- This topic has 96 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 1 month ago by
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- Posts
Gee Mr Forecast, don’t tell everyone what you’re doing – your good prices might disappear!
I recommend you give good consideration to deleting the penultimate post.
- Total Posts 55
Lets hope tomorrows racing is better than Geralds meringue!!!
- Total Posts 55
Mr F.
Why dont you post your selections before racing tomorrow?
I investigated something similar to Mr Forecast in 1987 and 1988. I had every copy of the Racing Post. Looked at horses that were toprated on Topspeed, and were at least 4lbs clear on Postmark. Topspeed rating had to be achieved last time out. Restricted it to 2yos, May to September I think. Bigger profits with forecasts. Funny thing is, I can’t remember whether it was best with the Postmark second-rated, or Topspeed. Probably the former. Can’t remember restriction on race size (lower as well as upper) or on days since last run. Didn’t persevere with it (got a job), or ever check out whether it still works.
For the past few years I have always believed that if my analysis of a race is good enough or accurate enough to pick the winner, then I’ve got a much better chance of getting the second as well, so I’ve been intellectually in favour of forecasts. The thing that is funny is that I have never extended this thought until now to if SOMEONE ELSE’S analysis of a race is accurate enough to pick the winner, then bigger profits may be achievable by doing forecasts.
if you would of carried that on since 88 gerald then yr database would be worth a pretty penny
you are spot on with what im doing now…….the biggest problem is understanding the speed handicap method which is quite simple with the right info………..
the industrys produce sheets before a race and speed and handicapping is the biggest persueder…………..it can be very confussing if its not understood properly which the industry relies on………………its time consumming but it is the only method i have used which does work,producing great regular profits……………the choices are vast from picking the top two speed rated and betting single using other methods of elimination,then forecasting the top two and of course the place pot and then using the handicap method and you soon have horses which fit in to all catagories
with my stats i can easily discard a tracks performance which has reduced my losses by loads,which is now showing good profits
the biggest problem is most of the speed handicapping books come from america and we dont use the same layouts as them so trying to learn the american way can confuse matters more……….they use seconds per distance on tracks which are nearly all the same
lingfield 2mora
handicapp
gibbriver–bernie bolt
speed
gibb river
dark quest
handicap
uig—sahara sunshine
speed
uig
cayman sky
handicap
rehabilitation–heart ease
speed
heart ease………vinces
handicap
farmer giles—–school boy champ
speed
farmer giles—-bramble berry
handicap
ramamara—aintwogrand
speed
new york lights—mind the monarch
handicap
freepressionist—–davids mark
speed
freepressionist—–kingsgate castleright here are two of my lists speed and my handicapping bit………..if the ground gets changed which lucky for me it wont then i would have to go back and do it all again so this is why i do it minutes before the race just to check
we have three horses each race…….if you have four then i would either leave it or do more home work, i will use these horses and just before the off i will make my decissions on the betting ,looking for any jockey changes,quotes,betting patterns ect bla bla
now dont think that because a horse is in two sections that it will win,in my opinion it has the highest chance
its taken about 20 mins to go through all these horses but normaly i would take my time,its not a rush decission you want to take
now if a few more put there selections up we might end up with a few good bets by comparison- Total Posts 55
Look forward to it.
How long does it take to do a meeting?
date track w pl fc track win place 4casts days placed bets
08/07/09 lingfield 2 3 1 lingfield 19 26 7 6 45 66
15/07/09 lingfield 4 6 2 1r
18/07/09 lingfield 2 7 1
22/07/09 lingfield 5 6 2
25/07/09 lingfield 1 2 0
01/08/09 lingfield 5 2 1date track w pl fc track win place 4casts days placed bets
05/07/09 brighton 2 3 0 brighton 11 21 2 6 32 80
06/07/09 brighton 1 3 0
14/07/09 brighton 1 6 0
30/06/09 brighton 5 2 2
05/08/09 brighton 2 4 0
06/08/09 brighton 0 3 01r=a reverse forecast
06/07/09 mussle 4 1 1 mussleb 12 9 3 3 21 40
29/06/09 mussle 5 4 2
30/07/09 mussle 3 4 0lingfield place pot
Leg Selection
1 4, 3
2 4, 10
3 2, 14
4 2, 4
5 1, 6
6 8, 10
64 lines at £0.50 each
Total Stake: £32.00how did brambleberry just beat farmergiles……had 10 on farmer giles to win and 10 on brambleberry place only farmer had ran above the 90s and brambley had managed 86
- Total Posts 55
Not sure whether that was good or bad!!!
Brambleberry 1st 10-1 not after timing advertised on my blog but never expected it to be an E.W. price.
Then the fun begins with Kingsgate Castle backed from 10-1 down to 7-2 gets badly hampered and out with the washing after 2f.
Baby Josr drifts from 10-1 out to 16-1 gets badly hampered by Miss Tikitiboo and finishes like an express train to grab second.
Obviously I have made money on the day but still feel I have been robbed of a 16-1 winner.
Perhaps focusing on tomorrow’s Lingfield meeting will quiet this uneasy feeling I have inside!!
lingfield being the aw and speed being achieved best on aw then you would of thought lingfield would be the best
oh no not today
lingfield
1 winner–1 placed–12 horses ……..
brighton 4 won–5 placed one reverse forcast–14 horses
worcester
5 winners-5 placed-3 forecasts-1 reverse forecast–14 horses
biggest winner 30/1 chinaramussle first race has hit the forecast too
now if a few more put their selections up we might end up with a few good bets by comparisonI quite like this idea, but I think it would mainly work for the Scoop6 on Saturdays, or for races on terrestrial TV – a sort of Scoop6 Brains’ Trust.
I’m not too sure that there are many people who do their own speed ratings – they don’t seem to talk about it anyway.
I didn’t realise that I had some input that could have been useful – I didn’t finish it until 3pm anyway. You might have come across my thread in the Daily Lays & Plays section, where I am looking at the Genetic Strength Values of 2yos during the month of August. I am mainly interested in the Dam’s GSV, as the data I have is about 3 years out-of-date, so the 2yo’s GSV figure is fairly useless, but the figures of the parents won’t have changed much during that time.
Friday 7th August 2009
3.40 Lingfield 5f Novice
Dosage Profile [b:euvcm8ks] Total Points My Adjusted [/color:euvcm8ks] GSV 2005 [/color:euvcm8ks] Sire’s GSV [/color:euvcm8ks] Dam’s GSV [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] Form Horse Sire
2 0 14 2 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 18 18 [/color:euvcm8ks] 53.83 [/color:euvcm8ks] 76.56 [/color:euvcm8ks] 50.86 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 02163 Craicattack Arakan Non-runner
[/color:euvcm8ks]3 2 7 1 1 [b:euvcm8ks] 14 22 [/color:euvcm8ks] 59.64 [/color:euvcm8ks] 74.95 [/color:euvcm8ks] 63.53 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 62318 Farmer Giles Danroad
1 1 3 0 1 [b:euvcm8ks] 6 14 [/color:euvcm8ks] 52.61 [/color:euvcm8ks] 67.94 [/color:euvcm8ks] 55.4 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 1 Schoolboy Champ Trade Fair
1 3 4 0 1 [b:euvcm8ks] 8 12 [/color:euvcm8ks] 62.7 [/color:euvcm8ks] 71.92 [/color:euvcm8ks] 62.72 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 185 Brambleberry Cape Cross 1st 10/1[/color:euvcm8ks]
6 3 14 1 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 24 40 [/color:euvcm8ks] 71.5 [/color:euvcm8ks] 74.71 [/color:euvcm8ks] 77.09 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] Debut Elusive Trader Elusive Quality 2nd 13/2
[/color:euvcm8ks]6 3 11 0 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 20 28 [/color:euvcm8ks] 61.83 [/color:euvcm8ks] 72.06 [/color:euvcm8ks] 72.12 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 30 Lady Royal Oak Exceed And Excel (3rd 7/2)
[/color:euvcm8ks]4.10 Lingfield 6f Fillies’ Seller
Dosage Profile [b:euvcm8ks] Total Points My Adjusted [/color:euvcm8ks] GSV 2005 [/color:euvcm8ks] Sire’s GSV [/color:euvcm8ks] Dam’s GSV [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] Form Horse Sire
0 0 0 0 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 0 4 [/color:euvcm8ks] 46.97 [/color:euvcm8ks] 58.40 [/color:euvcm8ks] 51.19 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 6565 Aintwogrand Acclamation
1 0 1 2 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 4 8 [/color:euvcm8ks] 60.71 [/color:euvcm8ks] 63.53 [/color:euvcm8ks] 66.50 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 0 Lake Nakuru Bahamian Bounty
4 0 4 0 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 8 8 [/color:euvcm8ks] 53.28 [/color:euvcm8ks] 59.97 [/color:euvcm8ks] 64.45 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 44056 Mind The Monarch Mind Games 3rd 6/1[/color:euvcm8ks]
4 1 11 2 2 [b:euvcm8ks] 20 28 [/color:euvcm8ks] 64.00 [/color:euvcm8ks] 76.56 [/color:euvcm8ks] 70.03 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] U095 New York Lights Statue Of Liberty 2nd 16/1[/color:euvcm8ks]
3 3 6 0 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 12 20 [/color:euvcm8ks] 58.90 [/color:euvcm8ks] 67.07 [/color:euvcm8ks] 67.97 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 008 Precious Coral Elusive City Non-runner[/color:euvcm8ks]
3 1 12 0 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 16 16 [/color:euvcm8ks] 60.66 [/color:euvcm8ks] 65.17 [/color:euvcm8ks] 73.70 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 6 Ramamara Trans Island 1st 15/8 fav[/color:euvcm8ks]
1 3 8 0 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 12 28 [/color:euvcm8ks] 56.55 [/color:euvcm8ks] 61.37 [/color:euvcm8ks] 69.04 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 2 Rescent Reset
4 2 6 4 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 16 16 [/color:euvcm8ks] 53.61 [/color:euvcm8ks] 78.25 [/color:euvcm8ks] 45.83 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] Rulbin Realta Jendali Non-runner[/color:euvcm8ks]
0 1 4 1 0 [b:euvcm8ks] 6 6 [/color:euvcm8ks] 48.99 [/color:euvcm8ks] 65.44 [/color:euvcm8ks] 49.90 [/color:euvcm8ks] [/b:euvcm8ks] 8725 Steeley Flyer Needwood BladeI hit the crossbar with the 3.40, the two highest (77.09 and 72.12) coming 2ns & 3rd. I went to bed at 4, so I missed the 4.10. Forecast up, 73.70 and 70.03, 15/8 and 16/1, csf £32.29.
Thing is, you had both Ramamara and New York Lights amongst your horses, so when they cropped up in mine as well, that might have prompted you to do that forecast. It is the thing that Actuary wrote about not looking at one figure in isolation, but having other things that back it up.
I’m having a bit of trouble keeping up, as I can only cope with about 4 races a day, and there were 10 non-nursery 2yo races yesterday!
I’ve done about 30 races so far, but the only other Dam’s GSV forecast up was yesterday, Bab At The Bowster’s race, £9.97 [edit: erm, this is wrong. I somehow managed to overlook that there is a toprated, so the 1st and 2nd in the race were 2nd and 3rd toprated.]
The thing is, forecasts are very variable – there could be none up next week, or there could be 3 or 4.
This thread seems to have degenerated slightly into a who backed what today thread. Well, for my part I was beaten a nose with Miss Pusey Street in the Brighton Seller, despite trading at less than her eventual conqueror, who, people, who read the Lansdowne Fillies thread won’t be surprised I did because of her family connections to Mornin Reserves and Pusey Street Lady et al. Didn’t much feel like betting after that.
Well done with your Worcester winner. I had a go at Worcester a couple of weeks ago, without much success, so I didn’t persevere. I’d have definitely have been on it with the Tail End System, as it was only 5 lbs higher than when being placed at Worcester, penultimate start. I also have a recently developed penchant (this year) of backing horses that are owner-trained, or family owned -trained. No complaints though, as I know I’ll get plenty of big winners when I start it up again in a few weeks time.
newmarket
race 1–no speed figures
race 2-6 winner every race–2 placed—–1 forecast–10 horses
haydock
1 won–5 placed–1 forecast–12 horses
musslebo
2 won–4 placed–1 forecast–14 horsesafter a bad lingfield which saw me over 35 points (10.00 per point)down……….brighton being the worst track performed better than lingfield and i skipped brighton…..worcester was a great day……biggest top speed being 30/1 chinara,which was a well need recovery
in the evening newmarket produced 5 winners out of six races and i didnt bet the first so 100%……..haydock saw mainly placed and musslebo produced a few small winners
now i studied the speed yesterday with a fine tooth comb and i just can seem to understand why the top two did not perform at lingfield………..its proves one thing that you need to do all the tracks as you never know
2 selections per race
first named best h/cap
2nd named top speed210H,ONE WAY OR ANOTHER / FLIPANDO
225N,RECESSION PROOF / SPEED HORSE TOP AS WELL
240H,DUNCAN / CAMPONOLOGIST
315H,DANCOURT / LIBEL LAW
335N,CASTLES IN THE AIR / SPLENDORINTHEGRASS
345R,EIGHT HOURS / PINTURAcheers Taff
2 selections per race
first named best h/cap
2nd named top speed210H,ONE WAY OR ANOTHER / FLIPANDO
225N,RECESSION PROOF / SPEED HORSE TOP AS WELL
240H,DUNCAN / CAMPONOLOGIST
315H,DANCOURT / LIBEL LAW
335N,CASTLES IN THE AIR / SPLENDORINTHEGRASS
345R,EIGHT HOURS / PINTURAcheers Taff
i have
210h coco bay–flipando
225n recession proof
240h capanologist/staying on
315h rebarlow–ilie nastase
335n tagdeyr–castles in the air
345r pintura-oondiri- Total Posts 55
Two reasonable E.W. bets in my top rated on the AW today but neither are likely to be E.W. prices currently showing at 5-1 & 7-1 so I will bow out gracefully today and just watch with interest.
All ratings are on my blog for those interested.
Two meetings to get my teeth in to on Monday with Southwell and Wolverhampton.
what a bad two days racing
im not sure if its just me but speed and handicapping has played very little in the last two days
redcar performed best yesterday and again lingfield was a wash out
and to say that my top two speed raters are some of the lowest odd horses ive seen in a long time
the forecasts are no longer worth doing some times as both are odds ondown 15 points on the day
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