- This topic has 16 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Ok I’m pushing it call it a big race but the handicapper aint half giving Le Breuil a chance in this off 135 , placed in better races in the 140s last season he,s surely got to go very close here , 5s looks a cracking price
Game Line 9/2 is well top on my figures. Has moved through the grades and ran into a rapid improver at Cartmel last time. Course, going and distance are no problem and has won off a break.
While he,s improving Game line finished 2nd behind a 120 horse last time, he,s going to have to improve a lot again the beat the horses at top weight
At risk of seeming facetious, that’s what handicaps are about, allowing horses of differing abilities to compete on more or less level terms. In this case the 120 rated horse ran off a mark of 103 and has since gone on to win in twice including beating Empire De Maulde who was a decent winner of an open handicap at Kelso recently. By no menas guaranteed that Game Line has something in hand but at now 5/1 in a place he doesn’t look a bad bet to take chance with.
for the record my top 4 here are:
164 Game Line
151 Gleno
140 Premier D’Troice
139 Le BreuilTop two both generally progressive on balance of form, Game Line higher by virtue of the further progressive made by his race conqueror.
I understand the concept Rob , I prefer to go with horses that have proved to be 140 + horses against horses who have yet to deliver that form , game line is in good form but he has tried an extreme distance one before and was beaten miles off 97 , will no doubt a better horse now Le Brueil even on the downgrade looks better value
HDLG – Added my ratings on to previous post, bit delayed due to some communications problems at this end!
Gleno at 5-2 is my bet here. I don’t actually think that 5-2 is that fair a price overall, but he is my idea of the winner.
HDLG – He’s won over 3m 2f at Carlisle and non-stayers don’t win there. I’d attach more significance to that than a pootle around 3m 5f at Fakenham. Anything that wins over this trip at Fontwell has to genuinely see it out. For all that the track is tight the finish can be a slog and not for the faint hearted.
I did say that I’d seen the 3m 5 form , we,ll see soon enough , I hope even though he not as good as he was Le Breuil class will get him through , played e.w so I’ll disappointed if he doesn’t go close
On overall form, ignoring recent form:
166 Le Breuil
164 Game Line
152 Rose Of Aghaboe
151 GlenoThis is a more blunt instrument than the recent figures. The top rates are mixture of those coming out of decnet races with good form and those beaten a long way and given some latitude by the handicapper. The overall form rating can be useful but filters need to be applied. On balance Game Line still looks the precentage call to me.
Well that result batted our discussions out of the park!
Le Breuil first to come under pressure and drop away, and Gleno not long after. Market suggested Game Line has spent the last 3 months eating and not taking enough exercise…, dropped through the field like a stone on the final bend.
A couple of notes from the Stewards Report on this one:
Following the race, Tabitha Worsley reported that ROSE OF AGHABOE (IRE), placed fourth, hung and jumped left-handed throughout and the Veterinary Officer reported that ALMAZHAR GARDE (FR), placed second, bled from the nose.
Likely Almazhar Garde will need a bit of a rest after that race.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.