January 29, 2007 at 20:47 #248
Can he beat Teofilo?
<br>January 29, 2007 at 22:10 #27659
A very short and direct question Empty Wallet. I wrote quite a bit about Strategic Prince last year and my answer is yes.
Lets look at what we know about Strategic Prince. It surprisingly won on debut over a trip much too short for it. It then got found out against Hellvelyn in the (from memory) Norfolk Stakes. I remember being on holiday for its next run, but the hot favourite was "Hoh Mike" after his "unlucky" 2nd in the Norfolk Stakes. However HM pedigree suggested 5f was ideal while Strategic Prince had a stamina laden pedigree. And Strategic Prince was an unconsidered 16/1 shot:o . And it won. Then it steps up to 7f and still had its chances dismissed on here. And again it improved and won decisively. The trainer said:
"HeÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s a very mature horse, thereÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s nothing backward about him and thereÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s never been anything to say heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s needed more time. IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve always taken the view that if theyÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢re coming along nicely donÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t stop them. WeÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢d have to look on the bright side – things were against him today and he overcame them and the second horse is obviously very good. There are only a couple of races to think about but one would like to win the Dewhurst because heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s a got a lot of speed. HeÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s odds on to get a mile and beyond next year. – Paul Cole, trainer; He was very good, the pace in the race was a bit slow and wasnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t ideal. I committed earlier than I wanted and when he was in front he was idling but when I came to the line the other horse came to me and he went again but the race was over really. Over six furlongs in the July Stakes he was very impressive. He showed a real good turn of foot and picked up like a good horse and the extra furlong today suited. HeÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s a big baby and things are coming easily to him so there has got to be improvement as well. – Eddie Ahern, jockey"
But despite this victory he then gets overlooked for the Dewhurst on the basis he was "lucky" in which he finished in a staying on 3rd. He must be the best juvenile in the world never to start favourite and win 3/5 starts! Backing it at SP has yielded a 32pt profit.
Based on its pedigree, it will improve next year for a longer trip. I always thought it would be a Derby horse but backed it at 50/1 for the Guineas and 33/1 ew for The Derby which i believe is still available. His trainer said after The Dewhurst:
"We were beaten by two very good horses but I don’t think that that was his ground. I think he will stay further and we will give him a 2,000 Guineas preparation. Eddie Ahern thinks he will get a mile and a half. We were in two minds as to whether to run but he has run very well. – Paul Cole, trainer"
The RP said: "Strategic Prince travelled better than most through the race despite fears over the ground for him. He battled on well for third but could not contain the big two. However, this late foal, who has not raced since his Group 2 Vintage win at Goodwood, is another open to improvement next year."
Now the worry for me is the ground. The ground for the Dewhurst was described as Gd/Sft and if it won’t run on softer then there is no guarantee it will run in the Guineas or Derby. Its record suggests any ground aside from the extremes suits but as it has only raced on Gd/Sft and Gd/Fm we don’t really know.
Teofilo may be vulnerable over a mile on Gd/Fm ground but i don’t see Strategic prince beating in under those conditions. i think SPs best chance would be on Gd/Fm ground in The Derby. So to conclude I think the colt has been badly underrated on here and in other forums and has a fair chance of beating Teofilo given optimum conditions. What do you think EW now i have made a fool of myself?:biggrin: <br>January 29, 2007 at 22:22 #27660
Excellent post FSL
<br>I think he is an underestimated horse.
The Dewhurst run alone on maybe the wrong ground and coming from off a decent lay off, give him every right to be considered as being able to reverse form or at least getting very close to the front two imo
<br>I also think he has maybe more scope than HRE, so it will be interesting to see how he does as a 3yo
Teo will not have it all his own way imo ;)
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:25 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)January 29, 2007 at 22:29 #27661davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
I’m not quite so sure that Strategic Prince’s pedigree is quite so stamina laden as some people make out. He has 2 half brothers, namely Yorkshire (won over 1m at 2 yrs) and Riyadh that stayed all day, but both were by influences for stamina in Generous and Caerleon. Of more interest in his pedigree is Asley, who was bred along similar lines to Strategic Prince in being by Danehill (Strategic Prince is by Dansili) who only raced at 2 yrs for M. Tregoning but was a 6f/7f winner. It’s also worth noting that the dam Ausherra also won over 6f in her juvenile campaign so on closer inspection, it isn’t quite so surprising that Strategic Prince could win at the distances he has.
What hasn’t been picked up in the press quite so much as the stamina in his pedigree is the temperament. Neither Yorkshire or Riyadh (sorry naps if you’re reading this!) could be trusted towards the end of their careers, whilst his Red Ransom half-brother Red Admiral earned the Timeform tailpiece ‘none too genuine.’
In my opinion Strategic Prince was a high-class 2yo that should train on and will stay a milel. He’ll probably get 10f but I’m not so sure he’ll be fully effective at 12f (sire did produce the Arc winner though). I think he’s got good prospects of being in the shake up in the top mile races at 3, but will be best trying to avoid Jim Bolger’s monster.
P.S. FSL, it was Dutch Art than won the Norfolk, and Hoh Mike was definetly unlucky (I should know, I backed him so watched him closely :biggrin:)!!January 29, 2007 at 22:40 #27662
Quick scan at SP’s pedigree, i also think 8-10f should be within his compass, 12f i’d have may doubts
I think he’ll make a very good miler, but may be found out over further in top class races
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:45 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)January 29, 2007 at 22:53 #27663
You may be right DJ about his stamina but he would have evry chance on Good ground. I haven’t seen anything unsavioury regarding his temperament as yet.
Was Hoh Mike unlucky? I dunno DJ and i backed it too. At the time I thought so but if you look at the race now, i don’t know if it would of got past or not.January 30, 2007 at 08:28 #27664napsMember
- Total Posts 159
No offence taken DJ, and in fact that was something I was going to mention but you beat me to it. Ausherra’s offspring such as Riyadh and Yorkshire have shown distinct signs of temperament that got worse as they got older. The positive sign is that whereas Riyadh showed temperament from his 2yo days (meaning he had to be gelded and remained unraced as a 2yo) SP has so far shown himself to be very straightforward. And since Riyadh and, I believe, Yorkshire, were both in Paul Cole’s care in their early years, it is a positive sign that he sees no resemblance in their attitude.
With regards to stamina, I tend to agree with DJ that the stamina influence came more from the sires than Ausherra herself. An example of a stamina laden dam would be Prix de Cadran winner Sought Out, who has produced the likes of North Light, Cover Up and the dog I owned, Treasure Chest! Ausherra is no Sought out.
(Edited by naps at 8:28 am on Jan. 30, 2007)January 30, 2007 at 10:37 #27665
I don’t think Strategic Prince should have any stamina problems with 12f. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I agree with the point about Yorkshire and Riyadh being by strong stamina influences, but they were capable of winning over extended distances much more than a mile and a half.
Ausherra herself didn’t have stamina problems; it was more a touch lack of class and a few signs of temperament, rather than not getting the trip in the Oaks and the Park Hill (where, incidentally, she finished ahead of Sought Out!).
Not only is Ausherra Ramruma’s full sister, but also Royal Scimitar, who had a listed win over 13f. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Plenty of stamina comes direct from the dam’s side.
Dansili is developing into a class sire, with a similar characteristic to his own sire – imbuing class rather than a stamina preference. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â He is capable of getting speedy miler types, but with stamina mares/damsires he has shown, with Rail Link, Passage of Time, Quenched and High Heel Sneakers, that he is able to get those that stay the Derby distance too.January 30, 2007 at 12:42 #27666
I think he has every chance of beating Teofilo over a mile (as much as i love Teofilo) but also, i don’t think he has any chance of beating Haatef on the Dewhurst running.
Prendergast’s runner was coming into the Dewhurst after just one maiden run where he was a ready winner. He still looked green in the Dewhurst and if i remember rightly i felt sure on the day he was unlucky not to finish third. He got knocked about in that race but kept on strongly.
I find it hard to believe that Strategic Prince can beat Haatef if they both run in the Guineas this year. Im not saying Haatef will win, but wherever he finishes i would hope that Strategic Prince would be behind him.
He was a very late foal and is certain to improve leaps and bounds this year. His pedigree suggests that a mile will probably be his trip and being an american bred he also wouldnt have been that well suited by the ‘tacky’ ground at last years Dewhurst.
I think he is amazing value for the guineas at 33’s on betfair as long as he is fit and well.
(Edited by Stormont at 12:43 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)January 30, 2007 at 14:08 #27667
Quote: from Sal on 10:37 am on Jan. 30, 2007[br]I don’t think Strategic Prince should have any stamina problems with 12f.
That will do for me!January 30, 2007 at 14:43 #27668
lol@FSL – didn’t say I thought he could win the Derby though!
Stormont – "His pedigree suggests that a mile will probably be his trip" – Haatef’s pedigree suggests more July Cup than Newmarket Guineas winner to me. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
Nearly all the Danzig/Mr P crosses that have won class races over 1m have been in the States – the most successful Europeans have been max 7f (most obviously Dayjur, Pas de Reponse). Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Could well be going related, or that their stamina is not tested as much on flat US tracks. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Either way, I’m not sure that an early mile at Newmarket will suit his breeding.January 30, 2007 at 15:09 #27669
Maybe your right, Sal, but i don’t think he will have any problem getting the trip on pedigree at all. and judging on his dewhurst run (did you see it?) he was hampered by Holy Roman Emperor as he was making a challenge and then stayed on again. He will have no problem at a mile on better ground, he has shown he can go well fresh (he wasn’t that well fancied when he won first time) which i always think is a plus.
He was a late foal (11th May) so would have been a fairly immature horse last year.
Without the inerference he would have finished 3rd and much closer to Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor.
I wish i had backed him before, thats all.
I can’t see how you can say and early mile race isn’t what he needs, unless you didn’t watch the Dewhurst.
The other one to take out of the Dewhurst was Adagio, the horse he beat on his debut is very good in my opinion and he was unlucky not to have finished closer in the Dewhurst, but i don’t know what races he will be pointed to this year
(Edited by Stormont at 3:11 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)January 30, 2007 at 15:24 #27670
A late foal is still a late foal – he won’t yet be 3 by the time of the Guineas. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
I wasn’t making a comment on his running style (although, yes, I did see the Dewhurst, lol), purely on his breeding.
However, I would tend to be cautious with horses who were unlucky in running. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â If they are hampered and forced to take a pull, they can then appear to be running on stronger at the end than their rivals – where as with a clear run at full pace throughout they may have been getting tired. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
The Guineas is a tough race for young horses, and I think they need to be a true mile stayer to get it. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Haatef has too many warning flags for me.January 30, 2007 at 16:45 #27671
I understand what both of you have said, and sal, im the biggest ever skeptic when it comes to unlucky horses and 90% of the time i would agree with you, but this horse did actually stay on again after finding his stride (he looked to get intimidated). Strategic Prince was not stopping and Haatef was catching him all the way to the line again just be denied for third (over a mile he would have finished thrid and probably would have been beaten on a length by the 1st and 2nd)
On this evidence, no matter what his pedigree suggests, a mile will be no problem at all. There are no pedigrees that will always give the same results. my name sake was bred to make it over at least 8furlongs but struggled to stay further than 6.
The main worry would be as trackside pointed about about the sister that disappointed at 3.
I just think you could do much worse than back this horse at 33/1. For any horse to run that sort of race in such a hot renewal of the Dewhurst on ground that wouldnt have been ideal after only one run, suggests whatever trip he wants he is going to be well above average this year.
Im adamant that he will get a mile on that running and he is only going to mature further this year.
Its all about opinions and i think he is one of the very few in the guineas that remain of any value.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.