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Hi Artemis,
I’d say that the Topspeed figures for Doncaster, Saturday last are unreliable again. No account taken of differing wind conditions for races over the straight / round courses, or the likely impact on the ground of rain that fell during racing.
Last week was very quiet with only fair flat racing on turf.
A few decent races at Longchamp produced some 90+ figures, but the ground was very heavy and these ratings will probably not hold up on better ground. Leopardstown had a couple of classic trials, but I don’t think we saw any performances that will have a bearing on the classics. Saorsie Abu, who had top-class form last season was very disappointing.
The 7f handicap(soft) at Newcastle on Saturday was a decent race judged on the speed rating. Markab(97) and Fishforcompliments,98, look as though they can do well in the next few weeks. Neither is a soft ground specialist, so they could pop up anywhere, even with a 5 or 6lbs hike in the handicap.
- Total Posts 84
Hi Artemis, All,
I’ve just finished reading a fascinating library book by someone called Potts, called "The Inside Track". It’s a good ten years old, but, amongst other things, it deals with speed figures and Mr Potts says he’s had some very good results by designing his own and placing bets with them in mind.
Does anybody know the book I’m talking about and/or have any ideas on speed figures, in particular making your own rather than using those published in "Racing Post"?
I think the basic idea is that speed figures are particularly useful on the all-weather, in races up to and including 10 furlongs. Mr Potts doesn’t, it seems, think much of those based on the standard times mentioned in the "Post", as he says those times are based on 100-rated types, rather than on the typical 70-ish sorts you get on the sand.
Like I say, I’d be interested to hear whether anyone has any particular views or ideas.
Regards,
Brian
Hi Brian
Alan Potts posts regularly on the forum under the username "apracing".
From what I have garnered from both his books and his infrequent posts on his modus operandi, he wouldn’t use speed ratings as often nowadays due to the fact that are rather more "fashionable" nowadays than the days when he produced his own raw data.
Obviously I stand to be corrected on this point by the man himself but don’t know if he looks in on this section of the forum.
bcsim999,
Alan(Potts) has a very good point with regard to speed ratings on the AW.
The tracks are generally easier to read than their turf counterparts and can produce ratings that are more consistent than those where the ground changes markedly from week to week.
Also, as Alan says, RP standards are those expected of very useful horses rather than the moderate animals that populate the majority of AW races, so a lot of speed ratings compilers use their own standards. Personally, I don’t think it matters very much provided you are consistent with your application of the standards.
Speed ratings are now widely available, usually at modest cost, so the advantage of possessing such information no longer gives shrewd punters like Alan the edge he once had by using them.
Another very quiet week, just a few races at Doncaster on Saturday to note. The going was slightly softer than the meeting three weeks earlier, but it wasn’t too testing and ratings should stand up in future races.
Northern Fling(90) proved that he is worth following this season by winning the 5f sprint when apparently unfancied(20/1) – although he was tipped on another thread here. Acts on any going and effective at 5 or 6f. He will pop up again when things go right.
Don’t Panic(105) who was flagged up here after his impressive Doncaster success at the last meeting ran an excellent race again, but couldn’t hold his stablemate Medicinal Path(110). Both are very useful animals and are worth following in similar or even slighly higher grade. Babodana(100) ran to his best, but he is a ‘placepot’ horse, having not won for ages.
Blythe Knight(102) is a grand horse who will surely win some good races in listed/G3 races given soft ground. In handicaps, he runs well enough, but there are usually a few well-handicapped horses there to beat him.
The coming week looks better with some decent classic trials.
Newmarket, Tuesday 16th April.
The first day of the Craven meeting produced slow times consistent with soft ground, although it was reported to be dead rather than soft. I don’t believe there will be any exceptional times, perhaps only a few higher than my benchmark of 90+.
Friday 18 April
In the 6.05 Yarmouth, Mia’s Boy bids to follow up his recent success on heavy ground at Doncaster. As previously noted, the horse is improving and should not be stopped by the hike in the ratings. However,I would set a minimum price of 2/1 in view of the different conditions today.
Won by a short head at 10/11. Not backed.[/color:1m6gavv9]
He got home O.K. but there was no value there at all . This thread is developing nicely – shame about the soft ground at Newmarket this week – but as the ground dries out (hopefully) over the coming weeks I am sure that we will see some decent performances on the clock.
There are three runners at Newbury tomorrow(Saturday 19th April) which I’ve already noted this season.
Gower Song goes in the John Porter(Group3) over 12f at Newbury. The round course seems quite slow judging by today’s times, but she acts on any going(probably better suited by fasterground). I’ll be having a small bet.
In the Spring Cup over a mile, Markab and Capable Guest have both shown solid form already on easy ground, so again I’ll be having a small bet on both.
Edit: Saturday morning
Gower Song is drifting in the betting, which suggests to me that the ground may be too soft for her, but I still believe she can run a fair race. Currently 17.5 Betfair.
Markab is fairly solid at around 9/1, but Capable Guest has no friends at all and is any price(40 Betfair). He is really a better ground horse, so I’m not surprised, but his last run on soft was decent and the form has also been franked. [/color:ydew57hz]
Results:
Gower Song was 6th/14 at 14/1, never really got into it, seeming unable to pick up on the tiring ground. Needs better ground to show her best, as I thought.Markab led for about 6f of this mile race, but didn’t get home on the ground. 5th/17 at 9/1. I think the step up in class beat him rather than the distance or the ground. Capable Guest finished 7th at 20/1, ran ok, I think he is aimed a bit high at the moment and might be better conceding weight to lower grade horses.[/color:ydew57hz]
The stand-out performance on the clock at the Craven meeting – both days of which were run on good ground in my book – came from Bronze Cannon in the closing 10F handicap. My time rating for him is 106 (RPR 104), suggesting that both he and the narrowly-defeated runner up can make their mark in a better grade. Is that Godolphin reaching for the cheque book that I hear?
For info., figures for the 2 Classic ‘trials’ are Infallible 95 & Twice Over 109 -the latter a respectable enough figure nowadays for this type of race, without providing a strong positive signal for the 2,000.
Looking back over the week at the best at 90+ from the Topspeed ratings:
Monday 14 April
Windsor Gd-sft
Bonnie Charlie(90) looked the winner from 3f out.
A fast time for a 2yo in April.
Should win again.Tuesday 15 April
Nottingham Soft
Jaser(90) won the mile handicap going away.
Even if he goes up 8lbs, which is likely, he is worth
following.Wednesday 16 April
Newmarket Gd-sftThe 2yo, Art Connoissuer(96) goes to the top of the table
for his age. An impressive display, he looks to have a bright future.The Free handicap form looks very solid(as it should be).
Stimulation(103) is improving and he will need to find a bit more to feature in the
2,000 gns.Infallible,98, could be anything. the way she took the rest of the field apart in the Nell Gwyn
She should be even better next time(she will have to be), and looks a worthy candidate for the 1,000gnsCampanologist(101) and Kandahar Run(100) are two 3yos that could make their mark this season
at middle distances.Thursday 17 April
Newmarket Gd-sft
The Abernant form should hold up if you can believe that the first four home all ran to their very best form. Zidane(113), Assertive(117), Dark Missile(107), and Sonny Red(112) are all future candidates for minor Group race success. They will be asked to hump big weights if they contest the very best handicaps. War Artist(108) caught the eye of the race readers and is one to note over 7f next time.In the Craven Stakes, Twice Over(114) and Raven’s Pass(114) both posted figures that entitle them to serious consideration for top honours this season. Raven’s Pass goes for the 2,000gns and will be hard to beat if it dries out. Twice Over should stay beyond 8f and has more options later in the season.
The 10f handicap produced two performances that marked both horses down as potentially better than handicappers.
Bronze Cannon(104) and Doctor Fremantle(103) are both well above their present official ratings, even allowing for a probable 10lb+ hike after this display, so they should have a valuable prize at their mercy before they go on to listed races.Ripon Heavy
Cobo Bay(102) gave weight and a beating to his opponents in the 0-95 handicap, benefitting from a fine front running ride from Darryl Holland. He is progressive and can win again given good ground or softer. His only poor run was on firmer ground.
I’m still waiting for the Newbury ratings.
Scallywag,
Thanks for sharing your ratings. I know they are different from those of Topspeed due to a slightly different approach and a disagreement about(crucial) standard times. Interesting to compare and contrast, two heads being better than one.
I wish I had more time to devote to calculating ratings, rather than just taking them as given(by Topspeed) and trying to interpret them with the assistance of the RP analysis. I get to watch a fair bit of racing and I’m sure there is no substitute for controlling your own unique ratings and forming your own opinion based on what you see. Alas, time is always pressing and I must trust the Racing Post. But, I realise there will be other valued and respected opinions, which is why this particular thread could prove very useful in the season ahead.
Here is my current list (up to April 17th) of horses to follow over the next few months. These horses have all recorded speed figures(Topspeed) close to their best form in recent months.
Art Connoisseur(2yo)
Blythe Knight
Bonnie Charlie(2yo)
Bronze Cannon
Capable Guest
Cobo Bay
Creachadoir
Doctor Fremantle
Don’t Panic
Finsceal Beo
Fishforcompliments
Flying Clarets
Gower Song
Infallible
Jaser
Markab
Medicinal Path
Mia’s Boy
Mourilyan
Northern FlingThey are, typically, horses that may be underestimated by the betting public to some extent. Several other horses, more exposed, have been mentioned in the thread, but I think these horses(e.g. Twice Over) will be very well known to everyone and their odds may be prohibitive when they appear. I’ve left 2yos in the main list to highlight their relative abilities on the clock.
It was interesting that both the Spring Mile Winner and Lincloln winner came from the same side. Don’t Panic has been hiked up from an OR of 92 to 104 Ouch!
Looking at the far side in the Lincoln Escape Route ran well on his return to turf judged against Blythe Knight who has been raised to 112 after the race. Escape Route has dropped to 93 from 95. He is beautifully bred with a nice blend of speed and stamina and has won a 9f race last season on Gd/frm off 91. (Doncaster was Good/Soft)
Escape Route is only lightly raced for a 4 yr old and his shrewd trainer will certainly find a nice race for this one.
Good Luck
Monster
Won (Crap Odds) at Great Leighs 4.20
Good Luck
Monster
Monster,
I’d noted your observations about Escape Route, but thought(like you) that he wasn’t an attractive bet given the unknown track.
Friday 18th April
Newbury
gd-sft on the straight course, soft on the round course.Huzzah,98, and Generous Thought,100, who filled the first two places in the 7f handicap, are both ahead of the handicapper.
In the 10f conditions stakes, the soft ground was a bit of a test for the 3yos.
Unnefer,102, and Bougereau,101, are progressive and should win more races. Maybe short of top-class, but could be minor group race or top class handicappers.Oldjoesaid,96, is evidently well regarded, but the time was nothing special today. A slight negative.
Thirsk
Old Blue Spinnaker,90, is enjoying a revival on his favoured soft ground and can certainly win again even allowing for a hefty rise in the handicap.Saturday 19th April
Newbury
gd-sft straight course, soft round course.Moyenne Corniche,91, impressed in the 8f maiden and can go on to better things. He has a bright future.
The 7f Greenham Stakes produced a smart performance from Paco Boy 110 and Bob’s Surprise 108. I thought these figures looked on the high side, but Scallywag also gave the race a similar rating. I will be very interested in both of these horses wherever they go next. I particularly liked Paco Boy, who stuck his head out in the manner of a very genuine type of horse.
The 10f handicap winner, Ezdiyad 92 is a 4yo who could win a few nice handicaps this year before his rating goes up too much.
I note horses that earn Raceform speed ratings above what would be expected (given the classes in which they are competing), at distances up to a mile. The selections do pretty well on the all weather (even since the introduction of Polytrack); they are less consistent on turf.
Some people knock Split Second for discounting weight; but it is easy to add weight to the ratings if you want (adjust original weighting to 10 stone; readjust to weight carried on the day). He’s also charged with overrating performances at minor tracks. That may have been true, once, but seems not to be now — the ratings he assigns at Folkestone, say, are roughly what you’d expect.
My general impression — not backed, I must admit, by any rigorous analysis — is that Split Second’s ratings are sounder than Topspeed’s.
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