- This topic has 100 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
12.20A  The Last Viking Won 5/4<br>2.30A   Percussionist Lost<br>3.25A   Tazbar Won Evens<br>4.20K   The Fifth Member Lost<br>1.40P   Ponchatrain Lost<br>2.10P   My World Lost
(Edited by Factorman at 8:02 pm on Nov. 29, 2006)
3.00L  Reach For The Top Lost<br>3.30L  Tashkandi Lost<br>2.50M  Cheer Us On Lost<br>2.10W Flying Enterprise Won 5/6<br>3.10W Charlies Future Lost
(Edited by Factorman at 10:19 pm on Nov. 30, 2006)
Hey Factorman,<br>I know it’s early days (only 10 days into testing), but what’s your current profit/loss?<br>I found with a system I was working on, the more I narrowed the selections the worse return I got (I think you said about not wanting to narrow the view too much so as to impede good prices), have you noticed any drop in return after applying minor changes? Again I understand it’s early days, but still :).<br>Good luck tomorrow.<br>Naikei
(Edited by Naikei at 12:13 am on Dec. 1, 2006)
Hello Naikei,
The system selections pass the 50 mark after todays runners, so shall be posting the early results tomorrow.<br>Cormack noted the value of Distance winners to most systems and will post those selections as well.
Welcome to the club
Factorman
12.50L  Shade Cozy Lost<br>1.00S   Pouvoir Lost<br>1.30S   Charlies Kings Lost<br>1.55L   Born West Lost<br>2.05S   Granit Jack Lost<br>2.25L   Flittering Rose Lost<br>2.45E   Minella Tipperary Lost<br>4.50W   Joyeaux Lost<br>6.20W   Atlantic Story Won 1/2<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 11:55 pm on Dec. 1, 2006)
Early Results
Total Bets 56<br> Wins 19<br> Losers 37<br> <br> Strike Rate 34%<br> Balance -6.15<br> Loss of 11% on turnover
Distance Winners
Bets 18<br>Wins 7<br>Losers 11
Strike rate 39%<br>Balance +1.45<br>Profit of 8% on turnover<br>
12.40C  Supreme Huntress   Won 2/1<br>12.50W Malko De Beaumont  Lost<br>12.55SN Joli Classical       Lost<br>2.05SN  My Way De Solzen  Lost<br>3.15Sa  Sangreal          Lost<br>3.45K   Valuta            Lost<br>3.50C   Old Benny         Lost<br>4.50K   Inquistress        Won 15/8<br>7.00Wl  Abandon          Won 1/3<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 11:24 pm on Dec. 2, 2006)
Interesting results so far Factorman, I will definatly keep an eye on this post. I take it that the "Distance Winners" is when the Distance filter is applied to your selections?<br>Also, do you take the selections at face value, or do you look into the competition for each race just to be sure?<br>Keep it up and good luck. I look forward to seeing what the future holds :)<br>Naikei
The Distance winner is a filter Naikei, just added it in as a first view to cutting down amount of selections and improving the strike rate if poss.<br>The selections are taken at face value at the moment and waiting for a few more results before looking at possible filters.<br> <br>Todays system runners
12.30K  Kempski Lost<br>12.40W Haunted House Lost<br>1.20L   Danehillsundance Lost<br>2.10W   Misty Dancer Won 9/2<br>2.40W   Killard Point Lost<br>3.10W   Mr Dow Jones Won 9/2<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 6:18 pm on Dec. 3, 2006)
12.10L  Goose Chase lost<br>1.10L   Outer Hebrides Lost<br>1.20F   Altay Lost<br>1.30W   Ballare Lost<br>1.50F    Allaboveboard Lost<br>2.20F    Le Seychellois Lost<br>2.50F    Rebelle Lost<br>3.10L    The Iron Giant Lost
Two possible filters that may be intoduced are distance winners and LTO placing, combining these two filters gives an early probability rating of…..
Distance winner + placed in first 3 LTO = 43%<br>Distance winner but unplaced LTO      =26%<br>NOT (D) winner but placed LTO       =35%<br>NOT (D) winner & not placed LTO     =20%
Evidence is still light weight and there are many more angles to consider but it would be nice to end up with system selections + value indicator.<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 7:48 pm on Dec. 4, 2006)
Factorman,
With distance winners, I believe 5f and 6f on the flat and up to 18f over jumps are not that important. Most horses under both codes, especially the flat, have won at these distances before moving up in distance. I award ratings points to distance winners, but only at 7f+ on the flat and 20f+ over jumps. Maybe worth thinking about.
Thats an interesting point Artemis, shall create a filter with the those distances in mind and run it along side the basic distance filter.
Thanks for your input
Factorman
1.10F  Four For A Laugh Lost<br>1.40F  Flintoff Lost<br>2.10F  Misbehaviour Lost<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 9:45 pm on Dec. 5, 2006)
4.20W   Cross of Loraine Won 8/15<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 10:20 pm on Dec. 6, 2006)
1.20T  Natal Won 2/11<br>2.00H  Frosty Run Lost<br>2.20T  Pretty Star Lost<br>3.10L  Brown Fox Lost<br>4.50W  Casual Affair Lost<br>5.20W  Desert Opal Won 2/1<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 9:32 pm on Dec. 7, 2006)
12.10C  Aces Four Lost<br>1.00W  Jord Lost<br>2.30C   Daryal Lost<br>3.40C   French Saulaie Lost<br>4.50K   Annia Faustina Lost<br>5.20K   Cesc Won 4/9<br>
(Edited by Factorman at 10:01 pm on Dec. 8, 2006)
11.30S  Elusive Warrior Won 4/6<br>12.20C  Katchit Won 7/4<br>12.35S  Depraux Lost<br>1.30C   Blazing Bailey Lost<br>2.15S   Flame Creek Won 3/10<br>2.25M   Only Vintage Won 9/4<br>3.45C   Labelthou Lost<br>4.30W  Foreign Language Lost
Pass the 100 bet stage after today and I think its safe to say that there is a fair amount of dead wood to cut out.
(Edited by Factorman at 9:49 am on Dec. 10, 2006)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.