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I’ve kept a record of my bets over the last while, one system in particular I have has yielded an LSP profit of 300 points over a year. The problem I’m having is making a decent profit from this. I had been betting a percentage of the bank on each selection however my returns have actually slightly worse than backing at level stakes.
I would be interested in hearing any staking plans out there which could assist, the average price of my backs is 12.5/1, as you can imagine with backing at these odds there some quite long losing runs, the latest being 27, the longest being 38. All my bets are win only. The problem with using a bank percentage is that after a losing run the bank drops so low that when I hit a hot streak the stakes are very low.
I’ve been toying with the idea of increasing my stake by 1/38th (longest losing run). However I suspect the extra amounts on each bet will come to more than the extra profit when a winner does arrive.
How are your returns slightly worse than using level stakes?
Are you betting a fixed percentage of your bank every time?
Yes, I always bet 2% of the bank. What happens after say a run of 20 losers is that the bank can get down quite a bit, when the winners come the stakes are low (as betting with a reduced bank) that it takes the bank quite a while to recover. In my case I had a very bad losing run early on so it took the bank quite a while to recover.
Instead of using a set percentage of your bank why don’t you consider a particular profit on each bet instead? For example if you wanted to make a £12 profit on every bet then a 12/1 shot would mean you staking £1, a 24/1 shot means you staking 50p.
Don’t know if thats any help or would make any difference to you but its a suggestion.
For larger priced staking you will inevitably come across long losing runs and its a bit of a catch 22 if you use a percentage, as you say you will return less if a big winner comes in at a stake based on a smaller bank size. Of course it works the other way also and you could get good luck and a couple of winners in a row.
Ultimately though for these longer priced systems my general recommendation is to use standard points backing, but you could set a rule that if the trend and profit continues the points staked may rise by 0.1 at set targets (but drop again if the bank does).
MasterK,
The trouble with betting with a % of the bank, is it is not taking in to account how likely a horse is to win. Why should two horses with the same chance of winning, one in May and one in June, get different stakes? (assuming they are the same value).
Trouble with level stakes is it matters less if the shorter priced horses win, more if the bigger priced horses win.
Conversely, by backing to win the same amount (same profit whatever the price) is the stake of lesser priced horses get a bigger stake. Therefore there is greater importance on the shorter priced horses.I’d suggest betting to the FAIR ODDS PERCENTAGE YOU BELIEVE each horse has of winning. PLUS the DIFFERENCE between your ESTIMATE and the AVAILABLE TOP PRICE. So the greater the chance of winning, the greater the stake, but also the greater the value, the greater the stake.
If you believe a horse has a 13% chance of winning, yet is available at 12/1 (7.7% call it 8%) The difference between 13 and 8 is 5 so the stake is 13 + 5 = 18 points @ 12/1. A potential profit of 216 points.
One believed to have a 7% chance who is available at 25/1 (3.8% call it 4%) difference between 7 and`4 being 3, gets 7 + 3 = 10 points @ 25/1 for a potential profit of 250 points.
This way you tend to stake more on the shorter priced horses (quite right because they have a bigger chance of winning). Yet win more on the outsiders (quite right because you don’t have to risk as much money).
Am toying with the idea of adding 2 points for every % difference (instead of just 1 point per % difference); to put more emphasis on how much VALUE is available.
SORRY GOT THIS A BIT WRONG THE FIRST TIME I WROTE IT, NOW EDITED.
Value Is EverythingMark . great stuff . that is the first time someone has explained that properly
cheers
Ricky
Thanks for all the replies guys, some interesting food for thought.
Has anybody any experience using the Retirement plan?
http://www.grandstand.com.au/master.htm … ement.htmlIt seems to satisfy a lot of my requirements in that stake increase with growing banks, yet there is an element of bank protection.
GT – put even more simply, are you saying just stake the equivalent number of points that you believe the true price % to be?
So, one I have as evens I would play 50 pts regardless of the actual price (assuming of course it was less than evens and I thought I had an edge)
A 4/1 shot would be 20 pts, etc?
The other way to approach it would be to stake only the
differential
between the actual price and your own value price.
So, in the 12/1 shot example you gave, you would bet 4 pts (the difference between the two sets of prices).
That way you are increasing/decreasing the stake and having bigger bets on the horses that are better value.
Sorry folks, in my haste I somehow got it wrong.
It’s the percentage YOU BELIEVE each horse has got of winning. Plus the difference between your price and top available price.
So something YOU BELIEVE to have a 13% (true 13/2 shot) which is available @ 12/1 (8%), will have 13 + 5 (the difference) = 18 points @ 12/1 A potential profit of 216 points.
Sorry for the confusion.
Have now edited my first post.
Value Is EverythingThat’s more like it.
The tricky part, of course, is being any better than the market at assessing the true % chance.
But, as a staking plan, it makes quite a lot of sense to me that one.
Mark . great stuff . that is the first time someone has explained that properly
cheers
Ricky
No it wasn’t properly explained Ricky
, sadly got it very wrong first time up, please re-read the post to get my true staking plan.Appologies.
Value Is EverythingThat’s more like it.
The tricky part, of course, is being any better than the market at assessing the true % chance.
But, as a staking plan, it makes quite a lot of sense to me that one.
Sadly, a good staking plan is no substitute to knowledge of the form book.
Value Is Everything2% of your bank with that strike rate is
way
too much. You’ll almost certainly go skint.
Keep the stakes level but reduce the percentage stake. Increase your bank to compensate (if possible).
I find that the best staking plan is to put £5 on the winners, and £2 on the losers.
Horse Racing: £117.50 | Tote: | Total P&L: £117.50
Horse Racing Showing 1 – 6 of 6 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Newm 28th May : 7f Hcap 28-May-10 16:05 28-May-10 16:09 62.24
Horse Racing / Newc 28th May : 1m2f Class Stks 28-May-10 15:55 28-May-10 16:01 -2.00
Horse Racing / Brig 28th May : 1m2f Hcap 28-May-10 15:40 28-May-10 15:44 -2.00
Horse Racing / Newm 28th May : 1m2f Mdn Stks 28-May-10 15:30 28-May-10 15:39 67.26
Horse Racing / Newc 28th May : 1m4f Hcap 28-May-10 15:20 28-May-10 15:25 -6.00
Horse Racing / Newm 28th May : 1m2f Hcap 28-May-10 14:55 28-May-10 14:59 -2.00
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
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