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SWORD FIGHTER 12/1
With Harzand going for arc.Minding not running love to see her gor for triple crown but not happen.And Idaho i think will drop in trip to 1m2 next race be Juddmonte at York that what i think happen for him.Have to be honest when looking at stayers from AOB yard early in season felt KELLSTORM will turn out to be best but not happend like that.My leger horse won same race as my LEADING LIGHT to make all the running at 2m hold on was very good by him.Came back in trip won Curragh cup at 1m6.AOB said he be made for ST Leger for me he is my bet.
I didn’t think Harzand would run.
The St Leger has not been a target for the good horses and it’s a low priority for trainers.
Nijinsky was deemed by some to have left his Arc race back on the turf at Doncaster and why have a hard race in the Leger when the Arc is the all aged, all Europe, Championship in some peoples eyes these days?
Camelot gave the triple crown a go but I suspect the connections knew he was a below average 2000 Guineas and Derby winner and that his best shot at fame was to “Do a Nijinsky”
I pencilled in Beacon Rock for the Leger at 16/1 early doors. His last run was a bit of a suicide mission from the front it seemed and it was hard to say from that that the Leger would suit. The horse is clearly short of the level that Aidan is pitching him at and if he is to win a Group 1 the Leger would be where he is most likely to get away with a class deficiency.
Aidan has several who could go here and Cook Islands was a horse I thought would be suited by a 1m 6f to 2 mile test. He has looked short of pace at lesser distances.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Beacon Rock not entered and Cook Islands a disappointment this season, I am turning to Across The Stars as the value at 16/1.
Michael Stoute’s colt did not handle Epsom and was eased when his chance had gone.
He got no luck at all in the Lingfield Derby Trial when third to Humphrey Bogart and I felt he would have won that race with a clear run.
He bounced back in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, much to my delight, as I had felt him overpriced at 11/1 early that day.
He looks progressive and the 4th and 7th from that last race have won since.
Stoute isn’t quite at the top of his game at the moment but the chance is taken that they will be in better fettle in early September.
The current 16/1 looks too big for Across The Stars, he looks like he should stay, he’s improving and far from exposed. He may just turn up on the day with a moderate field to beat and has the potential to start way shorter than current odds.
He looks more than fair as value for the race.
The St Leger Across The Stars 16/1 to win.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I distinctly recall Stoute when interviewed after Across the stars had won at Ascot, that he felt the horse wouldn’t be aimed at the St Leger as he felt the horse wouldn’t stay the trip.
Then again maybe he’s had a change of mind since, or maybe he was just being typically cautious, who knows. I mean what other middle distance races can a horse be aimed at this stage of the year anyway, if they are not good enough for the Arc. Might as well give it a go.
I distinctly recall Stoute when interviewed after Across the stars had won at Ascot, that he felt the horse wouldn’t be aimed at the St Leger as he felt the horse wouldn’t stay the trip.
Then again maybe he’s had a change of mind since, or maybe he was just being typically cautious, who knows. I mean what other middle distance races can a horse be aimed at this stage of the year anyway, if they are not good enough for the Arc. Might as well give it a go.
You may be correct but I feel a common trait with trainers is to harbour hopes for their colts at a mile and a half for as long as possible but in most cases it simply doesn’t happen.
Roger Varian seemed to take forever to decide that the St Leger was waiting to be won with Kingston Hill but I got lucky and he aimed him there in the end and I landed my 10/1 on the colt. The way I look on these things is that you get another few goes at the race after a winner at good odds and that offsets the inevitable ones where you back a non-runner.
Some people hate not getting a run for their ante-post bet but I just move on. There seems to be this feeling with punters that their horse would definitely have won had they lined up. The actual odds on the day tell you that, normally, it’s still odds-on that your horse will be beaten by one of the field.
Even when they are odds-on on the day (Air Force Blue) there is no guarantee. I had the horse at 12/1 and 10/1 ante-post and he ran like a drain.
My 25p must have rocked the market, as Across The Stars was cut to 14/1 from 16/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like Sword Fighter for this as well, he seems decent staying type, much more so in my opinion than Idaho who’s currently a third of the price.
That said I’ve also picked out a couple of long shots, they’re big prices for a reason right now but I don’t mind a bit of speculation and if they don’t improve enough then so be it.
Corinthian needs to learn how to settle as he’s run pretty green in his two races to date, but I think he might turn out to be pretty good if/when he does.
Crimean Tatar actually hasn’t even raced yet as he was injured last year, so it probably seems crazy to pick him. He makes his debut tomorrow and I have a really good feeling about him. But, I’ve been wrong before.
Sword Fighter will stay but I am concerned about the strength of his form.
That Queens Vase looked rank this year and I doubt that Curragh Cup was truly Gp 2 class.
Rated 105 for now, Sword Fighter may improve but I have niggling worries about his form.
He was a huge price in the Queen’s Vase and while two horses from that race have won since, it was a Curragh maiden at 4/6 Fav and a Ripon handicap that were the races won.
I think Betfair’s odds of 6/1 on him for the St Leger are laughable myself but who knows, it’s a funny old game.
If you are on at good odds all the best but 6/1 seems off kilter to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That’s fair enough Steve, makes sense to me why you’d prefer to look elsewhere. I also didn’t realise he was as short as 6/1 on Betfair, I probably wouldn’t have gone for that either.
That’s fair enough Steve, makes sense to me why you’d prefer to look elsewhere. I also didn’t realise he was as short as 6/1 on Betfair, I probably wouldn’t have gone for that either.
If it’s testing going he’ll be a player for sure but I just worry if something with a bit more speed might be the answer.
John Gosden’s Muntahaa is the other one I like for the Leger. He’s made decent progress stepped up in distance and scooted home in his maiden win over 12F before running a promising third to Across The Stars when entering group class.
Muntahaa seemed a little outpaced before staying on really well and you could make a case for him reversing the form with Across The Stars at the Leger distance. The trainer knows what sort of horse it takes to win this and the son of Dansili looks in that mould.
Across The Stars and Muntahaa are my two against the field.
Good luck everybody.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Call me bonkers but having watched his debut today I reckon Crimean tatar is a stone bonkers certainty for the St Leger.
Good call there seaing stars.
It seems my outsider Crimean Tatar has had some support today after winning his debut race by 7 lengths. He wasn’t up against strong opposition, though, and his next race will no doubt tell us more about whether he has any chance at group level this year.
Edit: thanks judge, we cross-posted. He does look like a nice horse but he still has a way to go yet for this.
I think Red Verdon won’t be without a chance. Has ran in some top races recently and seems to one running on at the business end of races so the step up in trip shouldn’t hold much fear. Trainer Ed Dunlop has a pretty good record with his better horses over the longer trips and they must rate this one highly considering the amount of supplementary entries he’s been put in which also suggests he probably wasn’t as good as first thought otherwise he’d already have held entries so looks to be one that has improved/improving, I’ve took a chance at 12’s anyway.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Call me bonkers but having watched his debut today I reckon Crimean tatar is a stone bonkers certainty for the St Leger.
Good call there seaing stars.
Nice start but that was only poor quality maiden race. The Gosden horse Satish seems to have a problem, he ran a stinker last time and again today. They already shoved the blinkers on him.
The third horse is rated 76 and the standard of this looked poor to be brutally honest.
You can still get 66/1 Crimean Tatar in places for the Leger. Not bad for a certainty. He is as low as 20/1 with firms who love wide margin winners but I feel he has a mountain to climb yet.
Nice prospect but a sense of perspective is required.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Trying to look at something to oppose Idaho in this. Just took 46’s on the exchanges with Robin of Navan.
Won over 10F in France last year and quietly fancied for the French Derby where he sustained a ligament injury during the race.
Confirmed as being aimed at the race with a run in France beforehand planned.
When I put my bet on Across The Stars for the St Leger at 16/1, I also stuck money on him for the Voltiguer at 14/1, as it seemed good value at only 2 pts shorter than for the Classic.
While the horse has shrunk into 3/1 for the York race, there hasn’t really been a penny for him for the Leger itself, which doesn’t make much sense when he is obviously expected to go well in the traditional trial.
Much is being made of the Idaho rating for running in the Derby and Across The Stars has to carry the penalty, since Idaho only ever won a maiden but I don’t like backing maiden winners at short odds in group races.
I am hoping one of my two can win the trail and hold a live chance for the Leger itself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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