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A fast pace is what swings me about Straw Bear and if one race is fast it’s the CH. They go one helluva clip when they get going even when it’s a slow early pace………if you look back to when Noland beat him he never saw the trip out according to his jockey and that wasn’t a CH. Noland wouldn’t be sighted in the Champion as he’s a waiting in the wings chaser not a 2m hurdler. Straw Bear’s other efforts at Cheltenham were abysmal and chances are he won’t’ even run if he is well beaten in his next race. You need to say further than 2 miles to win a champion and Straw Bear simply does not IMO
I think we will see a typical strong even pace this year unlike last year……..With the likes of Katchit in the race who will stay ever yard of the trip and will be trying to slip them coming down the hill Straw Bear IMO will be left for dead. as much as I dislike professional loser Afsoun, the dog that he is, he could be a horse who benefits from a strong even pace…….they quickened up suddenly and left him standing last year, but he was running on better than any at the death……..I think it’s easier to Eliminate horses that you think won’t win that pick the winner……….One thing I am certain of is I won’t back Sublimity if he comes of the bridle even Harchibald would find more IMO….I simply do not like the horse at all and think he was handed it on a plate last year……….Katchit EW is the best alternative to a dodgy fav I can find.
, but to rule in or out any particular performance from him is a bit naive surely?
Clivex, maybe i’m misunderstanding the above, but you seem to be saying you cannot make an assessment and anyone who does is bit naive
my point was you can make an assessmet of Straw Bears ability if you wanted too, but you are unable to factor in any ailment that a horse may succumb to, as this will probably only be revealed during racing
Apologies if i’ve misunderstood what you meant
We are on the same wavelength Charlie
Thats pretty well what i meantWhich leads me to
Straw Bear’s other efforts at Cheltenham were abysmal
I would say that his other efforts at Cheltenham have to be ignored. It wasnt the track or distance that made him burst blood vessels
From what I’ve seen so far this term, I would be under the impression that Straw Bear has improved. IMO last year he wasn’t good enough for the best CH horses, but he travelled well in the Bula before blowing up and looked like he really needed the run, and then beat a rejuvenated Harchibald at Kempton. Granted the later was mostly due to a bit of McCoy magic, but if those two find themselves battling each other up the Cheltenham hill I’d fancy the same outcome. Given his health problems however, the question is will Straw Bear even be in a position to challenge? I’m not sure, and that’s why I’m leaving him.
FoF, I just don’t get your Sublimity bashing at all I’m afraid. IMO the only thing the horse has done wrong in the last 12 months was enjoy his summer off too much, meaning he was unfit at Cheltenham last month. If you watch last years’ CH, he finds enough off the bridle to leave two past champions and notorious battlers for dead. The only thing going quicker at the post was Afsoun, who probably needs further. IMO he’s quite rightly still favourite, as everything else has a big old question mark hanging over them: how much did Osana owe to those cheeky 10l? Will SB burst a blood vessel again? Can Harchibald be arsed?
All that being said, your Katchit e/w makes sense as he’s just about the only one who you can guarantee will run to previous form, it just looks as though that form is a bit shy of winning anything but a dismal CH.FoF
IMO, SB’s Novice form has no bearing on his chances in the 2008 CH as that Novice form is way below what is required to even place in CH
The best races imo to have a bearing on his 2007 CH claims were those where he faced horses like those in the Kingwell, Agfa
The best races (again imo) that have bearing, are those he’s run this season and those he will run this season, these tell you his current ability and not passed ability.
The races he’s run so far this season say, needed first, beaten Harchibald the shirker, we now need him to run in something like the AIG to show us he”s either CH material or just like last year a decent horse with good place prospects
Clivex
You have two poor runs when he’s been reported as not been right from 12 attempts and one where he probably needed it, so a guesstimation of ability is available. if you want to make it
How are you going have an idea SB is going burst, have an infection or succumb to some other ailment before he runs – Ring Mystic Meg????
Think your showing a bit of naivety Clivex
I don’t think he is the naive one, of course the horse could spring a surprise..how do you he’s NOT going to burst.Call Mystic Meg??? ……..I am only giving my opinion and if you had asked me what I thought after he scooshed up at Newcastle it would have been totally different..This Champion hurdle stinks to the high heavens and you couldn’t fancy anything with confidence…….. Sublimity 16/1 Beech Road 50/1, Kirriemuir 50/1 See You Then 16/1 Hardy Eustace 33/1 For Auction 40/1 Want some more? are proof of that…..if anyone is being Naive it’s you mate…..and come on mate there is absolutely no need to bad mouth a guy for giving an honest opinion and pointing out that no one mentioned the horse has physical problems…..did you know that cos I never?
Horses make complete fools out of their owner trainers jockeys and the public every day of the week.
Still think he wouldn’t win a champion hurdle with a rocket tied to his ass as even at his best he’s not good enough.but it is only an opinion………BTW did I mention I am never wrong?
FoF read the above post and you’ll see what i said about horses succumbing to ailments
You cannot factor bursting, you cannot factor a GW breaking down, you cannot factor a horse falling, you cannot factor another horse falling and bringing another horse down, nor the many other black swans and thinking you can IS being naive
WE make estimations of probability from the info available and the info we have so far suggests SB is probably over his problem, however, we need more info to verify this
Why does the CH AP market stink??
It looks like a normal AP market to me – a completely useless piece of info
I never said the market stinks I said the race does. There is not one horse in the race you could describe as truly top class.
Think even the half decent horses Like Dawn Run, Sea Pigeon, See You Then etc…..at least they had a touch of class.this lot are as ordinary as I have seen in years………nothing even remotely like a true champion has emerged since Istabraq IMO…Rooster Booster, Hardy Eustace, Sublimty are hardly names we will remember.
Apologies FOF, my mistake
Why does race stink???
And no offence Fof, but i personally don’t care if a horse from, 30, 20, 10, 5 or even 2 years ago were regarded as Top Class
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I keep saying i’m gonna sit back and be lurker, soak up peoples interesting thoughts and not get involved in these type of debates, but i just don’t have discipline to do it
Signed
racing forum addict
So to sum up this thread;
The Jury is well and truly out on Straw Bear – some are for, some are against, and some think it’s difficult to call. Everyone has their own valid opinions which is great.
I’m firmly against Straw Bear in the CH, I cannot for the life of me see him finishing in front of Katchit. Yes, strictly through a form line regarding Harchibald puts Straw Bear in front, but I personally believe that Katchit is a totally different horse at Cheltenham.
However, as nothing ever surprises me in horse racing, I wouldn’t get involved in a match bet regading the two – with a bookie or anyone on here
Mike
However, as nothing ever surprises me in horse racing, I wouldn’t get involved in a match bet regading the two – with a bookie or anyone on here
No danger of that, Mike, you’re the resident ad-hoc book compiler round these parts.
Just out of interest, what would you say? 4/6 Katchit, EVS Straw Bear, or even a wee bit shorter on The Mighty Atom?
Friggo,
I’m that confident, I would go 4/9 Katchit, 13/8 Straw Bear
But I wouldn’t have a bet
Mike
"David Cormack is obviously in league with the likes of Non Vintage, Carvillshill, Grasshopper, Aaronsomethingorother,"
Christ! I am mentioned in the same sentence as four of the greats of the TRF ! I can die a happy man
And on that note…
I am Jackane24
“No, I’m Jackane24”.
“I’m Jackane24!”
“I’m Jackane24 and so’s my wife!”
etc.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Apologies FOF, my mistake
Why does race stink???
And no offence Fof, but i personally don’t care if a horse from, 30, 20, 10, 5 or even 2 years ago were regarded as Top Class
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I keep saying i’m gonna sit back and be lurker, soak up peoples interesting thoughts and not get involved in these type of debates, but i just don’t have discipline to do it
Signed
racing forum addict
That’s weird mate.. can you tell me something please?…….If you are not interested why did you ask the question…….are you bored with life……don’t you get out much?…….anyway here’s a little summary for you so you can make a few quid and get out and about.
Here’s how I really see the CH.
Sizing Europe has won 2 of his last 3 races and would have been 3 had he not fallen at the 2nd last. He’s definitely on the upgrade and the race has all the hallmarks of a race looking for a new kid on the block……..looks a real tough horse who keeps finding a bit more when needed. Has also won at Cheltenham when beating Osana granted he was receiving 6lbs but has been rested since. I expect he will improve more and at 10/1 is the value bet of the race. Certainly looks a much tougher horse and better proposition than favourite Sublimity.
Katchit while you can EW is what I say……..all this talk about he hasn’t got the scope and size for improvement is rubbish…Like Sea Busicuit was a giant..it’s about heart not size and I reckon he has plenty in that department. Wasn’t right in his last 2 races and sure to run a big race.
For third place much depends on the ground. If it comes up right for Blythe Knight I can see him just about running into a place. Definitely a better horse than Past Memories who his trainer rode into a place. John Quinn will have him spot on and his fingers crossed the going will suit.
OR
Harchibald, who is sure to run well as nothing in this race is likely to have him off the bridle until after the 2nd last…..only problem is the older they get the flyer they become and there is no reason to think he will go through with his run…if he doesn’t wan’t to go nothing or no one will make him..too dodgy a bet for me.
Next week I might change my mind and fully expect not to back the winner of the Champion Hurdle…so to save me ven thinking about the race I am backing Sizing Europe at the best price I can get……….having already backed Katchit EW he and SE are my two against the field.
For those who want to bet Straw Bear my advice is buy your wife a new coat instead because better she smiles at you than the bookie when you give him your hard earned cash that you will never see gain…..IMO of course.
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