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shattered, sounds like you have some knowledge of Australian racing?
Can you or any other Australian experts pick out which of So You Think’s opposition in those Cox Plate victories would be competitive in similar 10f Group 1 events over here such as the Eclipse, Irish Champion, Juddmonte International or Champion Stakes at Newmarket?
Hard to say, though i would think at the time El Segundo would have went well,Whobegotyou i am sure wouldn’t have disgraced himself,and maybe old Zipping is a little underrated,won 2 group 1 races,won the Sandown Classic group 2 four years running,and i think placed in 3 cox plates so he is tough and probably racing better as a 9yo than ever.I think it would be interesting to see how the Europeans would go in a Cox Plate,for memory there may have been a couple of runners,for a 3rd placing.
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Personally I rated his Melbourne Cup win 4lbs below his Deauville Grp 2 sh hd win over Manighar in August and 6lbs below his 3rd to Mastery in a Sha Tin Group 1 in December.
MV that’s where you’ve gone wrong. The Deauville race was vastly inferior to the Melbourne Cup ( 6lbs+ min ). I have no doubt whatsoever about that. Mastery is an interesting horse. I dearly wanted him to arrive in Melbourne fit and well last year. He is the perfect MC horse. I think you can get an idea of what rare form Americain was in via HK and Mastery. Americain had never been as competitive against genuine Gr1 animals as he was in Nov/Dec last year.
Again its also important to take into account So You Thinks three day back up on rain soaked ground stepping up six furlongs in trip for the first time conceding weight to the field. What European Gr1 horse would you expect to do that? Has there even been one in the last fifty years?
The Melbourne Cup is a unique race. Rating it accurately and in context takes some practice and knowledge. It’s been a race too tough for many classy European challengers. Strangely some lesser lights from these shores have thrived Downunder.
While no European horse has travelled Downunder and won the Cox Plate horses like Grandera have tried. He was the winner of the Prince Of Wales and Irish Champion that season. He was only able to manage third to Northerly. One ex European has won the race when given a long preparation by a top class Australian trainer ( C.S.Hayes ).
Elvstroem, who would be 5-6lbs inferior ( minimum ) to So You Think, managed second in a D’Ispahan and third in a Prince Of Wales. Northerly at his best would have won a ten furlong Gr1 here. Might And Power at his best would have done a Frankel in a King George or Arc. A few other winners would have been very competitive here in any Gr1 mile.
Looking at the also rans just from the 2010 Cox Plate –
Zipping – Ran pretty much to form again ( not a two miler ) in the MC and beat Manighar over two lengths next time out at Sandown Gr2 12f
Whobegotyou – Would be very competitive at his best over a mile in Europe.
Shoot Out – Derby winning son of High Chaparral capable at Gr2 level here
More Joyous – Would romp through the Gr1 mares mile races here and be competitive against males at that trip ( easily as good as Soviet Song )
Like anywhere not every Cox Plate is a vintage renewal. The same can be said about any Gr1 contest globally. That said, the winners can only beat what’s put before them. Judging winning horses on the placegetters from one race is inconsistent and unreliable to say the least. When you do it across jurisdictions with inaccurate ratings you step out of the pot and into the fire.
Hope this clears the picture further.
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chiswickian / shattered, thanks for the formlines.
Looks like some potentially titanic clashes this summer So You Think v Workforce v Frankel v Goldikova v Canford Cliffs.
And possibly Planteur and Behkabad may sneak onto the radar as well, though personally think Workforce will have their measure again
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I agree Workforce clearly has their ( Planteur/Behkabad ) measure at twelve furlongs. Ten may be a tight contest against Planteur. Not sure we’ll get a chance to witness So You Think at a mile and Frankel/Canford Cliffs at ten furlongs looks remote.
Whobegotyou who so you think beat home in the cox plate is a solid horse, never runs a bad race – Zipping too has had a lot of high finishes in cox plate’s and MC’s. Whobegotyou’s best decent is a mile though, i’ll concede that. I should also probably point out that because whobegotyou runs epicly from behind I enjoy watching him race, so perhaps i’m a bit bias toward him!
I’m a bit befuddled by Planteur and Behkabad. Nick Mordin rates their Grand Prix de Paris and Prix Niel performances incredibly highly. On form I thought Behkabad was a deserved favorite in the Arc, and considered him the equal of Workforce on their best form.
Behk was then disappointing despite not getting clear until late in that race, then ran flat in the BC Turf. Planteur had excuses in the Arc then flat in the HK Cup.
Some think that they ran each other into the ground in the two races before the Arc and I think that may be the case.In any case this an exciting year. Not sure about the 3yos outside of Frankel, but Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs, Sarafina, Workforce, Behkabad, Planteur, and now St Nicholas Abbey staying in training is exciting. Throw in Goldikova, So You Think, and Fame and Glory.
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Are you Australian Shattered?
Yes Admiral i am Australian.
Haha awesome! I am half Aussie and I have a passport on account of my mother being from Sydney…very proud of it too
Love your great filly Black Caviar and was a massive fan of the Diva
So You THink was very exciting first time out, has he always been that massively built because he looked like a tank?!
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My wife is from Nottingham,so was over there last year had my first bet in the UK (sneaking away whilst wife was in hairdresser) couldn’t beleive that you only had to pencil in the horse number and race time on a piece of paper:) I think of the 2 good aussie horses now it may seem some aussies are pushing too hard for them,though i think more of a case of saying that the aussie form shouldn’t be seen as inferior when making an opinion of a horse.
I do not really bet I just love watching the racing and studying the pedigrees and following the big names. I agree though the few times i have been into Ladbrokes in my life it is disturbing that you have to write your own bet slip I would have though a printed ticket would be more advanced!
I would not worry about those form doubters. Timeform have always rated horses that race outside of England and Ireland as inferior. How Canford Cliffs ever got a rating higher than the great mare Goldikova is beyond me. Blame only got 131 for winning all those G1s last year including the Breeders Cup Classic, the same as New Approach who won a Derby where no other horse won a G1 and a mickey mouse G1 at Newmarket.
I am not even going to mention Frankels 142 as it is clearly ridiculous. Cannot wait to see the so called "chosen one" turned over later in the season by the older mile division and everyone will turn around and say "oh he need further" blah blah blah!
The only thing that worries me about the filly is they seem to race her very often over there.
In terms of strong AUS form though look at Starspangledbanner not even the top horse in the country when he left and he came over here and dominated.
Keep faith and do not let the doubters get you down!
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The mare(BC) has settled in well in Brisbane for her next run next Saturday then one more and out into the paddock.Yes they tend to race a bit more here,seems to suit the style of racing here,then usually go out in the paddock for a few weeks to let down and recharge.
How can u knock it . it was undefeated last prep winning everything it went it. only champions win cox plates and it won two, the second one with a leg in the air. his only defeat was in the melb cup , and he didnt get the trip, simple as that. hes to brilliant to win a melb cup. I hope some of the bookies are listening to some of you so i can get better then even money next start.
"Admiralofthefleet" wrote: New Approach who won a Derby where no other horse won a G1 and a mickey mouse G1 at Newmarket.
a) It wasn’t who he beat in the Derby, it was how he did it, and
b) he slammed a triple Group 1 winner at Newmarket.
Would be very interested to read about any time or speed figures produced in Australia for So You Think and how he compares to other top middle horses there in the last 10 or 20 years.
Can any of the Aussie buffs on here point me in the right direction, please?
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