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Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 1:37 am on May 8, 2007[br]
…. so I’m game for an experiment if you are. When I get a free day, I will look at the prices at 11:30 and make a note of every horse they are longest and shortest about and see what level stakes profit/loss you would make. Then we can decide one way or the other would you agree?<br>
FlatSeason,<br>An interesting challenge, in principle.<br>However, using Hills/Corals as a benchmark comparison to Ladbrokes prices would I believe, lead to false conclusions. Hills or their Corals counterparts are not noted for "giving much away".<br>Now if it were P Power or Cashmans etc, the experiment might prove to have some merit.
For instance, Kauto Star @ 13/8 with Laddies for the Gold Cup did seem averagely generous in comparison ton Hills/Corals, but when contrasted with the 5/2 on offer from Chronic(le) Bookmakers it was positively skinny.<br>
But isn’t the point. The evidence you used to back up your point was what was said on The Racing on Channel 4. When does he say sporting odds knew? When does he say betoddoreven knew? When does he say paddy power knew? When Big Mac says Ladbrokes knew he is only comparing them to the other 3, possibly 4 bookmakers. Sporting Odds will push prices right out I know that for a fact, they change their prices if someone sniffs at one, if you took their best prices throughout the day you would not be far off 100% book.
Did Sporting Odds know because they pushed the favourite out to 15/8 when no-one was backing it?
FlatSeason, <br>Quite honestly, I take so very little notice of what Channel 4 says — and even less of what McCririck says!
But I do, rightly or wrongly, take cognisance whenever Ladbrokes "short" or "long" a horse. I never mentioned Ch4 or BigMac ………. someone else did. But, I am absolutely convinced that Ladbrokes have a channel into certain training establishments and have a symbiotic and mutually beneficial relationship with the principals of these "unnamed" establishments.
Yes, I am a leech — a parasite! I admit to reaping the benefits of Laddies superb Intelligence network by taking due diligence of their subsequent prices. I find it as rewarding (and a lot less time-consuming) as concentrated form study.
Did Ladbrokes not stand Teofilio at 5/2 when everyone else was back to 2/1 after the scare?
(Edited by Money on at 8:08 pm on May 8, 2007)
Aha! Snap!!! <br>Adagio is owned by Coolmore, is it not?
So, coming from your opening statement to the Original Poster (quote: "I think you’re a f***ing idiot" ) you now seem to have turned full circle and appear to be agreeing with him.
Not really.
My "****
ing idiot" comment (which was in jest) was about the logic of backing a horse early when you believe that the stable never runs to form when the price drifts.Personally, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to back a favourite if I thought there was a good chance that I’d "know" before the race that it "couldn’t win".
There would be no sense in it.
Particularly in the case of Agagio who’s price was never going to contract that much, even if the market signals were positive.
Steve
Stevedvg,<br>If you had read my first posting assiduously, you may have noticed that I had backed Adagio ante-post. On Friday afternoon I was merely monitoring what was happening in the betting market and was happy enough to see that Ladbrokes were ducking Adagio. It was too late on Friday evening following Ladbroke’s volte-face to do anything bar lay some of my bet off on the exchanges, which I subsequently did. However I still took a hit on my investment.
Unfortunately because of work commitments I do not have access to a PC or laptop at my place of employment, so I sometimes have no option but to take a chance on a horse I fancy and back it early; such as on Sunday when I backed Papal Bull on Sunday morning and watched a videotape of the racing on Sunday night. On King Edward VII form there shouldn’t have been much between him and Sixties Icon; in fact Papal Bull should have had his measure. However after hearing Tanya Stevenson’s ominous words about the negative vibes surrounding Papal Bull, it didn’t surprise me to see him being the first horse to come off the bridal and struggle thereafter, ultimately finishing well beaten.<br>
Quote: from hoofhearted on 7:03 pm on May 8, 2007[br]
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 1:37 am on May 8, 2007[br]
<br>For instance, Kauto Star @ 13/8 with Laddies for the Gold Cup did seem averagely generous in comparison ton Hills/Corals, but when contrasted with the 5/2 on offer from Chronic(le) Bookmakers it was positively skinny.
In which case were Coral/Hills not right to duck Kauto Star, since he has absolutely lagged up?
I am sure that Ladbrokes get some good marks re certain stables, but so do VC re certain yards (certainly Roger Charltons in the past) and I am sure that the boys at Barking and Leeds do to – however, there is more to pricing up a race than whispers and gossip and i would like to see hard evidence that Ladbrokes odds compilers are any shrewder than their counterparts (it may well have been the case a few years ago but I would challenge it now).
Quote: from Smithy on 12:10 am on May 9, 2007[br]
however, there is more to pricing up a race than whispers and gossip and i would like to see hard evidence that Ladbrokes odds compilers are any shrewder than their counterparts (it may well have been the case a few years ago but I would challenge it now).
Smithy, you could well be right. Perhaps the field is levelling out between Lad’s and their competition. It could be that I am possibly over-influenced by Ladbrokes undoubted sharper edge in the field in years gone by, and I accept that maybe nowadays the field is more level between the Big 3. Maybe I am too over-influenced by past occurences and am failing to see the wood for the trees, as it were.
Tomorrow, I will keep an alert eye on oddschecker.com for every race and see if I can determine whether Ladbrokes "shorts" and "longs" are borne out by the race results. I can only do this for the afternoon racing unfortunately. I will particularly note any outstanding Ladbroke discrepancy price (relative to the rest of the spread of bookmakers listed) and see if this gives an indication of the winner/loser of the particular race.
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