously generous 3-1 on a horse that was likely to have started long odds on if he showed up on the day?
Conspiracy theory? Or Not?
Maybe they’ve got wind of a change of thinking from connecions? If Dunguib goes for the Champion they’ll have taken a pile of win money on the Supreme and no refunds to issue?
They opened a book on The Foxhunters around the time An Siorrac was injured offering a riiculously generous 3-1 on a horse that was likely to have started long odds on if he showed up on the day?
Conspiracy theory? Or Not?
That doesnt make sense because if he does go for the champion then all the other horses will more than half in price, leaving them with large liabilities from bets on say Blackstairmountain at 14/1.
No, its just a publicity stunt. They are sure Dunguib will win, are trying to minimise their takings on him, and are encouraging people to open accounts and continue to bet with them for the rest of the festival.
Maybe they’ve got wind of a change of thinking from connecions? If Dunguib goes for the Champion they’ll have taken a pile of win money on the Supreme and no refunds to issue?
They opened a book on The Foxhunters around the time An Siorrac was injured offering a riiculously generous 3-1 on a horse that was likely to have started long odds on if he showed up on the day?
Conspiracy theory? Or Not?
That doesnt make sense because if he does go for the champion then all the other horses will more than half in price, leaving them with large liabilities from bets on say Blackstairmountain at 14/1.
No, its just a publicity stunt. They are sure Dunguib will win, are trying to minimise their takings on him, and are encouraging people to open accounts and continue to bet with them for the rest of the festival.
Its maximum £200 refund anyway so rules out the big punters.
The only horse I really like in this race is Henry De Bromhead’s Loosen My Load, but looks unsure to take his place on the exchanges. Have had a small go on Willy Mullins horse Flat Out, as have been watching him being supported for some time now but generally he is not the sort I would usually go for in this race. Although I dont really see any of the horses I would usually for in this race at the head of affairs, and think I will pick one closer to the time. Dunguib isnt the sort I would usually go for in this race though and I am quite keen to take him on as personally think he looks the most likely of the shorties to be overturned this year.
That doesnt make sense because if he does go for the champion then all the other horses will more than half in price, leaving them with large liabilities from bets on say Blackstairmountain at 14/1.
But only one horse can win and it’ll be wide open without Dunguib, think of all the place money they’ll save on the race if all the punters lump on win only…a mug’s bet in my opinion in a race like this.
No, its just a publicity stunt. They are sure Dunguib will win, are trying to minimise their takings on him, and are encouraging people to open accounts and continue to bet with them for the rest of the festival.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
I backed Dunguib (early prices at 7/1) in last year’s bumper. Been impressed (as we all have) with his form and way he powers through on the bridle this season. If doing the same at Cheltenham will be very difficult, if not impossible to beat. However, he is not a fluent jumper yet, and a big field can extenuate jumping problems. Hasn’t ever really looked like falling, but there’s a big chance of one or two bad mistakes here, particularly with (still) an inexperienced jockey on board. Having said all that, 4/5 might be worth taking on the day if still available.
With a short priced favourite it often makes for a good each way race.Get Me Out Of Here’s form (imo) has been under-estimated. I was at Newbury for the Totesport Trophy. Where I stood, the turn of foot he showed was electrifying. Did suffer an over-reach there, blood coming from a leg clearly visible in winners enclosure, probably from the mistake at the last. Won with quite a bit more in hand than distances suggest. Usually a very good jumper and has experience (over hurdles) in a large field. As long as he’s over the injury looks nailed on to be in the frame. Have been waiting for signs about the likely target / wellbeing. County and Neptunes came under consideration. Even talk of supplementing for the Champion. But another McManus Supreme possible with good form, Bellvano has recently gone for a walk in the market out to 40/1. Heard Nicky Henderson’s reportedly said the County is being considered for that horse. GMOOH himself is barely available at better than bookmakers top price, which also indicates a probable runner. Likely ride of AP McCoy which is always a bonus, particularly against inexperienced jockeys.
Menorah is interesting, Johnson went too fast, too soon at Ascot. Gave 10lbs to the winner Lush Life who came from a long way back. Even so, would’ve won but for another jockey error, taking it too easy coming in to the last (mistake) and unable to recover in time. On penultimate start won a novice hurdle at Kempton. Beat Bellvano 12 lengths getting 3lbs in a time faster than Go Native’s Christmas Hurdle.
Oscar Whisky, perhaps the other one with a significant chance. Winner of three races at odds-on this term for Nicky Henderson. Only asked to do just enough last time at Kempton. Yet to take on anything like the quality of Dunguib, Get Me Out Of Here or Menorah, but that’s not to say he can’t.
11 points each way @ 10/1 (WH)
Get Me Out Of Here
Value Is EverythingNow Dunguib has been confirmed a definite runner isn’t it time we had a market without the favourite?
It’s absolutely crazy thinking this is a one horse race,there are plenty of others in with a good chance of upsetting the favourite.
Menorah will be a better horse on the day,Mr Hobbs was very concerned with the ground at Ascot and he would have won had he not pecked at the last.
The most likely,in my opinion,to shake him up will be Oscar Whiskey,still very good value.
Dunguib is the one to beat,we all know that.
But thinking he’s already past the post is a very dangerous,and silly business.It’s absolutely crazy thinking this is a one horse race,there are plenty of others in with a good chance of upsetting the favourite.
Menorah will be a better horse on the day,Mr Hobbs was very concerned with the ground at Ascot and he would have won had he not pecked at the last.
The most likely,in my opinion,to shake him up will be Oscar Whiskey,still very good value.
Dunguib is the one to beat,we all know that.
But thinking he’s already past the post is a very dangerous,and silly business.I doubt very much that there is anything that can beat Dunguib except himself. I believe that he was the best bumper horse I have ever seen and to think that really good horses like luska lad were mocked by him is incredible considering what he has gone on to achieve. However, Dunguib does pull much too hard for his own good and he is not the best jumper. A bit of a head case (part of the reason you havent seen a change of jockey) is what you hear from the stable but with so much engine it hasn’t stopped him.
SHL
Every year hotpots get turned over and whilst Dunguib was very impressive the last day at Leopardstown he hurdled averagely and I can’t help but think he’s been cantering over moderate animals.
I agree with Gingertipster that GMooH was incredibly impressive off a fast pace in the Tote Gold Trophy; almost down at the last and then cruising past Ronaldo des Mottes on the run-in – this was the best novice hurdling performance I have seen this season.
After watching Dunguib on the TV the other week racing in Ireland he won’t get away with jumping like he did the other week around Cheltenham. It’s Get Me Out of Here for me, if he runs in this race. NR No bet now available at most bookies on this race.
I know it is a prestigous race with a great roll call of winners and an exalted place in the calendar and recent heroics from good horses to maintain its aura but this years renewal of the Totesport Hurdle was awful…wasn’t it?
Ronaldo Des Mottes is hardly Rooster Booster, Manyriverstocross is a staying novice running over the minimum trip, Mamlook is a flat stayer who is paceless at two miles, Oldrik is an old dog…etc. etc.In the context of the race …good effort by GMOOH, in the context of Cheltenham I think he has everything to prove
GMOOH is a handicapper pure and simple. Dunguibs jumping isnt up to scratch for a SN. General Miller way over priced @ 33s..
Dunguib is ridiculously superior to his rivals. Brushing through/hitting the top of a few hurdles won’t change a thing. With a clean round he’s a 12L winner.
GMOOH is a handicapper pure and simple. Dunguibs jumping isnt up to scratch for a SN. General Miller way over priced @ 33s..
How can a novice, undefeated in four hurdles outings, winning the most valuable handicp hurdle in the UK in process, be dismissed as "a handicapper pure and simple"?
GMOOH remains totally unexposed after Newbury, and already has alreaady shown form good enough to win a Supreme Novices. He might not be good enough to beat Dunguib, but to suggest he has reached the end of his talent after only four hurdles outings, is patent nonsense.
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