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Summer Plate 2009

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Summer Plate 2009

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  • #12095
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6964

    This looks a hard renewal, I reckon, but maybe some of these trends can be exploited to a greater or lesser extent. From 11 runnings since 1998;

    – only 2 renewals have gone to horses making all. Tell Henry and Oniz Tiptoes have that statistic to overcome,

    – horses rated 125 or above have completely filled the frame in 5 of the last 6 runnings, which would count against former winner Iron Man despite his 123 being 11lb lower than when winning two years ago,

    – 10 out of 11 runnings have seen at least one horse carrying 11st 9lbs or more make the frame, but nothing has ever won carrying more than 11st 3lbs. There is a good chance that may change today with 11 out of 16 runners carrying 11st 4lbs or upwards, though,

    – at least one horse sent off at 16-1 or bigger has made the frame 8 times out of 11, although only 4 have won,

    – only one winner has had as few as 5 previous outings over fences before winning the Plate. King Troy (5), Postmaster (5), Nostringsattached (5) are in the same camp this time,

    – in-running (p)layers should note that only one winner has ever overcome a jumping error made any earlier than the final fence,

    Nelson’s Spice would have been among the market leaders for the Listed 32Red.com Chase over this C&D last September but for missing the cut by one, and his winning reappearance at Aintree last month looked another step forward. My preference for him is very, very marginal, though. King Troy and Always Waining are too high in both weights and ratings to win judged on prevailing trends, but I could see either placing.

    Jeremy
    (graysonscolumn)

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #240033
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    So in short Jeremey you are saying Jonjo’s is a stonewall certainty? :wink:

    #240042
    Gazs Way De Solzen
    Member
    • Total Posts 2440

    McCoy again getting a horse up that looked absolutely stuffed.

    #240151
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    horses rated 125 or above have completely filled the frame in 5 of the last 6 runnings, which would count against former winner Iron Man despite his 123 being 11lb lower than when winning two years ago,

    Does this mean that stats punters would actually have fancied Iron Man more if he was carrying at least an extra 2 lb? Crazy logic.

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