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What does the above mean? Is Spinter Sacre already first past the post barring an unexpected accident or is this just stupid pre-race talk? Don’t we know how good SS really is when he is healthy? I mean we are not talking about an unexposed dark horse or a potential improver. We are talking about the highest rated chaser for decades. This sounds to me a bit like Mrs Harrington telling us that Faugheen is the one to beat in the CH.
I would expect NH to run him only when he is at least 100% fit. So what this means is pretty much obvious. Boy, I never thought that he would have an “outstandingly good chance” in the CC.
Thanks Nicky and Barry!!!Henderson in the same conversation also said “..but we can’t say he is back to his immortal, unbeatable old self. That probably won’t happen, but we’re pretty pleased with where we are”
This would not fill me with confidence at all, and i think anyone taking the current price on him is bonkers. Even the trainer admitted he has not returned to his best and probably never will, I can’t see him winning the QM champion chase ever again.“Outstandingly good chance” means different things to different people. Interestingly, the use of “good” is imo a negative. If Sprinter Sacre had been showing all of his old sparkle, had Henderson thought him still capable of the type of form that saw a rating best jumper since Arkle – “good” would not come in to it. Taken with the whole Henderson quote it (to me) means Sprinter Sacre is one of four (possibly five) with a similar chance. On genuinely good imo probably stands marginally the best of those five… “Outstandingly good”.
Market support is probably more to do with the weather forcast than anything else. Noticed quite a few good ground horses have been backed today.
Value Is EverythingDoes he have to be at his 100% best to win it, or would 95% do?
I'd like to live in a place where they cordon off swans...Does he have to be at his 100% best to win it, or would 95% do?
Exactly BH, Sprinter Sacre can run a stone below his very best and still win. However, when calculating Sprinter’s chance next week his “best” form has next to nothing to do with his 2015 chance. Because there is no way he’s going to be at his very best, what matters is the form Sprinter is NOW capable of. So now has an “outstandingly good” chance and not “excellent” or “outstanding”. ie True chance is somewhere between 33% and 20%, not (as it would’ve been had he been still capable of his very best) between 66% and 80%.
Value Is EverythingDoes he have to be at his 100% best to win it, or would 95% do?
“Outstandingly good chance” means different things to different people. Interestingly, the use of “good” is imo a negative. If Sprinter Sacre had been showing all of his old sparkle, had Henderson thought him still capable of the type of form that saw a rating best jumper since Arkle – “good” would not come in to it. Taken with the whole Henderson quote it (to me) means Sprinter Sacre is one of four (possibly five) with a similar chance. On genuinely good imo probably stands marginally the best of those five… “Outstandingly good”.
Market support is probably more to do with the weather forcast than anything else. Noticed quite a few good ground horses have been backed today.
Although thats partly his nature., I think Outstandingly Good is very bullish in this context. Geraghty in particular is very confident although he is that sort of fellow. I always felt he was a little over rated up there in the 180s but certainly a brilliant horse and I think a contrarian nature could steer someone very wrong on this. Laying 3/1 or 5/2 would be a brave brave move.
SHL
Whether Sprinter Sacre can reverse form with Dodging Bullets is already a big enough question without worrying about the rest of the field.
Sprinter Sacre’s current rating of 188 is clearly nonsense. If we accept that Dodging Bullets improved 6lbs in beating the Henderson horse that still leaves 17 lbs between them on the ratings. The third horse Twinlight has run like a drain twice since, making his own handicap hike look a bit ropey to me anyway. Somersby set off at a suicidal lick, made some mistakes and faded away leaving Twinlight to take the bronze medal.
For me there’s a big question as to how much ability Sprinter Sacre actually showed and that leaves both horses potentially a fair bit behind Sire De Grugy if he is back to his best.
I’d guesstimate that Sprinter Sacre needs to find more than 10% improvement on his first run back and it is a moot point how short of his best he was left last time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That means you think SS needs to improve more than a stone
Have any of his rivals hit such a mark ? No
That means you think SS needs to improve more than a stone
Have any of his rivals hit such a mark ? No
His 188 mark means nothing for now. He clearly didn’t run remotely near it last time, for if he had he would have won easily.
Sprinter Sacre was billed as a good thing by many people last time he ran, and it was largely based on the 188 rating. He went off 4/6 Fav and his rating didn’t come to his rescue as he was ultimately held with a degree of comfort by the younger, improving horse.
Was The Clarence House a good race? I have noted that the third horse Twinlight has been disappointing twice since and there is little to suggest that he ran to his career best effort just because he was running behind Sprinter Sacre.
You can argue that a 5% improvement will see him turn it around with Dodging Bullets but some will believe the younger horse capable of holding him again. Even if the 5% improvement is sufficient to reverse placings, there’s no guarantee that it is going to be enough to beat the other top contenders.
Some Sprinter Sacre fans seem to think he’s going to come on a ton for the race but others have opined that he was pretty fit after his lay-off.
5/2 seems short enough for me with all things considered.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
But you said he needs more than 10% improvement, which takes him over the 180 mark ( based on the ratings given for Ascot ) and beyond anything his rivals have achieved
I expect a stone improvement and think it will be enough
IMO SS wont make it, Henderson wont run him if hes bleeding when put under pressure and and possibly changed his training regime because of the bleed..He’ll see that at home and wont risk him..Or he will risk him and he do an Istabraq and be pulled up in front of the stands..
But you said he needs more than 10% improvement, which takes him over the 180 mark ( based on the ratings given for Ascot ) and beyond anything his rivals have achieved
I expect a stone improvement and think it will be enough
I am not sure what you are driving at here.
I have explained that some people might consider 5% improvement to be enough but that I have my doubts. I have explained my doubts about how good The Clarence House form actually is and, it is for the reasons given, that my personal opinion is that he’ll need to improve 10% to win the race.
Is Dodging Bullets really a 171 rated horse? If we take a more cautious view and say he was the 165 rated horse he came into the race as, it leaves Sprinter Sacre potentially running further short of his 188 rating than the official ratings suggest.
The proof will be in how they perform in the big one, but when betting now we are guessing to some extent how near he was to the top of his game in The Clarence House.
You have said you think Sprinter Sacre will improve a stone and that it will be good enough. You might be right on both counts. However, we then have to accept that Nicky Henderson put Sprinter Sacre out there a full stone short of what the horse is now capable of and that may be hard to believe for some people.
ps Another concern for me would be the much noted poor performance of the Henderson stable with his chasing team this year. The overall strike rate has been OK but the chasing side has not kept its end up. I think every negative angle has to be considered when taking relatively short odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What I hate so much about the entire Sprinter Sacre story is that you don’t have any reliable information regarding the horse. You can’t believe what the trainer says, you can’t expect him to improve to his old best and not bleed at the same time, you just have to guess. Which is quite a shame for a race of this calibre. The option to take him out of the race though, is still a very possible one in my opinion.
There is over a week to go… And looking at the trainer form this season there isn’t much to suggest that the stable is back in full swing.
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