Software

[Artemis]

whichedge,

A good read on the subject is an appendix in Nick Mordin’s book, "Winning Without Thinking". It concerns the Hong Kong betting syndicate who used a multiple regression form analysis model to beat the Pari Mutuel. The maths are complex, but the reasoning behind the model makes very interesting reading. I’m sorry I cannot give you more detail, but there are plenty of published academic papers on the internet on this interesting topic.

[whichedge]

Artemis,

Thanks for that pointer, I have another book by Nick Mordin, which is an excellent read, the name of the book escapes me at the moment, I also have a couple of other books, more aimed toward the mathematicians and the mathematics behind the predictions but uses horse racing as examples where statistics can be used with artificial neural network to derive an accurate probability of the out come of a race.

I have looked into it, I have a science degree and thought my maths was good but this stuff just blew me away. There are several pieces of free software available that claim to use neural networks to predict outcomes of events (ie races) from statistics, but the amount of data needed puts this route out of the realms of most.

[cormack15]

Welcome to the forum whichedge

[whichedge]

Why thank you! I’ve been lurking around for a few weeks now just hadn’t posted any comments!

[carlisle]

Hi gang

I am sure alot of the subject matter of this thread strikes a chord with quite a few members of this forum. (me included)

Being from Birmingham I am centrally based and would REALLY be interested in a few of us meeting up to discuss our computer software requirements. We are very unlikely to completely share the same points of view, but I am sure we will have lots of common ground.

I can write simple computer programmes and also have access to large amounts of data. If some sort of division of labour and mutual support could be set-up i would consider this to be a MIRACLE in THF terms… hahahhahaha

Hey! it might be fun

byefrom
carlisle

[whichedge]

Sound good to me – I’m from Coventry so just down the road from you carlisle! I too have a vast amount of data, UK races only from about 1995ish it’s complete from 2000 onwards. My programming skills are very limited but my in can write in T-SQL and SQL database skills are sound.

I’m always on the look out for expanding my knowledge and in doing so hopefully expanding other knowledge as well, and software/computer analysis of racing is definitely something that I’m always willing to explore.

[carlisle]

Hi whichedge

thanks for your reply… so far we have three people that are interested. My main objective is to make sure our data fields/variables are useful enough for a computer to make REAL sense of them.

Horse racing systems tend to rely on low grade data types with rules that are too inherently simple. Its a bit like peeping through a keyhole and just about making out someones foot…..hhhhhaaha

I am interested in viewing the big picture and gaining predictive powers. This can only be achieved with clever analysis that is given a chance to breed within a logical framework.

sorry there’s a KNOCK at the door (i am getting carried away!!!)

byefrom
carlisle

[whichedge]

carlisle

I couldn’t agree more I have looked into the use of predictive software and neural networks and because it looks at the whole picture, well as much of the of picture as you can give it, I believe you are correct and this is the way forward.

Let me know when and where and I’ll be there!

whichedge

[carlisle]

Hi whichedge

from reading some of your postings we seem to be on the same wavelength, which is very encouraging.

I fancy a trip to Towcester racecourse, the atmosphere would be nice and its somewhere new for me to visit. Other interested people are from the south east, so this might be a sort of a halfway house location.

I am flagging this up to see what the reaction is…

byefrom
Gary

[whichedge]

Never been to Towcester, it’s only an hour or so away fro me, so that sounds good.

[carlisle]

Hi everyone

well I had the idea of meeting at Towcester
http://www.towcester-racecourse.co.uk/

8th October seems a long way off…. any other suggestions, or shall be patient?

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hmmmm

plan B is as follows….(having consulted some other wanabee millionaires)

"I think the best option is…

Wolverhampton (evening meeting) on Saturday 4th October

it should be less busy and we can get there in advance of the racing action without being in too much of a hurry."

byefrom
carlisle

[whichedge]

Excellent – just had a look at the Towcester website and entrance is FREE!!

Shame it’s a week day that may present a problem for some – not me as I’m self employed

Lets leave it until closer to the date to see if there are any more takers before we start making arrangements.

[whichedge]

Doh – should have read the rest of the posts before posting that last message!!!!

[whichedge]

Okay. Will check the calendar later – shouldn’t be a problem though.

Hmmmm

plan B is as follows….(having consulted some other wanabee millionaires)

"I think the best option is…

Wolverhampton (evening meeting) on Saturday 4th October

it should be less busy and we can get there in advance of the racing action without being in too much of a hurry."

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi everyone

quite a few people are interested…..

Here’s the list so far
==============
carlisle
PAWRAS
whichedge
jodami
quadrilla

The more the merrier….

byefrom
Gary

[elcartero]

The most succesful one I used at the time was called ‘Form Master’ which was out briefly in the late 1980’s.

It was released by a company in Harrogate who’s name escapes me.

It was very succesful and quite obviously based around VDW’s writings (which was the trigger for me to study VDW in more detail.)

It was taken off the market after about 3 months, it was rumoured at the time that one of the big 3 bookmakers bought the rights and took it off the market.

Brimardon is based in Harrogate…..any connection do you suppose?

Powered by Linux

[Author]

Posts