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Crossfire missed the break and never travelled, Krystallite and Captain Lars might as well have been pulled up and Archie Stevens got taken out 1f out. Sometimes you can be right but you still lose. Just like your opponent hitting a 1-outer on the river.
I’m definitely with you regarding waiting for better racing. My last big wins were Welsh National day and at Sandown a few Saturdays back. The midweek cards are mostly poor fayre and can lead to irrational bets, and results.
That said, I do like Polar Ticer at Meydan with conditions in her favour-big win bet.
On Saturday I like Capitaine, the 2/1 is good value considering the way he bolted up at Ascot and too many questions about the others. I also like Lifeboat Mona who equally dotted up last time-Dynaste off this lowly mark should surely win too in the Veterans, although the trip might just stretch him.
Jose Fonte tells Southampton he wants to leave
surprise, surpriseBlackbeard to conquer the World
£242.01
-£89.60
£152.41
Cert running tomorrow. Westend Story, 2.10 Wetherby. 25%, £37.50, of my bank at 1.57.
Couple of notebook horses running today.
K 2.30 Viola Park, £2.50 EW 11/1
K 5.00 Equally Fast, £2.50 EW 25/1
Rubbish, rubbish and rubbish. Equally Fast I’m waiting for over 5f. Thought perhaps 6f would be ok. Haven’t seen the run but he has talent, not sure he’s being campaigned very well. Viola Park, maybe they’re just looking to get his mark back into the 40s.
Westend Story…I just don’t know. Could forgive the last run but that was rubbish today. Didn’t like the ground? Didn’t like going LH? I could give him another go RH on better ground, but I think that’d be last chance saloon for me and him.
Been travelling all day and wanna take my dogs for a walk, need to have a closer look at the race but at the very least I’m having £5EW on Marcilhac for Venetia in the 1.15. Just managed to get 9/1. Will look later and might increase my bet. I think it’s very likely that he’s far better than he’s shown so far.
Also got £5EW on Aachen at 20s in the Veterans.
At first glance I think Garde La Victoire might be a good candidate for a lay, around 2/1. Racing’s pretty rubbish tomorrow :/ will check out my notebook horses later.
Tough little race, the 1.15 at Sandown.
As I said, I’ve focussed on Marcilhac, the Venetia Williams runner. I think he has some nice conditions here. I’m happy to ignore last seasons runs (6th, 6th) as it just seems nonsense to me, out of sync with what I’d expect from a Venetia Williams runner. His reappearance at Ascot seemed decent, and the winner Poker School has bolted up since (the 2nd finished 2nd NTO too, so the form’s looking decent). Couldn’t see a great deal in the fog unfortunately, but we know for a fact that Marchilhac will improve for that run. Typically he was given a very quiet, easy hands-and-heels ride after blowing up 2-3f out. Venetia’s horses are really improving for their first run, and this looks like a good winning candidate after a very respectable seasonal reappearance.
His last ‘proper’ run came in a hurdle race at Kempton, where he was only just beaten by Carole’s Destrier (now rated 154 over fences) and ahead of Legacy Gold (3rd in the Mares race at Cheltenham a month later, currently rated 138 over hurdles) and Portway Flyer (currently rated 131 over fences). Marchilhac runs here off 126, so I think he could be very well-in, potentially even a stone well-in. Also drops down from a 0-140 chase to 0-130. Beaten by Knock House on his UK debut by 3L – Knock House currently rated 141 over fences, 136 over hurdles.
Another £5 EW at 9/1. £5 EW double with Aachen (16/1). 50p EW Yankee with Venetia’s other 2 runners, Tara Flow and Bright New Dawn. I’m not sure about Bright New Dawn. Garde La Victoire actually looks a decent candidate in that race, contrary to what I thought earlier. Bold Henry’s getting conditions in his favour and Hollywoodien looks progressive, so 2/1 Garde La Victoire doesn’t really appeal. A shame that Tara Flow races in a 7-runner contest, hampering my place terms.
So I’ve laid out a total of £51, all on Venetia’s runners.
I have one place lay in mind for tomorrow, Some Buckle in the 2.05 at Wincanton. I should be able to lay at around 2.4. I’ll look to win about £25 with that. Marcilhac placing would return £22.50, so those would recoup pretty much the total outlay for the day with a number of EW multiples running on. Dynaste could potentially be a nice price to lay for a place, given the competitive nature of the Veterans’ race and his questionable form. At first glance Rocky Creek, Gas Line Boy, Cloudy Too, Aerial and Aachen have a shout, and that’s just on the face of it.
£53.91 (+ £40 ante-post)
I’ve also done some Festival multiples which I’m feeling really quite excited about. Laid out a total of £105 for those. Very happy with my idea, this could easily pay a lot of money. I’ll reveal them closer to the Fez.
Was out walking for my dogs and came to the realisation I need to get a bit more on L’Ami Serge for the Champion Hurdle. He was trading at 140 6 hours ago. Now only 40 :( oh well.
I have no interest in any other race tomorrow.
Really hope Southampton win to give them an extra game they have to bother with. Likewise Leicester.
Donald Trump not to see out his term + the UK not to have left the EU by Jan 1st 2019, 12/1 Betfred. We can’t have left the EU by then, as it’s a 2-year process. I assume they mean ‘invoke Article 50’, but their wording is completely wrong and we could take advantage of that. We’d just need the wonderful, beautiful, clever people over at IBAS to rule in our favour. Trump not to see out his term…would this be the biggest surprise in the world? I can easily see him getting impeached over some bullshit. Definitely a greater chance than 8.3%. Could easily see him getting carried away one night on Twitter and revealing something monumentally stupid, and impeachable.
On the flip side of Trump getting impeached…Donald Trump 4/1 to serve two full terms. This could be the saver. Since 1963, 5 of 9 Presidents served two full terms. Nixon would have been a 6th but was impeached himself two years into his second term. I find it extremely probable than Kennedy would have been re-elected. 2 of the 3 who didn’t serve two full terms essentially inherited the Presidency from fallen Presidents – Kennedy (assassinated) and Nixon (impeached). 4/1 is definitely good value.
So I laid out £51 earlier, broke even in the Garde La Victoire race and picked up £46 odd laying Some Buckle, so about £5 down today, very acceptable. Still got Aachen to come. I think there’s a nice race in Marcilhac.
Had a good think about my betting in the past 24 hours. Good to reflect on where I’m going wrong and where I’m going right. A nice long walk always helps!
Had 3 football bets. Total layout for £25.
£10 Norwich (home to Southampton)
£10 Bolton (home to Crystal Palace)£5 treble with West Brom
Either single would recoup most of the outlay.
Place laid Dynaste to win £15 and had £5 on Cloudy Too, so either Norwich or Bolton would ensure a profit.
Hmmm bit unlucky there, 2 draws. Great news that Southampton and Leicester have to play an extra match though. That takes Southampton’s number of January games up to 8 and potentially 9 if they win their replay. No Charlie Austin til the end of March, no Bouffal til February and potentially goodbye to their captain Fonte (?). If Van Dijk is on his bike as well, that’d be goodbye to the 2 centrebacks that have played the most amount of minutes for them.
About £20 down after those football bets. Still, we’ve been given a get out of jail free card. Lay Preston at 2.74 to win £20. We’ve NEVER gone out in the 3rd round before, and I don’t expect it to happen today.
There you go, took 50 seconds of the 2nd half for us to score.
Btw I meant to say “never gone out under Wenger in the 3rd round”
In fact I’ve traded out for a guaranteed +£13.20 profit. It’s either a £7 loss right now, or a potential £56 loss if I don’t trade out. No brainer really. Losing £7 is absolutely fine given neither Marcilhac nor Aachen placed. Actually quite happy. Largely avoided a dodgy day’s racing (as I failed to do a month ago), moved in on a lay I felt strongly about and a couple of successful value lays. I think I have a good idea of the lays I need to pursue and the lays I need to avoid.
I can’t get over how much I love this Festival multiple I placed last night. It’s a cracker.
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