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I know I really ought to know this, but do we know if the state of the ground benefits front-running horses at all?
Also, is there much of a disparity between the flat and NH when it comes to them?
Apologies for asking what is a pretty obvious question!
Cheers
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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Front runners in soft are harder to peg back than front runners on faster ground.
Thats why its wise to start changing your approach come the second part of the season.
Depends on the runner. A free easy lead that hates the going still wont get home most of the time.
There are blasters that normally hate the going ,they get such an easy lead because the rest of the field are hold ups, they still win.so to answer your question Every race is different!!
If its a flat handicap and the going is officially soft or heavy, if the horse your backing hasnt raced prominently in 2 of its last 3 races, or hasnt led in 1 of its last 3 races, the returns are horrific, particularly for horses of 4 years and older.
Mr Wilson making much sense imo.
If its a flat handicap and the going is officially soft or heavy, if the horse your backing hasnt raced prominently in 2 of its last 3 races, or hasnt led in 1 of its last 3 races, the returns are horrific, particularly for horses of 4 years and older.
Mr Wilson making much sense imo.
The Mr Wilson prognosis was a tad simplistic.Imo but that doesn’t mean its wrong.
Simple is good in this case imo. The figures back that up. There will be exceptions of course but big picture you’d go skint bigtime backing hold up horses in flat handicaps run over bad ground.
Simple is good in this case imo. The figures back that up. There will be exceptions of course but big picture you’d go skint bigtime backing hold up horses in flat handicaps run over bad ground.
I cant argue with that but knowing that isn’t going to help somebody looking at "A" race trying to pick a winner.
I hate stats though !! Are the stats different with low and high grades. Without looking I would guess there is?Why wouldnt it help? Narrows the field down straight away. Front 2 in the market using the criteria I mentioned above show almost a 10% loss at BFSP. Gets much worse the further down the prices you go. Sample is much smaller for class 2 and 3 which is profit break even, understandable given turn of foot is a characteristic of ability, class 4 and lower, the loss gets to -15% on the front 2 in the market.
It doesn’t help because before you look at the race you have a preconception that is wrong 90% of the time.Its only my opinion.
Good call in the big race today! Would be interested in your working out of it.
I couldn’t explain without writing too many words but its all pace x course x finishing time.
For what it is worth, my experience as an owner is that whatever the reasons one might decide to front run a horse (assuming the horse is fit)is mostly down to the capability of the jockey in judging the pace of the race. Some jocks are good at that, some are not.
richardI my opinion, the ground doesn’t aid any tactic, so no.
What’s most important for a front runner on ANY going, is pace, when it’s applied, and absolutely nothing else.
I could attempt to elaborate with all sorts of variables, but it will always come back to pace.
"It’s harder to peg back/make ground on front runners in soft ground…"
Not if the chasers get further than the leader, in which case the front runner will just set the race up for those that get the longer trip. I.e, I’d always back the horse that gets 3 miles in a 2 mile chase on soft/heavy, over the horse that has only ever won over 2 miles on soft/heavy as a front runner.
But, again, we come back to pace!
talking of front runners 4.00 bath.
Darryll Holland rides in the race and should get an easy lead.Even if Jim crowley decides to take him on he can win chasing the pace.Out of 10 how do you rate Mr Holland riding in front.I give him an 11!!
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