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KINGS GAMBIT 11/2
No doubt that Passanger is the class horse but coming back from a setback. And think the
Harry Charlton colt can beat him.I think last year’s winner, Alflaila, will take this again. His subsequent 2 races
might not be too reassuring but he completely missed the break in the Irish Champion
Stakes and was still plumb last with 2f to go but ran on best of all to finish 5th just
over 3L to Auguste Rodin. In the Prince Of Wales Stakes he was knocked badly by Auguste
Rodin coming out the stalls, found himself behind again and hit problems twice when trying
to get through. He was a running on 4th, much the same distance behind as in the Irish Champion
Stakes.If he can keep clear of problems I think with a clear run he is up to repeating last year’s
win.Alflaila 5/2
The most visually impressive performance I have seen this year was Kings Gambit at Newbury. He looks a group 1 performer to me and if he wins here expect the current odds of 25/1 for his next race in the Juddmonte to be in single figures.
Passenger is the class act but a lot of will he won’t he run suggests he may not be fully ready
Kings Gambit to make amends for Royal Ascot at 4/1 the 3y/o weight concession looks big enough for him to take advantage.. has looked strong at back end of races this year so I’m not worried about the courseBlackbeard to conquer the World
Race down to 5
King’s Gambit only 3 y/oPassenger
Alflaila
King’s Gambit
Royal Rhyme
Ancient RomeBlackbeard to conquer the World
Down to four now Ancient Rome is out.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
My 100% book for Good-firm:
39% Passenger (between 13/8 and 6/4)
29.5% Kings Gambit (between 5/2 and 9/4)
19% Alflaila (between 9/2 and 4/1)
12.5% Royal Rhyme (7/1)…Which currently makes three horses value in a 4 horse race.
I’ve backed:
Kings Gambit @ an average of 3.99.
Royal Rhyme @ an average of 10.1
with a saver on Passenger @ 2.78Value Is EverythingAll four of these are probably good enough to be in the frame in Group 1 races.
The thing that may be what makes the race as a betting proposition though is the pace. I can see it turning into a slowly run affair.
None of the four are proper “front runners”.
Alflaila has been invariably held up and often dropped right out. Can sometimes take a keen enough hold and therefore settling is the jockey’s first task. So imo he’s the most likely to be disadvantaged by a slow pace. Having to give lengths and quicken past horses who are themselves quickening. That said, has some really good form, you just need to go back a long way to find it.
Passenger has a 3 lb penalty here. Only three starts ago ruined his chance in last year’s Derby by being too free when racing more prominently. Admittedly that was over further than he races here. Dropped out last to settle him on reappearance over this trip before held up last time out in the Huxley. Has fitness to prove after niggly problems kept him out of the POW and Eclipse. Could easily get beaten in this and then return to win the International in a few weeks time.
Kings Gambit was seemingly held up / dropped out last time out, but it looked to me as though he just found himself there after a slow start and shuffled back. Wasn’t that fast away penultimate start either, but was able to make ground up on the inner to track the pace. He actually seems to settle pretty well and with only three rivals I can see Kings Gambit racing more prominently than at Royal Ascot – whether he gets a fast break or not should be able to race in second. Wasn’t far away from the pace when winning his maiden either. Kings Gambit was an unlucky loser at Royal Ascot and more improvement can be expected.
By far the most likely to lead is imo Royal Rhyme. Was not asked to race on the pace last time out, but there were two pacemakers in the POW and he led the rest. It was only in the dying strides that Alflaila pipped Royal Rhyme for 4th. It was Alflaila’s first run for a long time and you’d expect the Hamdan horse to be fitter this time. But Alflaila does have an excellent record fresh, so may not come on that much… And today Royal Rhyme has a probable positional advantage. Ascot seemed to prove Royal Rhyme acts on similar ground to today (most of his form is on softer). Raced in the first two in last year’s Champion Stakes too.Value Is EverythingI’m with King’s Gambit.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Seen a 3m hurdle run faster that that.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Well done BigG
But what was Karl Burke / Clifford Lee doing?
Royal Rhyme shortened significantly in the market when punters thought he’d lead.
Should have laid Royal Rhyme back after Karl Burke said he wouldn’t want Clifford to go to the front.
RR’s form just not good enough in a fair fight so why not try and get a positional advantage?JIm Crowley did very well. Got Alflaila settled out the back before making ground up before they quickened.
Shepherd did the right thing to let Kings Gambit go on, just not the pace of Alflaila.
Kingscote / Stoute seemed not to care about winning, just a piece of work before the Big One / International.
Value Is EverythingI have not seen the race, so I cannot offer an opinion on the quality of Kingscote’s ride. I have seen it questioned elsewhere as well.
The horse sustained an injury to a canon bone which has almost certainly put him out for the season.
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