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I think Forpadytheplasterer is one of those who doesn’t find much off the bridle, so whether he’ll ever win anything but a weak grade 1 is debateable. But I don’t see him as a 3m horse, not at cheltenham pace as he struggled getting home in the Ballymore last year. I did like What a Friend, but think his form does not justify his price and is one to be taking on. Will wait for nearer to day to say with what, but do like Gone for Lunch’s form so far.
Yes, Gone to Lunch makes some appeal to me, MCFC Stan. But I find I am getting to him more by default than anything. There are so many question marks about each of the likely contenders. If there is a potential Gold Cup winner of the future in the current RSA entries, it eludes me at present.
There was quite good value I think in Casey Jones when trading around 70s on the exchanges a few weeks ago, but his current odds around 20/1 are probably no better than a fairly accurate reflection of his chances. He would benefit from a bit better ground than he has been running on over winter and he is a kind of underestimated horse, but hard to imagine he has the quite the class of recent RSA winners, though it might just be a weak renewal this time.
Lightning Strike comes into it again now, as following his win today it looks like the RSA is the target. He might be one to put a line through straight away, given his jumping was pretty sketchy in his first two tries over fences and also some doubt about his stamina for the trip. Then again, between the fences there won’t be many better horses in the race and with the possibility of some improvement in his jumping he could still be one to consider at a big enough price. Lodge Lane’s form was reasonable enough earlier in the season, but his Cheltenham record is poor and his latest run concerning.
So I find I am kind of only seeing speculative punts for this race. Nothing really appeals yet as a solid favourite in my assessment. If I had to pick one to place, it would probably be What A Friend, but not much form to go on and we don’t know how well he will jump in a bigger field and where the pace might be a bit stronger than he has faced so far. Gone to Lunch ought to get the trip well enough and that is always worth a few brownie points in the RSA.
There are two who stand out a bit for me: Cooldine, and Carruthers, who I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of by a long chalk.
He disappointed at Chelters last year I know, and maybe the course doesn’t "agree with him", but I think it may have come a bit too soon for him, or the evidently big occasion spooked him. Who knows? But he seemed well worth a punt on at the prices that were offered earlier.
I also have a little on Chief Dan at a big price, and in the NHNC, bt I think he’s also entered for another race, as well. Not that I’d personally fancy him to beat my favourite two – though I want to watch the replay.
No he won’t, GWILSON77. Man, I’d love to be your ante-post bookie.
Trust me my old adversary you would have been out of business by now,
we obviously disagree big time on Albertas and Forpady! heres one that will knock you out "My Will" for the Williiam hill trophy at 20/1, can you match that with something yourself or do you just like to dissagree with me?They mentioned the Jewson for the Chief; I would, and probably will follow this horse off a cliff…..
They are saying Cheltenham isn’t the be all and end all for Chief Dan George and given he’s already won a grade 1 round there, it wouldn’t surprise me if they waited for Aintree, it means they could get another run into him or just keep him fresher for it.
I do like Carruthers, but will he be allowed to dominate like he seemingly has to. He couldn’t last year and ran very disappointingly which has to be the fear again.I thought I read one of his connections syaing that he didn’t have to lead. I hope so, but I’m not sure. I’ll have to have a bob on him in the Jewsons, but maybe Aintree makes more sense for the reasons you cite.
Incidentally I think he may actually be named after a living native American chief. I must Google the name.
Ruby looks set to ride Cooldine over What A Friend. He will probably go off favourite now.
Surely Chief Dan George is too slow for the Jewson.
He was getting badly outpaced in slowly-run 3-mile hurdles last season!
Ruby looks set to ride Cooldine over What A Friend. He will probably go off favourite now.
I’m glad to be honest I think Sam suits What A Friend and Ruby hasn’t ridden the horse over fences. Ruby rode Cooldine to win a Grade 1 last time so its not surprising he’s chosen to stick with the horse he knows best.
Wouldn’t worry me one bit as this is Ruby at his best. He has a long relationship with Cooldine many times and Sam has been riding What a Friend successfully this season.
I doubt if it has much to do with which one Ruby thinks will win, it’s probably more a case of showing his gratitude to Cooldine’s connections and being the nice guy he is by not standing on Sam’s toes.
Whatsmore, so much for those who said Sam was on hs way out.
Don’t know that I would put Sam up on any horse before Ruby though.
Wouldn’t worry me one bit as this is Ruby at his best. He has a long relationship with Cooldine many times and Sam has been riding What a Friend successfully this season.
I doubt if it has much to do with which one Ruby thinks will win, it’s probably more a case of showing his gratitude to Cooldine’s connections and being the nice guy he is by not standing on Sam’s toes.
Whatsmore, so much for those who said Sam was on hs way out.
Don’t know that I would put Sam up on any horse before Ruby though.
I’m not sure its a case of Ruby trying to be nice. He has an association with Cooldine. He knows the horse and has got a feel of what he can do over fences and conditions of the race should suit.
What A Friend on the other hand Ruby hasn’t ridden over fences nor over a trip of further than 21 furlongs so he has no idea of the feel he gives as a staying chaser.
Its the sensible decision for Ruby.
Sensible decision by Ruby. This will help the price for What a Friend.
But still have a feeling that it’s the year of a big price winner. Can’t spot it yet. I have heard words about casey jones among others.
The Young Fella, you may be right, but can you be sure Chief Dan was aimed at that race? I think whatever race he’s aimed at, it will have been a long-term plan.
He beat Wichita Lineman by 4 lengths in 2007, when he won an Aintree Grade 1 novices chase, and Massini’ Maguire by much more – and he’s as low as 10/1, third favourite for the Jewson’s, with a few bookies; and by more than that, I think, the next year in the World Hurdle, when they were both out of the money.
I believe Wichita Lineman is fancied for one of the Cheltenham races, though not by me. I seem to have always bet on him when he got beaten – though he does seem to be resurgent. Maybe I should check out his race/s again.
Maybe he’s "gone", but maybe he isn’t. Maybe he’s improved out of all likely expectations. My main bets, as I mentioned earlier, are Carruthers and Cooldine, but at the prices on offer, I’ll probably have a small "saver".
If there is a horse tailor made for the Arkle its Padydeplasterer a stiff 2m will suit him down to the ground and looks every inch a chaser currently 20/1 for the race looks tempting very lightly raced individual who can only improve!
He doesn’t have an earthly based on both his poorish performance in March and his curates egg of a chase debut last week. He may make the grade in time, but I reckon it will be as a handicapper over two and a half miles. He represents zero value for the Arkle at the moment.
The Ante-post king sits proud on his throne!
Makes Cooldine’s form look better though its difficult to evaluate over different trips. Still happy to be on What A Friend but Cooldine scares me.
Forpadydeplasterer doesn’t appear to be in the same league as either I’msingingtheblues or Tatenen at the moment, and if he’s as short as 20/1 then he has to be left well alone. His chasing debut was nothing short of disasterous for a horse so well fancied in ante-post markets, and I can’t see him being top class over any trip, let alone two miles.
Pure Equitrack!
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