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Unplaced!
Had a couple of backs and a lay today. Laid Vyta Du Roc and backed Gevrey Chambertain W + P (level stakes). Gutted not to get a winner from him. Probably just took on Brandon Hill a little early but Aspell’s given the winner a great ride. Very underrated jockey. Vyta Du Roc is, as I suspected, a dog. Probably a couple lbs below Gevrey Chambertain’s ability. Nichols Canyon only beat him a neck in the Neptune. A neck! I just can’t have NC as the Champion Hurdle winner on the likely ground. If it comes up soft, yes.
Also backed Haverock in the 2.00 at Southwell, only win, came 3rd :( also laid the 2nd favourite. The one whose form figures were 5-2. So made a bit of profit on the race. I thought Haverock, the favourite or Gosden’s newcomer would win. Market didn’t like Gosden’s at all. 2nd fav was unplaced, his form was shocking, no idea why people were backing him.
Just had a bit on Pacha Du Polder, just to pay for tonight’s backs. Won well.
Also had a couple of min backs at Dundalk; Gretzky and Poetic Choice.
Anyway, enough about today.
I came on here to write about Cold March in particular! Ok so a few things putting me off him; 1) Vibrato Valtat’s in ideal conditions. 2) Going LH and still a ? over him LH 3) Soft ground, 4/5 career wins on good 4) one more but I forgot. I’m really gutted they didn’t put him in the race at Kempton in 2 weeks and use this as a prep. He’d be perfect there.
Tbh Vibrato Valtat at 2/1’s a back I think.
Native River vs Bristol De Mai. Native River will have had a break after Chepstow. Race fit? Hmmm. Bristol De Mai’s a much quicker horse and he revels in soft ground. He definitely comes here fit. But I’ve just been reminded by the replay on The Betting Lab about how much that race fell apart. He has not proved his form over this trip to be better than Native River’s. No opinion.
What an awful Kingmaker. That’s the worst Kingmaker line-up I’ve ever seen. This was an Arkle trial a few years back. Now it’s full of mid-140s. I like Knockgraffon, I like Gino Trail, I like Chic Name. On form, Gino Trail should beat Chic Name. They’re gonna go quick here, cos Chic Name and Gino Trail both like to lead, and Knockgraffon likes to race prominently. Flying Angel loves soft ground and is unexposed over fences. Has some very nice hurdling form on the surface. You’d expect him to be able to run close to 150 on soft ground, given his proximity to Le Prezien at Aintree. Not sure you could count on any of them running to 150 here. Interesting he’s chucked straight into a Grade 2 on his return from injury. At the prices, he’s my back. Overtown Express might be the one to benefit from the quick pace, so unfortunately I can’t lay at the price :( if he front-ran, I’d definitely lay
4.00 Uttoexeter, Master Jake. Ready to win and getting ideal conditions. 7lb claimer now instead of 3lb claimer. Beaten by a good horse lto. This jockey won a race for Dan Skelton the other day as well. Some dangers but I think he’ll win. 3/1 fair
3.55 Naas, Killer Crow. Laid out to win a race very soon. Got mullered in the Thyestes.
And I think that’ll be it! Will look more later
Also backed Sheff Wednesday who’ve literally just gone 1-0 up. Poetic Rhythm 2nd, let’s see how Gretzky gets on
Sheff Weds won 3-0. Gretzky was nowhere.
The Premier League looks interesting and I’m swaying between two options.
Middlesborough vs Everton
Sunderland vs SouthamptonEither I can back both home teams or lay both away teams. I’d be very surprised if there were 2 away wins here.
Or…I could lay Everton and back Sunderland. Boro struggle for goals but their defence is very good. Southampton I just think are awful and now with Van Dijk out for a bit and Fonte gone, will struggle more. Annoyingly they signed a striker in January and he scored last week, but successful ex-Serie A players have been rare in England. We’ll see.
Also backing Alavas draw no bet at 9/1 vs Barca.
Laying Seville away to Las Palmas
Backing Villarreal at home to Malaga
Burnley at home…either we’re backing them outright, draw no bet or laying Chelsea.
Arsenal’s recent form has been abysmal. Elneny’s back but still no proper central midfield. I like Hull’s manager. and as an Arsenal fan, I can tell you that they’re only a reliable bet 6-10 times a season, and that bet is usually on their opposition! Hull are about 10/1 draw no bet.
Flying Angel loves soft ground and is unexposed over fences. Has some very nice hurdling form on the surface. You’d expect him to be able to run close to 150 on soft ground, given his proximity to Le Prezien at Aintree. Not sure you could count on any of them running to 150 here. Interesting he’s chucked straight into a Grade 2 on his return from injury. At the prices, he’s my back. Overtown Express might be the one to benefit from the quick pace, so unfortunately I can’t lay at the price
if he front-ran, I’d definitely laywinner winner chicken dinner, read that race spot on
4.00 Uttoexeter, Master Jake. Ready to win and getting ideal conditions. 7lb claimer now instead of 3lb claimer. Beaten by a good horse lto. This jockey won a race for Dan Skelton the other day as well. Some dangers but I think he’ll win. 3/1 fair
What can you say
Middlesborough vs Everton
Sunderland vs SouthamptonEither I can back both home teams or lay both away teams. I’d be very surprised if there were 2 away wins here.
Laid both
Also backing Alavas draw no bet at 9/1 vs Barca.
Only 5-0 down from home, 25 minutes to go so plenty of time to bring it back
Laid draw in Villarreal vs Malaga at 2.0 in-running cos I woke up at 12pm lol
Backed Burnley draw no bet 5.8 after they scored the equaliser. Big, big mistake not laying Chelsea at 0-1 at 1.15. That’ll probably cost me money.
Laying Bapaume at 2.30. Won’t win.
2.50, backing Reve d S (1st time in a handicap in so long, perfect conditions so must back at 16/1) + Fingal Bay, who also has perfect conditions
3.20 Katenko + Wychwoods Brook
3.30 Bleu Et Rouge
3.50 Alary (value bet)
Well that was all rubbish last Sunday, apart from laying Bapaume.
I didn’t back a single horse today. Laid Arpege D’Alene at evens + place laid Taquin Du Seuil.
But tomorrow…couple of things I like. One thing I very much like.
MR 3.00 Master of Finance. Handicap debut, by Mastercraftsman + has some nice hurdling form. Small bet as I just don’t know if his handicap mark treats him well. Win only.
Navan 3.40 Mister First. Tiny tiny EW bet at 40/1+. Could be well in.
Navan 3.10 I hope Supasundae wins or goes close for my Stayers Hurdle bet on him. Won’t be backing him outright.
Ffos Las 3.50, this is the one I really like. Unfortunately irishracing.com teased me, the bastards, by putting Bob Ford up at 16/1 in their tissue. In reality he’s 13/2. He gets his perfect conditions here but it looks a competitive little race.
Waldorf Salad runs for Venetia. He must have had issues this year, simple as that as he’s definitely better than his current mark. He’s getting his ideal conditions and he should either win or run very well. 12/1. That’s worth a small EW bet.
Bob Ford comes into the race with far greater credentials though, and he’s very well-in. Win only NAP.
I’m not even a tiny bit scared of the fav Pearl Swan, who gets a 5lb hike for winning a race that fell apart a bit LTO. I also suspect It’safreebee was in there only to get his handicap mark down.
Ffos Las 3.50, this is the one I really like. Unfortunately irishracing.com teased me, the bastards, by putting Bob Ford up at 16/1 in their tissue. In reality he’s 13/2. He gets his perfect conditions here but it looks a competitive little race.
Waldorf Salad runs for Venetia. He must have had issues this year, simple as that as he’s definitely better than his current mark. He’s getting his ideal conditions and he should either win or run very well. 12/1. That’s worth a small EW bet.
Bob Ford comes into the race with far greater credentials though, and he’s very well-in. Win only NAP.
I’m not even a tiny bit scared of the fav Pearl Swan, who gets a 5lb hike for winning a race that fell apart a bit LTO. I also suspect It’safreebee was in there only to get his handicap mark down.
Very surprised Pearl Swan’s won that.
Waldorf Salad definitely has an issue.
Bob Ford looks like he needs a bit further at this stage of his career.
I had 2 bets on the weekend, a 4-fold and a 5-fold.
Dinaria Des Obeaux
McGowan’s Pass
Frodon all wonBut Charli Parcs + Capitaine let me down :(
Anyway I’m just saving up at the moment for a hefty bet in the County Hurdle so not doing much at the moment.
It’s interesting seeing the results from my notebook horses everyday. Maybe this can serve as a lesson for some people, it certainly does for me – in the past couple of weeks, there have been 3 horses (ok, there are probably more and I’m only remembering the good parts) I’ve really been looking forward to seeing in handicaps;
Mick Jazz (who was my original County pick actually)
Crystal Lad
Master BlueyesThey all ran in non-handicaps and all won. 7/1, 5/1 and whatever Master Blueyes’ price was, I think I saw 12/1 in the morning?
Let this be a lesson to all – don’t be afraid to back a horse you’re waiting for in a handicap in a non-handicap.
Come to think of it, Thunder and Roses just finished 2nd in the Bobbyjo at about 10/1 as well. Another handicapper I was waiting for who nearly did it in a Grade 3.
Really looking forward to My Tent Or Yours in the Champion Hurdle. Recent injuries/events have resulted in a lot of defections and it’s really cut up nicely for him.
Alpha Des Obeaux on the other hand…the RSA just gets harder and harder every day. He’s still the best horse in the race though.
Could say the exact same for Wholestone in the AB. Another race that’s starting to look very stacked.
I’m not really a big handicap player, so I find it funny when I think about the Festival…I spend 5 months focussing all of my energy on it, and I probably have 8 strong fancies over the 4 days, and that’s it!
Need to start multipling them
I’ve got a couple of notebook runners out over the next 2 days that I like a lot.
The Hooded Claw at 7.30 Newcastle. I actually missed him the last day when he finished 4th, which is a bit lucky as he went in my notebook the time before at Catterick. He was only just beaten the last day. May have been injured as he’s had a break, or perhaps they’re just setting him up.
Dark Side Dream at 5.25 Newcastle on Thursday is a nap. Cannot believe it took them so long to drop back to 5f.
I’ve got another one on Friday, just waiting to see if he’s declared.
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