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Cheers, Nathan.
So, this is how this is going to work. I’ll assign a certain level of confidence/risk to each bet, out of 5 stars. A 2 star bet means I can risk 2%, a 5 star bet means I can risk 5%. If I give a selection 2*, whether I do a 1% EW or 2% win bet is my decision.
I can back or I can lay. Laying is slightly different to backing, as the risk depends on the price of the selection. For the time being, I’ll look to make £2 per lay.
Occasionally I will decide a bet is a ‘certainty’. On those occasions I’m happy to risk anything up to 25% of my bank.
Things will start slowly. But patience is key when it comes to gambling. I’m doing this challenge as a personal challenge, to prove to myself that it can be done (I know it can be done), and to prove to others that it can be done.
My initial target is £20,000. I reckon we can potentially get there by the end of April, after the Punchestown Festival.
You’ll find me placing bets on horse racing, football, NFL and Formula 1, and maybe occasionally something else.
I will be analysing my bets to see where I excel and where I struggle. I hope to amputate bad betting habits/patterns as soon as I can.
My approach is going to start quite scattergun, which is where the 1-5* approach comes in. I could easily have 30 bets today, for example. Within a week I hope to know whether this approach is going to work for me or not. Betting with a striking mentality is key, but it’s my 5* and ‘certainty’ bets that are going to reap the rewards from this approach. For the time being, I need to discover whether my 1 or 2* bets are going to hurt my balance. I imagine I’ll discover quickly.
Chocks away in about 1 hour.
Bangor 12.10
Pougne Bobby, 1*. 50p EW 6/1.
Lettheriverrundry, 1/2*. 25p EW 66/1.-£98.50.
I backed Pougne Bobby based on him being a NJH horse, coming off a long break in December running in a novice race.
Lettheriverrundry I backed because he’s on my tracker owing to him being mentioned in a book I bought.
Cheltenham 12.20
Arpege D’Alene, 2*. £2 3.7.
Singlefarmpayment, lay at 6.2 to win £2. This is based on a profile put together by Ben Aitken – both wins on soft + has a bad record when carrying more than 10-12. From a form point of view, I think he’s a decent way behind what’s required to take this.
Cheltenham 12.20
Arpege D’Alene, 2*. £2 3.7.
Singlefarmpayment, lay at 6.2 to win £2. This is based on a profile put together by Ben Aitken – both wins on soft + has a bad record when carrying more than 10-12. From a form point of view, I think he’s a decent way behind what’s required to take this.
This is going well :D I have an unbelievable talent for laying winners, as you’ve seen and will see.
£86.10.
Doncaster 12.30
Lay Benny In Milan at 8.2 to win £2.
Post War, 1*. 50p EW, 9/2£86.10.
Doncaster 12.30
Lay Benny In Milan at 8.2 to win £2.
Post War, 1*. 50p EW, 9/2Better. +£3.81 for Post War, +£1.93 post-commission for Benny In Milan. £5.73 profit.
£91.83.
Highbury High’s a NR so the 12.40 at Bangor is no longer interesting to me. Would have laid on account of the ground.
£20000 with that starting bank extremely optimistic! Gl
I agree, Theo. But I believe patience + a striking mentality can bring about very good results.
Cheltenham 12.20
Arpege D’Alene, 2*. £2 3.7.
Singlefarmpayment, lay at 6.2 to win £2. This is based on a profile put together by Ben Aitken – both wins on soft + has a bad record when carrying more than 10-12. From a form point of view, I think he’s a decent way behind what’s required to take this.
Just been reminded that this horse ran behind Beware The Bear at Ascot. That’s a very stupid mistake from me, as Beware The Bear went in my tracker after winning at Ascot.
Cheltenham 12.55
Troubled Soul, 1*. Fergal O’Brien + Paddy Brennan. 50p EW 6/1.
£90.83.
Doncaster 1.05
Jacob’s only ride of the day on the fav. I’m opposing him however, with £1 bets of Cyrus Moriviere (5.1) and Premier Bond. Tracker horse + NJH December 90+ day novice runner respectively.
Cheltenham 12.55
Troubled Soul, 1*. Fergal O’Brien + Paddy Brennan. 50p EW 6/1.
£90.83.
Doncaster 1.05
Jacob’s only ride of the day on the fav. I’m opposing him however, with £1 bets of Cyrus Moriviere (5.1) and Premier Bond. Tracker horse + NJH December 90+ day novice runner respectively.
£88.83
Bangor 1.15
Walford Salad, 2* bet. £1EW at 6/1. I’m actually hoping he doesn’t win this to give me a better price for next time out.
Subtle Grey, 1* bet, 50p at 12/1. Donald McCain 90+ day break handicap chaser.I have laid Willoughby Hedge for a top 4 place at 3.0 to win £2.
£88.83
Bangor 1.15
Walford Salad, 2* bet. £1EW at 6/1. I’m actually hoping he doesn’t win this to give me a better price for next time out.
Subtle Grey, 1* bet, 50p at 12/1. Donald McCain 90+ day break handicap chaser.I have laid Willoughby Hedge for a top 4 place at 3.0 to win £2.
Very happy to lose with Walford Salad. Given the right conditions, he’ll be a 5* win bet NTO.
Lost £1.07 on the race.
£87.76
Cheltenham 1.30
Lay Southfield Theatre to win £2 at 9.0
Good luck Zark
Cheers VTC!
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